Exploring the Influence of Drug Trafficking Gangs on Overdose Deaths in the Largest Narcotics Market in the Eastern United States
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Background
2.1. Drug Overdose Deaths and Philadelphia
2.2. Spatial Distribution of Overdose Deaths
3. Methods
3.1. Target Area
3.2. Spatial Unit
3.3. Data and Measures
3.3.1. Dependent Variable
3.3.2. Independent Variables
3.3.3. Additional Covariates
3.4. Allocation of Census Data to Thiessen Polygons
3.5. Spatial Concentration of ODs
3.6. Analytic Approach Predicting Counts of ODs in Thiessen Polygons
4. Results
5. Limitations
6. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Anselin, Luc. 1996. The Moran scatterplot as an ESDA tool to assess local instability in spatial. Spatial Analytical 4: 111. [Google Scholar]
- Armenian, Patil, Kathy T. Vo, Jill Barr-Walker, and Kara L. Lynch. 2018. Fentanyl, fentanyl analogs and novel synthetic opioids: A comprehensive review. Neuropharmacology 134: 121–32. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Barnum, Jeremy D., Walter L. Campbell, Sarah Trocchio, Joel M. Caplan, and Leslie W. Kennedy. 2017. Examining the environmental characteristics of drug dealing locations. Crime & Delinquency 63: 1731–56. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bates, Savannah, Vasiliy Leonenko, James Rineer, and Georgiy Bobashev. 2019. Using synthetic populations to understand geospatial patterns in opioid related overdose and predicted opioid misuse. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory 25: 36–47. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bernasco, Wim, and Scott Jacques. 2015. Where do dealers solicit customers and sell them drugs? A micro-level multiple method study. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 31: 376–408. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bhati, Avinash S. 2008. A generalized cross-entropy approach for modeling spatially correlated counts. Econometric Reviews 27: 574–95. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brantingham, Patricia L., and Paul J. Brantingham. 1981. Notes on the Geometry of Crime. In Environmental Criminology. Edited by Paul J. Brantingham and Patricia L. Brantingham. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, pp. 27–54. [Google Scholar]
- Brantingham, Patricia L., and Paul J. Brantingham. 1995. Criminality of place. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 3: 5–26. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Briz-Redón, Alvaro, Francisco Martinez-Ruiz, and Francisco Montes. 2020. Reestimating a minimum acceptable geocoding hit rate for conducting a spatial analysis. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 34: 1283–305. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bursik, Robert J., and Harold G. Grasmick. 1993. Neighborhoods and Crime: The Dimensions of Effective Community Control. New York: Macmillan. [Google Scholar]
- Carter, Jeremy G., George Mohler, and Bradley Ray. 2019. Spatial concentration of opioid overdose deaths in Indianapolis: An application of the law of crime concentration at place to a public health epidemic. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 35: 161–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- CDC (Centers for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics). 2020. Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Available online: http://wonder.cdc.gov (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Cerdá, Magdalena, Yusuf Ransome, Katherine M. Keyes, Karestan C. Koenen, Kenneth Tardiff, David Vlahov, and Sandro Galea. 2013. Revisiting the role of the urban environment in substance use: The case of analgesic overdose fatalities. American Journal of Public Health 103: 2252–60. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chainey, Spencer, and Jerry H. Ratcliffe. 2005. GIS and Crime Mapping. Hoboken: John Wiley and Sons. [Google Scholar]
- Cohen, Lawrence, and Marcus Felson. 1979. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review 44: 588–608. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Confair, Amy, Amy Carroll-Scott, Katherine Castro, Yuzhe Zhao, Steven Melly, Jennifer Kolker, Stephen Lankenau, and Alexis Roth. 2019. Community Health Profile: Kensington. Philadelphia: Drexel University Urban Health Collaborative. [Google Scholar]
- Connell, Christian M., Tamika D. Gilreath, Will M. Aklin, and Robert A. Brex. 2010. Social-ecological influences on patterns of substance use among non-metropolitan high school students. American Journal of Community Psychology 45: 36–48. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Curiel, Rafael P., and Steven Bishop. 2016. A measure of the concentration of rare events. Scientific Reports 6: 32369. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Curiel, Rafael P., Sofia C. Delmar, and Steven R. Bishop. 2018. Measuring the distribution of crime and its concentration. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 34: 775–803. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration & the University of Pittsburgh). 2018. The Opioid Threat in Pennsylvania. Joint Intelligence Report. DEA-PHL-DIR-036–18. Available online: https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2018-10/Opioid%20threat%20in%20Pennsylvania%20FINAL.pdf (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration). 2019. National Drug Threat Assessment. DEA-DCT-DIR-007-20. Available online: https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-01/2019-NDTA-final-01-14-2020_Low_Web-DIR-007-20_2019.pdf (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Eck, John E. 1995. A general model of the geography of illicit retail marketplaces. Crime and Place 4: 67–93. [Google Scholar]
- Exec. Order No. 3–18. 2018 October 3. Available online: https://www.phila.gov/ExecutiveOrders/Executive%20Orders/eo99318.pdf (accessed on 5 November 2020).
