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Geosciences 2018, 8(8), 271; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080271

Modelling the Present and Future Water Level and Discharge of the Tidal Betna River

1
Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
2
Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 58 Gothenburg, Sweden
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 14 June 2018 / Revised: 3 July 2018 / Accepted: 23 July 2018 / Published: 24 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)
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Abstract

Climate change, comprising of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures and sea level rises, increases the likelihood of future flooding in the Betna River basin, Bangladesh. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed to simulate the present and future water level and discharge for different scenarios using bias-corrected, downscaled data from two general circulation models. The modelling results indicated that, compared to the baseline year (2014–2015), the water level is expected to increase by 11–16% by the 2040s and 14–23% by the 2090s, and the monsoon daily maximum discharge is expected to increase by up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. Sea level rise is mostly responsible for the increase in water level. The duration of water level exceedance of the established danger threshold and extreme discharge events can increase by up to half a month by the 2040s and above one month by the 2090s. The combined influence of the increased water level and discharge has the potential to cause major floods in the Betna River basin. The results of our study increase the knowledge base on climate change influence on water level and discharge at a local scale. This is valuable for water managers in flood-risk mitigation and water management. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood; precipitation; water level; discharge; General Circulation Models (GCM); MIKE 21 FM model flood; precipitation; water level; discharge; General Circulation Models (GCM); MIKE 21 FM model
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Islam, M.M.M.; Hofstra, N.; Sokolova, E. Modelling the Present and Future Water Level and Discharge of the Tidal Betna River. Geosciences 2018, 8, 271.

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