Exploring Economic and Risk Perceptions Sparking Off-Shore Irregular Migration: West African Youth on the Move

Abstract

This study explores economic and risk perceptions that spark off-shore irregular migration among West Africans through the Mediterranean Sea to countries of destination (CODs). This study is timely because deaths on the Mediterranean Sea, which are unprecedented in migration history, result in a need to create awareness and save lives. Grounded in the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Cultural Theory of Risk Perception, this study explores the economic and risk perceptions of off-shore irregular migration. This study comprised a literature review, otherwise known as a “meta study”. The study’s findings reveal that there is a nexus between a person’s attitude and behaviours in terms of human action. Human nurturing determines a person’s attitudes and behaviours. The human mind does what it wants when one is desperate for economic survival. This forces humankind to engage in dangerous activities to survive. Therefore, irregular migrants’ choice of unsafe routes through the Mediterranean Sea to CODs depends on their expected outcomes. Irregular migrants consider migration as an “insurance”, and flee from hardship towards opportunities. The perceptions that lead to this range from salary disparities to economic freedom. I argue that spiritual beliefs, peer pressure, media platforms, and personal factors influence irregular route choices. This study recommends collaboration among the ECOWAS, African nations’ governments, and the IOM to engage returning migrants to narrate their in-depth experiences about the routes’ dangers to create awareness. Returning migrants’ narratives should be disseminated in mass media and on social media platforms to target youth. This would discourage West African youth from choosing unsafe routes to CODs. Collaboration should be extended to youth training in entrepreneurship to equip youth as job creators rather than job seekers to curb unemployment, which usually sparks off-shore irregular migration.

1. Introduction

This study explores the economic and risk perceptions that spark off-shore irregular migration among West Africans, especially the youth, through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to countries of destination (CODs). This study is relevant and timely because of death tolls on the Mediterranean Sea nowadays, which are unprecedented in migration history. This study aims to educate and to create awareness about the dangers associated with the choice of off-shore irregular routes to Western nations to save lives. This study adopted the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Cultural Theory of Risk Perception to explore economic and risk perceptions about illegal routes to advanced nations. What are the factors that trigger irregular migration among West African youth?

The Platform for International Cooperation on Undocumented Migrants (PICUM 2015) observes that the terms “illegal” and “irregular” have been used differently between states and non-state organisations depending on the context in which they are used. Morehouse and Blomfield (2011) argued that the term “illegal" is considered to have a criminal connotation. They consider it as problematic if it is used for migrants who are just seeking greener pastures without committing any crime. The European Union Parliamentary Assembly (2006) adopted Resolution 1509 about issues concerning the human rights of irregular migrants. The Resolution states that parliament prefers to employ the term “irregular migrants”, or “migrants without papers”, rather than “illegal migrants”, a term which carries an element of criminality. The resolution explained that “illegal” should be used to refer to the process, whereas “irregular” should be adopted to refer to a person. Hence, this study adopts the term “irregular migration” to avoid negative connotations associated with “illegality”. Moreover, the use of irregular describes the migrants and the choice of routes that are not in compliance with the law. Irregular is generally accepted as a neutral way to describe migrants without dehumanising them (PICUM 2015).

Incidentally, international organisations working on migration issues, such as the International Organisation of Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), also prefer to use the term irregular migrant instead of illegal migrant.

The IOM (2018) noted that there is an unprecedented increase in the number of African migrants, especially youth, arriving in European nations and the United States of America (USA). In comparison, the number of irregular African migrants who arrive in Europe by sea relative to Africa’s population is the lowest globally (Dennison 2022). Dennison’s (2022) research identified that the numbers of irregular migrants from Middle East nations such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Jordan put them among the top ten nations for irregular migration.

Okunade’s (2021) research reveals that migration through the Sahara Desert poses dangers to irregular migrants because of attacks and inhuman treatment by smugglers and pirates on the routes. The IOM’s (2018) study confirms that since 2015, migration from West Africa to the European continent has attracted the international community’s attention, due to the outbreak of migration crises, namely the migration of Syrian refugees, Afghan refugees, and Arab spring refugees. This indicates an era in which most irregular migrants from West Africa and Asia have used the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to arrive in European nations, especially Italy and Spain.

To put African youth migration in context, African migration, especially in Western Africa, is unprecedented to such a degree that it is referred to using slang terms from local languages, namely Twi and Yoruba in Ghana and Nigeria, respectively. In Ghana, the term “ogya syndrome” is used to mean “unbearable economic conditions”, which trigger international migration among both professionals and non-professionals. Ogya syndrome is used as a synonym for international migration (Vorvornator 2025). It is a slang term used to describe a Ghanaian who moves abroad. The situation is no different from Nigeria, where the term “japa syndrome” is used to mean “fleeing away”, or “escaping”, the shores of Nigeria (Ikuteyijo 2020). During the Youth in Business Forum (YiBF), Peter Dingba described Japa syndrome as “a word that describes the entrepreneurial spirit of Nigerians; in that same word, it means that Nigerians want to export their contents, gifts, skills, and products, including themselves”. This means, in the ECOWAS region and Africa in general, the youth are engaging in “self-exportation” or “self-exodus” to other countries (Okunade and Awosusi 2023). This scenario explains an aspect of the topic which reads “West African youth on the move”.

IOM’s (2018) research indicated that irregular migrants from West Africa, especially of Nigerian descent, are the most numerous to reach Italy and Spain through the Mediterranean Sea (Mercieca and Mercieca 2022). Mercieca and Mercieca (2022) report that undertaking migration by sea is dangerous, and it is like one is communicating with death. Mercieca and Mercieca (2022) elaborated that boats can capsize any time and many deaths occur in the sea. This may add more salt to injuries to the ‘poor’ families who spent so much on the trip of the irregular migrants with the aim to benefit from remittances in return for improving their living standards (R. Massey 2015).