- Feldman, Nina. 2020. One Woman’s Mission to Make Sure Everyone Carries Narcan—Including Drug Dealers. WHYY. July 10. Available online: https://whyy.org/segments/one-womans-mission-to-make-sure-everyone-carries-narcan-including-drug-dealers/ (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Felson, Marcus. 1987. Routine activities and crime prevention in the developing metropolis. Criminology 25: 911–31. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Felson, Marcus. 1994. Crime and Everyday Life: Insight and Implications for Society. Thousand Oaks: Pine Forge Press. [Google Scholar]
- Friedman, Joseph, George Karandinos, Laurie K. Hart, Fernando M. Castrillo, Nicholas Graetz, and Philippe Bourgois. 2019. Structural vulnerability to narcotics-driven firearm violence: An ethnographic and epidemiological study of Philadelphia’s Puerto Rican inner-city. PLoS ONE 14: e0225376. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Groff, Elizabeth, and Eric S. McCord. 2012. The role of neighborhood parks as crime generators. Security Journal 25: 1–24. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Haberman, Cory P. 2017. Overlapping hot spots? Examination of the spatial heterogeneity of hot spots of different crime types. Criminology & Public Policy 16: 633–60. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Haigler, Nehemiah, and Melissa Francis. 2020. Personal communication.
- Han, Ying, Wei Yan, Yongbo Zheng, Muhammad Z. Khan, Kai Yuan, and Lin Lu. 2019. The rising crisis of illicit fentanyl use, overdose, and potential therapeutic strategies. Translational Psychiatry 9: 282. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Harocopos, Alex, and Mike Hough. 2012. Drug Dealing in Open-Air Markets; Problem-Oriented Guides for Police. Problem Specific Guides Series No. 31; Washington, DC: Department of Justice Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
- Headley Konkel, Rebecca, and Chrystina Y. Hoffman. 2020. Immediate and neighborhood contextual effects on intentional, accidental, and fatal drug overdoses in a non-urban jurisdiction. Deviant Behavior, 1–18. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hembree, C, Sandro Galea, Jennifer Ahern, Melissa Tracy, T. Markham Piper, J. Miller, David Vlahov, and Kenneth J. Tardiff. 2005. The urban built environment and overdose mortality in New York City neighborhoods. Health & Place 11: 147–56. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hsu, Ko-Hsin, and Joel Miller. 2017. Assessing the situational predictors of drug markets across street segments and intersections. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 54: 902–29. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Johnson, Lallen T. 2016. Drug markets, travel distance, and violence: Testing a typology. Crime & Delinquency 62: 1465–87. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Johnson, Lallen T., and Tayler Shreve. 2020. The ecology of overdose mortality in Philadelphia. Health & Place 66: 102430. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, Zehang R., Evaline Xie, Forrest W. Crawford, Joshua L. Warren, Kathryn McConnell, J. Tyler Copple, Tyler Johnson, and Gregg S. Gonsalves. 2019. Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: A spatiotemporal analysis. PLoS Medicine 16: 1–15. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Lieberman, Dan, Sean Ryon, and Ed Ou. 2020. With Overdose Deaths up during the Pandemic, Philadelphia Fights for a Legal Safe Injection site. NBC News. August 2. Available online: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/overdose-deaths-during-pandemic-philadelphia-fights-legal-safe-injection-site-n1235583 (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Martinez, Ramiro, Jr., Richard Rosenfeld, and Dennis Mares. 2008. Social disorganization, drug market activity, and neighborhood violent crime. Urban Affairs Review 43: 846–74. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Mazerolle, Lorraine, David Soole, and Sacha Rombouts. 2007. Drug law enforcement: A review of the evaluation literature. Police Quarterly 10: 115–53. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- McCord, Eric S., and Jerry H. Ratcliffe. 