Estimated Incidence of Symptomatic Lyme Borreliosis Cases in Lublin, Poland in 2021
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Seroprevalence Literature Search
2.2. Additional Literature Searches
2.3. Estimation of the Number and Incidence of Adult Symptomatic LB Cases in Lublin in 2021
2.3.1. Step 1: Estimate the Prevalence of LB Infection in Adults in Lublin in 2010
2.3.2. Step 2: Estimate the Number of Incident Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults in Lublin in 2010
2.3.3. Step 3: Extract the Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases in the General Population in Lublin in 2010
2.3.4. Step 4: Estimate the Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases among Adults in Lublin in 2010
2.3.5. Step 5: Estimate the Under-Ascertainment Multiplier for Adults in Lublin in 2010
2.3.6. Step 6: Estimate the Number and Population-Based Incidence of Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults in Lublin in 2021 (and 2019)
2.4. Duration of Antibody Detection Sensitivity Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Step 1: Estimate the Prevalence of LB Infection in Adults in Lublin in 2010
3.2. Step 2: Estimate the Number of Incident Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults in Lublin in 2010
3.3. Step 3: Extract the Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases in the General Population in Lublin
3.4. Step 4: Estimate the Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases among Adults in Lublin in 2010
3.5. Step 5: Estimate the Under-Ascertainment Multiplier for Adults in Lublin in 2010
3.6. Step 6: Estimate the Number and Incidence of Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults in Lublin in 2021 (and 2019)
3.7. Duration of Antibody Detection Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
Borrelia burgdorferi | B. burgdorferi |
LB | Lyme borreliosis |
ELISA | enzyme-linked immunoassay |
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Articles with Data from Poland 1 | B. afzelii | B. garinii | B. burgdorferi s.s. | B. valaisiana 2 | B. spielmenii 3 | B.miyamotoi 2 | Untypeable |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grygorczuk et al., 2013 [27] (n = 30 sera samples) | 83.3% | 10.0% | 6.7% | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Kubiak et al., 2012 [28] (n = 259 sera samples) | 29.2% | 15.8% | 30.4% | -- | 4.3% | -- | 20.0% |
Wojciechowska-Koszko et al., 2021 [29] (n = 53 sera samples) | 32.0% | 60.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8.0% |
Articles used to estimate the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic | |||||||
Hofhuis et al., 2013 [23] (n = 56 Ixodes ricinus ticks removed from tick-bitten persons | 64.3% | 19.6% | 12.5% | 7.1% | -- | -- | -- |
Markowicz et al., 2021 [24] (n = 194 Ixodes ricinus ticks removed from tick-bitten persons) | 68.0% | 16.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | -- | -- | -- |
Wilhelmsson et al., 2013 4, [25] Wilhelmsson et al., 2016 4 [26] (n = 178 Ixodes ricinus ticks removed from tick-bitten persons) | 48.3% | 23.6% | 2.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 13.0% |
Estimated Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases in Adults, 2010 | Estimated Number of Incident Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults, 2010 | Under-Ascertainment Multiplier(Based on 2010 Data) | Estimated Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases in Adults, 2019 | Estimated Number of Incident Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults, 2019 | Estimated Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases in Adults, 2021 | Estimated Number of Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults, 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
672 | 3975 | 5.9 | 1677 | 9894 | 1021 | 6204 |
Estimated Number of Incident Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults, 2010 | Under-Ascertainment Multiplier (Based on 2010 data) | Estimated Number of Surveillance-Reported LB Cases in Adults, 2021 | Estimated Number of Incident Symptomatic LB Cases in Adults, 2021 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 Years | 20 Years | 5 Years | 20 Years | 5 Years | 20 Years | |
7951 | 1988 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 1021 | 12,048 | 3063 |
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Colby, E.; Olsen, J.; Angulo, F.J.; Kelly, P.; Halsby, K.; Pilz, A.; Sot, U.; Chmielewski, T.; Pancer, K.; Moïsi, J.C.; et al. Estimated Incidence of Symptomatic Lyme Borreliosis Cases in Lublin, Poland in 2021. Microorganisms 2023, 11, 2481. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11102481
Colby E, Olsen J, Angulo FJ, Kelly P, Halsby K, Pilz A, Sot U, Chmielewski T, Pancer K, Moïsi JC, et al. Estimated Incidence of Symptomatic Lyme Borreliosis Cases in Lublin, Poland in 2021. Microorganisms. 2023; 11(10):2481. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11102481
Chicago/Turabian StyleColby, Emily, Julia Olsen, Frederick J. Angulo, Patrick Kelly, Kate Halsby, Andreas Pilz, Urszula Sot, Tomasz Chmielewski, Katarzyna Pancer, Jennifer C. Moïsi, and et al. 2023. "Estimated Incidence of Symptomatic Lyme Borreliosis Cases in Lublin, Poland in 2021" Microorganisms 11, no. 10: 2481. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11102481