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Open AccessArticle

Neural Network Based Country Wise Risk Prediction of COVID-19

Department of Computer Science, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9019 Tromsø, Norway
Department of Physics and Technology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9019 Tromsø, Norway
Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, Durgapur 713209, India
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(18), 6448;
Received: 11 August 2020 / Revised: 4 September 2020 / Accepted: 11 September 2020 / Published: 16 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Computing and Artificial Intelligence)
The recent worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has opened up new challenges to the research community. Artificial intelligence (AI) driven methods can be useful to predict the parameters, risks, and effects of such an epidemic. Such predictions can be helpful to control and prevent the spread of such diseases. The main challenges of applying AI is the small volume of data and the uncertain nature. Here, we propose a shallow long short-term memory (LSTM) based neural network to predict the risk category of a country. We have used a Bayesian optimization framework to optimize and automatically design country-specific networks. The results show that the proposed pipeline outperforms state-of-the-art methods for data of 180 countries and can be a useful tool for such risk categorization. We have also experimented with the trend data and weather data combined for the prediction. The outcome shows that the weather does not have a significant role. The tool can be used to predict long-duration outbreak of such an epidemic such that we can take preventive steps earlier. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; trend prediction; optimized neural network COVID-19; trend prediction; optimized neural network
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MDPI and ACS Style

Pal, R.; Sekh, A.A.; Kar, S.; Prasad, D.K. Neural Network Based Country Wise Risk Prediction of COVID-19. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 6448.

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