2007. A micro-spatial analysis of the demographic and criminogenic environment of drug markets in Philadelphia. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology 40: 43–63. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Mennis, Jeremy, Gerald J. Stahler, and Michael J. Mason. 2016. Risky substance use environments and addiction: A new frontier for environmental justice research. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 13: 607. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Metraux, Stephen, Meagan Cusack, Fritz Graham, David Metzger, and Dennis Culhane. 2019. An evaluation of the City of Philadelphia’s Kensington Encampment Resolution Pilot. Available online: https://www.phila.gov/media/20190312102914/Encampment-Resolution-Pilot-Report.pdf (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- NIDA (National Institute on Drug Abuse). 2020. Pennsylvania: Opioid-Involved Deaths and Related Harms. Available online: https://www.drugabuse.gov/drug-topics/opioids/opioid-summaries-by-state/pennsylvania-opioid-involved-deaths-related-harms (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Olsen, Yngvild. 2016. The CDC guideline on opioid prescribing: Rising to the challenge. JAMA 315: 1577–79. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ousey, Graham C., and Charis E. Kubrin. 2018. Immigration and crime: Assessing a contentious issue. Annual Review of Criminology 1: 63–84. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Pardo, Bryce, Jirka Taylor, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Beau Kilmer, Peter Reuter, and Bradley D. Stein. 2019. The Future of Fentanyl and Other Synthetic Opioids. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, Available online: https://ntakd.lrv.lt/uploads/ntakd/documents/files/Published%20version.pdf (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Percy, Jennifer. 2018. Trapped by the ‘Walmart of Heroin’. The New York Times Magazine. October 10. Available online: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/10/magazine/kensington-heroin-opioid-philadelphia.html (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Piza, Eric L., and Andrew M. Gilchrist. 2018. Measuring the effect heterogeneity of police enforcement actions across spatial contexts. Journal of Criminal Justice 54: 76–87. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Police Executive Research Forum. 2016. Building Successful Partnerships between Law Enforcement and Public Health Agencies to Address Opioid Use; COPS Office Emerging Issues Forums. Washington: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
- Ratcliffe, Jerry H. 2004. Geocoding crime and a first estimate of a minimum acceptable hit rate. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 18: 61–72. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ratcliffe, Jerry H., and Travis A. Taniguchi. 2008. Is crime higher around drug-gang street corners? Two spatial approaches to the relationship between gang set spaces and local crime levels. Crime Patterns and Analysis 1: 17–39. [Google Scholar]
- Ratcliffe, Jerry H., Travis Taniguchi, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Jennifer D. Wood. 2011. The Philadelphia foot patrol experiment: A randomized controlled trial of police patrol effectiveness in violent crime hotspots. Criminology 49: 795–831. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Roman, Caterina G., and Shannon E. Reid. 2012. Assessing the relationship between alcohol outlets and domestic violence: Routine activities and the neighborhood environment. Violence and Victims 27: 811–28. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Roman, Caterina G., Shannon E. Reid, Avinash S. Bhati, and Bogdan Tereshchenko. 2008. Alcohol Outlets as Attractors of Violence and Disorder: A Closer Look at the Neighborhood Environment. Washington, DC: Urban Institute. [Google Scholar]
- Roselli, Vito. 2018. The Violent Crime & Opioid Reduction Partnership (VCORP), Kensington; Philadelphia: FBI Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Office of the Attorney General, Philadelphia Police Department, Unpublished Report (June).
