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Open AccessArticle

Use of Macroseismic Intensity Data to Validate a Regionally Adjustable Ground Motion Prediction Model

Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC 3002, Australia
Centre for Sustainable Infrastructure, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2019, 9(10), 422;
Received: 2 September 2019 / Revised: 23 September 2019 / Accepted: 27 September 2019 / Published: 30 September 2019
In low-to-moderate seismicity (intraplate) regions where locally recorded strong motion data are too scare for conventional regression analysis, stochastic simulations based on seismological modelling have often been used to predict ground motions of future earthquakes. This modelling methodology has been practised in Central and Eastern North America (CENA) for decades. It is cautioned that ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) that have been developed for use in CENA might not always be suited for use in another intraplate region because of differences in the crustal structure. This paper introduces a regionally adjustable GMPE, known as the component attenuation model (CAM), by which a diversity of crustal conditions can be covered in one model. Input parameters into CAM have been configured in the same manner as a seismological model, as both types of models are based on decoupling the spectral properties of earthquake ground motions into a generic source factor and a regionally specific path factor (including anelastic and geometric attenuation factors) along with a crustal factor. Unlike seismological modelling, CAM is essentially a GMPE that can be adapted readily for use in different regions (or different areas within a region) without the need of undertaking any stochastic simulations, providing that parameters characterising the crustal structure have been identified. In addressing the challenge of validating a GMPE for use in an area where instrumental data are scarce, modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data inferred from peak ground velocity values predicted by CAM are compared with records of MMI of past earthquake events, as reported in historical archives. South-Eastern Australia (SEA) and South-Eastern China (SEC) are the two study regions used in this article for demonstrating the viability of CAM as a ground motion prediction tool in an intraplate environment. View Full-Text
Keywords: seismic hazard; attenuation; GMPE; crustal model; MMI; intraplate region seismic hazard; attenuation; GMPE; crustal model; MMI; intraplate region
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Tang, Y.; Lam, N.; Tsang, H.-H.; Lumantarna, E. Use of Macroseismic Intensity Data to Validate a Regionally Adjustable Ground Motion Prediction Model. Geosciences 2019, 9, 422.

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