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Open AccessArticle

The 1976 Guatemala Earthquake: ESI Scale and Probabilistic/Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Approaches

1
CNR-ISMAR, Calata Porta di Massa, Interno Porto, 80133 Napoli, Italy
2
INGV-Osservatorio Vesuviano, 80133 Napoli, Italy
3
Independent Researcher, 83100 Avellino, Italy
4
CNR-ISA-Via Roma 64, 83100 Avellino, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2019, 9(9), 403; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9090403
Received: 30 July 2019 / Revised: 16 September 2019 / Accepted: 17 September 2019 / Published: 19 September 2019
A hazard assessment of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake (M = 7.5) was conducted to achieve a better definition of the seismic hazard. The assessment was based on the environmental effects that had effectively contributed to the high destructive impact of that event. An interdisciplinary approach was adopted by integrating: (1) historical data; (2) co-seismic geological effects in terms of Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) scale intensity values; and (3) ground shaking data estimated by a probabilistic/deterministic approach. A detailed analysis of primary and secondary effects was conducted for a set of 24 localities, to obtain a better evaluation of seismic intensity. The new intensity values were compared with the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) distribution estimated using a probabilistic/deterministic hazard analysis approach for the target area. Our results are evidence that the probabilistic/deterministic hazard analysis procedures may result in very different indications on the PGA distributions. Moreover, PGA values often display significant discrepancy from the macroseismic intensity values calculated with the ESI scale. Therefore, the incorporation of the environmental earth effects into the probabilistic/deterministic hazard analysis appears to be mandatory in order to achieve a more accurate seismic estimation. View Full-Text
Keywords: georisk; probabilistic seismic hazard; ESI scale; ground-shaking map; Guatemala; macroseismic intensity georisk; probabilistic seismic hazard; ESI scale; ground-shaking map; Guatemala; macroseismic intensity
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MDPI and ACS Style

Caccavale, M.; Sacchi, M.; Spiga, E.; Porfido, S. The 1976 Guatemala Earthquake: ESI Scale and Probabilistic/Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Approaches. Geosciences 2019, 9, 403.

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