- Rudd, Rose A., Noah Aleshire, Jon E. Zibbell, and R. Matthew Gladden. 2016. Increases in drug and opioid overdose deaths–United States, 2000–2014. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 64: 1378–82. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Schwartz, David G., Janna Ataiants, Alexis Roth, Gabriela Marcu, Inbal Yahav, Benjamin Cocchiaro, Michael Khalemsky, and Stephen Lankenau. 2020. Layperson reversal of opioid overdose supported by smartphone alert: A prospective observational cohort study. EClinical Medicine 25: 100474. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shaw, Clifford R., and Henry D. McKay. 1942. Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. [Google Scholar]
- St. Jean, Peter K.B. 2007. Pockets of Crime: Broken Windows, Collective Efficacy, and the Criminal Point of View. Chicago: University of Chicago. [Google Scholar]
- Stevens, Alex, and Dave Bewley-Taylor. 2009. Drug Markets and Urban Violence: Can Tackling one Reduce the Other? Report 15. Oxford: The Beckley Foundation Drug Police Programme, pp. 1–15. [Google Scholar]
- Taniguchi, Travis A., George F. Rengert, and Eric S. McCord. 2009. Where size matters: Agglomeration economies of illegal drug markets in Philadelphia. Justice Quarterly 26: 670–94. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Taniguchi, Travis A., Jerry H. Ratcliffe, and Ralph B. Taylor. 2011. Gang set space, drug markets, and crime around drug corners in Camden. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 48: 327–63. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Tita, George E., Jacqueline Cohen, and John Engberg. 2005. An ecological study of the location of gang “set space”. Social Problems 52: 272–99. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Topalli, Volkan, Richard Wright, and Robert Fornango. 2002. Drug dealers, robbery and retaliation: Vulnerability, deterrence and the contagion of violence. British Journal of Criminology 42: 337–51. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Trangenstein, Pamela J., Frank C. Curriero, Daniel Webster, Jacky M. Jennings, Carl Latkin, Raimee Eck, and David H. Jernigan. 2018. Outlet type, access to alcohol, and violent crime. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research 42: 2234–45. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Valasik, Matthew. 2018. Gang violence predictability: Using risk terrain modeling to study gang homicides and gang assaults in East Los Angeles. Journal of Criminal Justice 58: 10–21. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Valasik, Matthew, and George Tita. 2018. Gangs and space. In The Oxford Handbook of Environmental Criminology. Edited by Gerben Bruinsma and Shane Johnson. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Weisburd, David, Lorraine Green, Frank Gajewski, and Charlie Bellucci. 1994. Defining the street-level drug market. In Drugs and Crime: Evaluating Public Policy Initiatives. Edited by D. L. MacKenzie and C. D. Uchida. Thousand Oaks: Sage, pp. 61–76. [Google Scholar]
- Weisburd, David, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Sue-Ming Yang. 2010. Understanding Developmental Crime Trajectories at Places: Social Disorganization and Opportunity Perspectives at Micro Units of Geography; Washington: National Institute of Justice.
- Wheeler, Andrew P. 2018. The effect of 311 calls for service on crime in DC at microplaces. Crime & Delinquency 64: 1882–903. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Whelan, Aubrey. 2020. Philly’s Overdose Deaths Rose again in 2019, Especially in Black and Latino Communities. Philadelphia Inquirer. May 13. Available online: https://www.inquirer.com/health/opioid-addiction/philadelphia-overdose-deaths-2019-rise-20200513.html (accessed on 29 September 2020).
- Whyte, William F. 1955. Street Corner Society: The Social Structure of an Italian Slum. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [Google Scholar]
- Wolfram, Joel. 2017. Philly Briefs Neighborhood on Cleanup of Conrail Heroin Encampment. WHYY. June 20. Available online: https://whyy.org/articles/philly-briefs-neighborhood-on-cleanup-of-conrail-heroin-encampment (accessed on 29 September 2020).
1 | We use the terms “drug gang” and “drug trafficking organization” interchangeably in this work, although law enforcement agencies in Philadelphia more often use the term “drug trafficking organization” to describe the groups operating in this drug market. |
