Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Fire and Global Warming
3. Fire and Drought
4. Fire–Climate Interaction Is a Moving Target
5. Confounding Factors Affecting Future Fire Regimes
5.1. Interactions between Vegetation Trajectories and Fire Regime
5.2. Population Growth and Future Fires
5.3. Effects of Changing Management Tactics
6. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Reference | Regional Historical Divisions * Record | Region | Vegetation | r2 | Model (Strongest Variables) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[16] | GACC 1984–2010 | NO (N coast/N interior) | forest | 0.54 | July–October fine fuel moisture |
GACC 1984–2010 | NO (N coast/N interior) | non-forest | 0.35 | Prior year April–October T | |
GACC 1984–2010 | SO (sierra/C coast/S cal) | forest | 0.44 | May–July evapotranspiration | |
GACC 1984–2010 | SO (sierra/C coast/S cal) | non-forest | 0.44 | 15 June–15 September T | |
[15] | Bailey 1977–2003 | Sierra (& N coast) | forest/woodland | 0.53 | Sum ppt, prior win ppt |
Bailey 1977–2003 | CA chaparral | chaparral/woodland | 0.54 | Prior winPDSI, sumppt, 2 prior | |
Bailey 1977–2003 | CA woodland | woodland/grass/chap | 0.47 | Sum ppt, prior win temp, spr T | |
[4] | NOAA/USFS 1910–1959 | Sierra (C&S) | forest | 0.41 | Spr ppt, win ppt |
NOAA/USFS 1960–2010 | Sierra (C&S) | forest | 0.53 | Sum T, spr ppt | |
NOAA/Cal Fire 1910–1959 | Sierra (C&S) | woodland/grass/chap | 0.34 | Prior spr ppt, spg T, sum ppt | |
NOAA/Cal Fire 1960–2010 | Sierra (C&S) | woodland/grass/chap | 0.27 | Prior spr ppt, priorwinppt, sumT | |
[8] | NOAA/USFS 1910–2013 | Southern Calif | chaparral/woodland/forest | 0.02 | - |
NOAA/Cal Fire 1910–2013 | Southern Calif | chaparral/grass/woodland/ | 0.09 |
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Keeley, J.E.; Syphard, A.D. Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California. Geosciences 2016, 6, 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences6030037
Keeley JE, Syphard AD. Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California. Geosciences. 2016; 6(3):37. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences6030037
Chicago/Turabian StyleKeeley, Jon E., and Alexandra D. Syphard. 2016. "Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California" Geosciences 6, no. 3: 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences6030037