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Article

Estimating the Probability Distribution of Construction Project Completion Times Based on Drum-Buffer-Rope Theory

by 1,*, 2 and 3
1
School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215000, China
2
School of Business, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215000, China
3
Institute of Engineering Management, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Mariusz Szóstak, Marek Sawicki and Jarosław Konior
Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(15), 7150; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11157150
Received: 18 June 2021 / Revised: 12 July 2021 / Accepted: 13 July 2021 / Published: 2 August 2021
Various factors affecting the construction progress are regarded as bottlenecks giving rise to the project duration overrun. The contractor should combine the project schedule with the plan in order to reduce the uncertainty of the project activities. The present research describes the method derived from the theory of constraints (TOC) attempts to enhance the relationship among activities, to revise and further reduce the uncertainty of construction activities to improve the reliability of project progress. The elements of drum, buffer and rope (DBR) in TOC are added to PERT network schedule; through the identification of schedule in the bottleneck process, the implementation plan of the bottleneck is obtained. By measuring buffer time and calculating network schedule buffer time as well as feeding time, the relationship among activities and uncertainty of duration are also improved. To illustrate the impact of DBR applications on improving project schedule reliability, a case of hydropower station as an example is illustrated to show enhanced reliability of scheduling. As compared to program evaluation and review technique network (PERT) simulation, the simulation results showed that the uncertainty of construction progress could be reduced if the DBR are well cooperated mutually. View Full-Text
Keywords: construction project; PERT; theory of constraint (TOC); drum-buffer-rope (DBR); construction schedule construction project; PERT; theory of constraint (TOC); drum-buffer-rope (DBR); construction schedule
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MDPI and ACS Style

Liu, X.; Shen, L.; Zhang, K. Estimating the Probability Distribution of Construction Project Completion Times Based on Drum-Buffer-Rope Theory. Appl. Sci. 2021, 11, 7150. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11157150

AMA Style

Liu X, Shen L, Zhang K. Estimating the Probability Distribution of Construction Project Completion Times Based on Drum-Buffer-Rope Theory. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11(15):7150. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11157150

Chicago/Turabian Style

Liu, Xun, Le Shen, and Kun Zhang. 2021. "Estimating the Probability Distribution of Construction Project Completion Times Based on Drum-Buffer-Rope Theory" Applied Sciences 11, no. 15: 7150. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11157150

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