2 | This figure is a weighted count using the 2014–2018 ACS 5 year average and areal interpolation procedures described further in this section. |
3 | From the 2014–2018 ACS 5 year average, 72% of the total weighted population in the target area are ethnically Hispanic or Latino, and of this group, 78% are Puerto Rican. |
4 | |
5 | According to the 2014–2018 American Community Survey, 54% of the population in Kensington were below the poverty line, compared to 25% in the city as a whole. |
6 | Ratcliffe (2004) found that an 85% hit rate was an acceptable minimum standard when conducting spatial crime analysis, although recent work has returned to this question of minimum acceptable hit rates. Briz-Redón et al. (2020) replicated (Ratcliffe 2004) procedure using five crime types aggregated to five different areal units in Valencia. They found that the minimum acceptable hit rate varied by the crime type and areal unit under consideration. For all crime types, when considering a spatial extent of 566 Thiessen polygons constructed around street intersections in Valencia, their analyses yielded a minimum acceptable hit rate ranging from 72% to 83.7% (Briz-Redón et al. 2020). |
7 | As detailed in the measurements section, concentrated disadvantage is an index comprising the extent of unemployment, poverty, households receiving public assistance, and female-headed households. |
8 | This American Community Survey item was not available at the Census block group level. |
9 | |
10 | |
11 | The land use variable measuring the percent commercial or recreational land use was dropped from all analyses due to its correlation with transit stops, impeding model convergence. We retained the transit stops variable as we expected it would vary across the spatial units in our study more than the land use variable, particularly due to the very small size of the units. |
12 | |
13 | There were 18 Thiessen polygons designated as priority corners, experiencing 19 ODs in 2018–2019. This resulted in a mean of 1.06 ODs per Thiessen polygon. There were 515 Thiessen polygons that were not designated as priority corners, experiencing 246 ODs in 2018-2019, with a mean of 0.48 ODs per Thiessen polygon. |
14 | i.e., the death location was noted as “residence”, and the decedents’ home address, event address, and death address were all the same. |
Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demographics of OD Victims | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % |
Total Phila. ODs | 666 | 100.0 | 832 | 100.0 | 1139 | 100.0 | 1021 | 100.0 | 1070 | 100.0 | 4728 | 100.0 |
Race | ||||||||||||
White | 445 | 66.8 | 565 | 67.9 | 817 | 71.7 | 682 | 66.8 | 677 | 63.3 | 3186 | 67.4 |
Non-white | 220 | 33.0 | 267 | 32.1 | 321 | 28.2 | 339 | 33.2 | 393 | 36.7 | 1540 | 32.6 |
Unknown | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0.0 |
Ethnicity | ||||||||||||
Hispanic | 77 | 11.6 | 103 | 12.4 | 156 | 13.7 | 137 | 13.4 | 172 | 16.1 | 645 | 13.6 |
Non-Hispanic | 585 | 87.8 | 721 | 86.7 | 970 | 85.2 | 875 | 85.7 | 858 | 80.2 | 4009 | 84.8 |
Unknown | 4 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.0 | 13 | 1.1 | 9 | 0.9 | 40 | 3.7 | 74 | 1.6 |
Target Area ODs * | 100 | 15.0 | 105 | 12.6 | 160 | 14.0 | 115 | 11.3 | 150 | 14.0 | 630 | 13.3 |
Race | ||||||||||||
White | 91 | 91.0 | 86 | 81.9 | 128 | 80.0 | 87 | 75.7 | 112 | 74.7 | 504 | 80.0 |
Non-white | 8 | 8.0 | 19 | 18.1 | 32 | 20.0 | 28 | 24.4 | 38 | 25.3 | 125 | 19.8 |
Unknown | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.2 |
Ethnicity | ||||||||||||
Hispanic | 34 | 34.0 | 35 | 33.3 | 53 | 33.1 | 41 | 35.7 | 65 | 43.3 | 228 | 36.2 |
Non-Hispanic | 64 | 64.0 | 66 | 62.9 | 103 | 64.4 | 72 | 62.6 | 75 | 50.0 | 380 | 60.3 |
Unknown | 2 | 2.0 | 4 | 3.8 | 4 | 2.5 | 2 | 1.7 | 10 | 6.7 | 22 | 3.5 |
N of ODs | N of TPs | % | Cumulative % |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 269 | 50.47 | 50.47 |
1 | 116 | 21.76 | 72.23 |
2 | 75 | 14.07 | 86.3 |
3 | 28 | 5.25 | 91.56 |
4 | 14 | 2.63 | 94.18 |
5 | 11 | 2.06 | 96.25 |
6–9 | 14 | 2.63 | 98.87 |
10+ | 6 | 1.13 | 100 |
Total | 533 | 100 | 100 |
Variable | Mean | SD | Min | Max | Skew | N |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accidental overdose deaths, 2018–2019 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0 | 6 | 2.47 | 533 |
Priority corner | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0 | 1 | 5.16 | 533 |
