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Article

Risk Assessment of Tunnel Face Instability under Multi Factor Coupling Based on Conditional Probability and Tunnel Construction Mechanics

by 1,2, 1,2,*, 1,2, 1,2 and 3
1
Key Laboratory of Urban Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
2
School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
3
Beijing Municipal Construction Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100045, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Asterios Bakolas and Daniel Dias
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(15), 7881; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12157881
Received: 31 May 2022 / Revised: 28 July 2022 / Accepted: 4 August 2022 / Published: 5 August 2022
The factors leading to the collapse of tunnel face are diverse, and there is an interaction relationship between multiple influencing factors at the physical and mechanical level. By analyzing the coupling relationship between the factors affecting the instability of tunnel working face, this paper deduces the calculation method of the coupling effect of tunnel construction risk factors for a certain risk event based on conditional probability theory, and makes reasonable assumptions on the monitoring data and risk probability. Finally, it is verified by a model test. The results show that the tunnel construction risk factors have a coupling effect by affecting other risk factors or changing the physical and mechanical parameters of surrounding rock, in which the coupling amplification effect will significantly change the failure probability of the risk carrier, so it is unfavorable to the stability of the tunnel face. The coupling amplification effect of risk factors will cause the increase of tunnel face extrusion deformation. Even if it causes a small deformation increment, it can also make the transition of risk probability and grade of tunnel face unstable, and cause tunnel face instability collapse. The research results of this paper can quantitatively evaluate and predict the stability of the working face in the process of tunnel construction. View Full-Text
Keywords: conditional probability; risk factor coupling; tunnel face; instability; risk evaluation conditional probability; risk factor coupling; tunnel face; instability; risk evaluation
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MDPI and ACS Style

Huang, M.; Zhang, Z.; Song, Y.; Gao, S.; Yu, C. Risk Assessment of Tunnel Face Instability under Multi Factor Coupling Based on Conditional Probability and Tunnel Construction Mechanics. Appl. Sci. 2022, 12, 7881. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12157881

AMA Style

Huang M, Zhang Z, Song Y, Gao S, Yu C. Risk Assessment of Tunnel Face Instability under Multi Factor Coupling Based on Conditional Probability and Tunnel Construction Mechanics. Applied Sciences. 2022; 12(15):7881. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12157881

Chicago/Turabian Style

Huang, Mingli, Zhien Zhang, Yuan Song, Song Gao, and Chunbo Yu. 2022. "Risk Assessment of Tunnel Face Instability under Multi Factor Coupling Based on Conditional Probability and Tunnel Construction Mechanics" Applied Sciences 12, no. 15: 7881. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12157881

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