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Article

Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

1
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
2
Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
3
Department of Agronomy, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Christine Fürst
Environments 2021, 8(11), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/environments8110117
Received: 28 July 2021 / Revised: 9 October 2021 / Accepted: 26 October 2021 / Published: 29 October 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on the WaterEnergyFood Nexus)
Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict rice production for three planting seasons under four climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the years 2021 to 2050 in the Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for the local rice cultivar (Ciherang) with historical data using GenCalc software. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.88) and validation (R2 = 0.87, NSE = 0.76). Our results suggest that the predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, and intensifying solar radiation under climate change can reduce the rice yield in all three growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, the impact on rice yield in the second dry season may decrease by up to 11.77% in the 2050s. Relevant strategies associated with policies based on the results were provided for decision makers. Furthermore, to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization of irrigation systems, and integrated plant nutrient management should be developed for farming practices based on our results in the study area. Our study is not only the first assessment of the impact of climate change on the study site but also provides solutions under projected rice shortages that threaten regional food security. View Full-Text
Keywords: MarkSim; DSSAT; climate change; adaptation; rice production MarkSim; DSSAT; climate change; adaptation; rice production
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ansari, A.; Lin, Y.-P.; Lur, H.-S. Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java. Environments 2021, 8, 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments8110117

AMA Style

Ansari A, Lin Y-P, Lur H-S. Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java. Environments. 2021; 8(11):117. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments8110117

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ansari, Andrianto, Yu-Pin Lin, and Huu-Sheng Lur. 2021. "Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java" Environments 8, no. 11: 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments8110117

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