Feature Analysis of Predictors Affecting the Nidus Obliteration of Linear Accelerator-Based Radiosurgery for Arteriovenous Malformations Using Explainable Predictive Modeling

This study aimed to evaluate prognostic factors associated with nidus obliteration following stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for cerebral arteriovenous malformations. From January 2001 to January 2018, 119 patients who underwent SRS with AVM were studied to analyze major prognostic factors (age, prescription dose (Gy), volume (mm³), nidus size (cm), and Spetzler–Martin (SM) grade) for nidus obliteration. A random forest and tree explainer was used to construct a predictive model of nidus obliteration. The prognostic factors affecting nidus obliteration from most to least important were age, nidus size, volume, total prescription dose, and SM grade, using a predictive model. In a specific case for nidus size (1.5 cm), total dose (23 Gy), and SM grade (2), the result showed a high obliteration score of 0.75 with the actual obliteration period of 6 months spent; the mean AUC was 0.90 in K-fold cross validation. The predictive model identified the main contributing factors associated with a prognostic of nidus obliteration from linear accelerator-based SRS for cerebral AVM. It was confirmed that the results, including the prognostic factors, are potentially useful for outcome prediction for patient and treatment.