Proximity to all priority corners | 13.53 | 2.68 | 9.77 | 22.18 | 0.74 | 533 |
Concentrated disadvantage | 0.84 | 0.52 | −0.55 | 2.97 | 0.42 | 533 |
Residential stability | 0.17 | 0.67 | −1.87 | 2.02 | 0.24 | 533 |
Foreign language at home | 1 | 0.5 | −0.15 | 4.74 | 2.05 | 533 |
Transit stops | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0 | 1 | 2.16 | 533 |
No truck street | 0.26 | 0.44 | 0 | 1 | 1.07 | 533 |
Number of street segments | 3.83 | 0.61 | 2 | 6 | 0.21 | 533 |
Number of trees | 2.62 | 3.76 | 0 | 33 | 2.9 | 533 |
Presence of a park | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 2.68 | 533 |
Presence of a bridge | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0 | 1 | 2.99 | 533 |
Calls for abandoned vehicles | 2.65 | 3.47 | 0 | 27 | 2.71 | 533 |
Calls for graffiti | 4.92 | 9.28 | 0 | 87 | 4.62 | 533 |
Calls for broken street light | 0.87 | 1.35 | 0 | 9 | 2.48 | 533 |
Calls for vacant houses | 1.73 | 3.31 | 0 | 27 | 3.23 | 533 |
Calls for vacant lot | 1.5 | 2.93 | 0 | 24 | 3.71 | 533 |
Male | 49.05 | 6.78 | 27.93 | 82.52 | 0.04 | 533 |
Area (square ft) | 73,478.49 | 34,305.69 | 20,439.41 | 312,922.9 | 2.37 | 533 |
Year | RECC—Rates | RECC—Raw |
---|---|---|
2015 | 0.71 | 0.711 |
2016 | 0.615 | 0.618 |
2017 | 0.649 | 0.651 |
2018 | 0.451 | 0.453 |
2019 | 0.568 | 0.571 |
Predicting Overdose Deaths | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Coeff. | S.E. | Coeff. | S.E. | Coeff. | S.E. | Coeff. | S.E. |
Constant | 4.103 *** | 0.743 | 3.126 ** | 1.123 | −0.279 | 0.344 | −13.625 *** | 2.815 |
Drug Trafficking Organizations/Gangs | ||||||||
Priority corner | 0.406 * | 0.184 | 0.446 ** | 0.183 | 0.215 | 0.214 | 0.479 * | 0.233 |
Proximity to all priority corners | −0.042 *** | 0.011 | −0.020 | 0.013 | −0.031 | 0.019 | −0.092 *** | 0.03 |
Social Disorganization | ||||||||
Concentrated disadvantage | - | - | 0.254 *** | 0.082 | 0.246 *** | 0.085 | 0.397 *** | 0.132 |
Residential stability | - | - | 0.155 * | 0.064 | 0.158 * | 0.07 | 0.108 | 0.099 |
Foreign language at home | - | - | −0.448 *** | 0.094 | −0.393 *** | 0.103 | −0.463 *** | 0.143 |
Physical Environment | ||||||||
Transit stops | - | - | - | - | 0.396 *** | 0.114 | 0.624 *** | 0.156 |
No truck street | - | - | - | - | 0.009 | 0.118 | 0.038 | 0.145 |
Number of street segments | - | - | - | - | 0.257 *** | 0.078 | 0.190 * | 0.096 |
Number of trees | - | - | - | - | −0.029 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 0.02 |
Presence of a park | - | - | - | - | −0.187 | 0.203 | −0.590 ** | 0.239 |
Presence of a bridge | - | - | - | - | 0.189 | 0.142 | 0.457 ** | 0.182 |
Informal Social Control/Incivilities | ||||||||
Calls for abandoned vehicles | - | - | - | - | - | - | −0.047 * | 0.023 |
Calls for graffiti | - | - | - | - | - | - | −0.005 | 0.007 |
Calls for broken street light | - | - | - | - | - | - | −0.056 | 0.044 |
Calls for vacant houses | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.055 *** | 0.015 |
Calls for vacant lot | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.042 ** | 0.016 |
Control | ||||||||
Male | −0.013 * | 0.007 | −0.003 | 0.007 | −0.003 | 0.002 | 0.011 | 0.01 |
Pseudo R2 | −0.09 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.22 | ||||
Rho | 1.23 *** | 1.20 *** | 1.00 *** | −0.08 | ||||
Overdispersion parameter | 0.80 *** | 0.81 *** | 0.75 *** | 0.57 *** |
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. |
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Johnson, N.J.; Roman, C.G.; Mendlein, A.K.; Harding, C.; Francis, M.; Hendrick, L. Exploring the Influence of Drug Trafficking Gangs on Overdose Deaths in the Largest Narcotics Market in the Eastern United States. Soc. Sci. 2020, 9, 202. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110202
Johnson NJ, Roman CG, Mendlein AK, Harding C, Francis M, Hendrick L. Exploring the Influence of Drug Trafficking Gangs on Overdose Deaths in the Largest Narcotics Market in the Eastern United States. Social Sciences. 2020; 9(11):202. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110202
Chicago/Turabian StyleJohnson, Nicole J., Caterina G. Roman, Alyssa K. Mendlein, Courtney Harding, Melissa Francis, and Laura Hendrick. 2020. "Exploring the Influence of Drug Trafficking Gangs on Overdose Deaths in the Largest Narcotics Market in the Eastern United States" Social Sciences 9, no. 11: 202. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110202