Several publications have highlighted economic, climatic conditions (drought, bush fire, environmental degradation), unemployment, and violence as factors which spark off-shore irregular migration among West Africans (Akpan and Akpabio 2003; Jike 2004). Agricultural lands that are fertile for production are lost through illegal mining activities in Africa. This brings the case of Ghana and South Africa into this equation, with illegal activities termed ‘galamsey’ and ‘zamazama’, respectively. Rivers which serve as drinking water sources, employment (for fishing purposes), and income to citizens are polluted. They are no longer useful for any economic activities. This study contends that unbearable economic conditions among the West African youth are considered to be more dangerous than undertaking irregular migration to Europe (Kiriscioglu and Ustubici 2025), hence their desire to reach Europe, irrespective of the consequences, rather than remain in their country.

This paper is structured as follows: theoretical framework, literature review, research methodology, followed by research findings, conclusion, and recommendations. The next section presents the theoretical framework of this study.

2. Theoretical Framework

Theory of Reasoned Action and the Cultural Theory of Risk Perception

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA 2008) defined off-shore migrants as persons who leave their place of birth to reside in an international country for at least a year. This study is guided by the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Cultural Theory of Risk Perception propounded by Ajzen and Fishbein (1988) and Rippl (2002), respectively, to explore the economic and risk perceptions of West African youth regarding off-shore irregular migration through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to Europe for sanctuary. The Theory of Reasoned Action explains the nexus between a person’s attitude and behaviours within human action (Ajzen and Fishbein 1988). The theory proposed that a person’s behaviour and action to engage in specific behaviour are based on the expected outcome (Al-Suqri and Al-Kharusi 2015). The main components of the Reasoned Action theory are beliefs, attitudes, and intentions. Ajzen and Fishbein’s (1988) research described belief as the way in which an individual perceives that an action will lead to an outcome; attitude is concerned with whether or not the person’s outcome is favourable or unfavourable. Intention is the way in which the person intends to behave in response to belief and attitude (Al-Suqri and Al-Kharusi 2015). Thus, in relation to the off-shore irregular migration across the sea and land borders, the perceptions and beliefs that migration will yield intended outcomes become the force in decision making to undertake irregular migration from West Africa to Europe via unsafe routes. Likewise, Douglas and Wildavsky’s (1982) Cultural Theory of Risk Perception states that people react to situations depending on the way they perceive the world around them.

The Cultural Theory of Risk Perception explains that people choose what to fear and how much to fear it (Kiriscioglu and Ustubici 2025). The risk is perceived by irregular migrants as a “way of life” (Kiriscioglu and Ustubici 2025). Whether an individual is socially participating and the group one belongs to influence people to ‘weight’ risks differently. Wildavsky and Dake (2018, p. 42) argued that the Cultural Theory of Risk is able to “predict and explain what kind of people will perceive which potential hazards to be how dangerous”. Hence, despite the risk involved in off-shore irregular migration, individuals are motivated to take the decision to migrate across the Mediterranean sea, provided the persons anticipate better outcomes (available economic opportunities, loss minimisation, and income maximisations), whereas, if expected outcomes are unfavourable, the decision to migrate is dropped.

Putting West African youth off-shore irregular migration to Europe into perspective reveals that, because of high population growth, coupled with high unemployment rates, poverty and inequality are attested to by many of the publications explored (Mseleku 2021). As of 2024, the unemployment rate in Africa is 7.3%, and the world’s highest unemployment rates at the end of 2023 were in Africa and occupied Palestine. These are Eswatini: 37.6%; South Africa: 28%; Djibouti: 26.3%; West Bank and Gaza: 24.4%; and Botswana: 23.4% (World Bank 2023). The National Bureau of Statistics report (2024) reveals that the unemployment rate among Nigerian youth totalled 34.9% in 2016. Youth unemployment decreased from 8.4% in the first-quarter of 2024 from 10.1% in the fourth-quarter of 2023 (National Bureau of Statistics 2024). The unemployment rate among Ghana’s youth as of 2023 was 5.5% (Ghana Statistics Service 2024). The agricultural land is no longer fertile enough for people to engage in agricultural activities, because of illicit mining activities, which devastated farmlands, as well as unfavourable climatic conditions. Thus, given the above conditions in West Africa, a comprehensive understanding of the theories combined explains the behaviours that inform the decision-making processes for some West Africans, especially the youth, to opt for off-shore irregular migration to Europe, through unsafe routes for sanctuary. The next section presents the literature review.

3. Literature Review

Rationally, one may ask why irregular migrants risk their life through the dangerous Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to Europe for greener pastures. But the personal adherence to a particular ‘way of life’ determines the risk and danger in making such decisions (Ankomah 2022; Ajzen and Fishbein 1988). This means that irregular migrants may consider movement to Europe through the Sahara Desert to be less risky than staying in Africa’s unbearable economic conditions. This explains beliefs, which lead to attitude and then the behaviour (Ankomah 2022; Ajzen and Fishbein 1988).

3.1. Arguments and the Discourse for Economic and Risk Perceptions Which Lead to Off-Shore Irregular Migration

Baldwin-Edwards (2008) argues that irregular migration is the undocumented or irregular movement of a person or individual or group of people from one location to work in another place. Papademetriou’s (2005) research identifies four common types of irregular migration, namely, fraudulent entry (with false documentation), visa overstays (an individual entered the country legally but did not return as stipulated in visa conditions), violation of conditions and terms of the visa, and unauthorised entry. The main concern of this study is the unauthorised entry through land borders and the sea. Papademetriou (2005) explains that unauthorised migrants are citizens of different nations who enter another country via irregular routes, namely land borders or sea boundaries, usually in a desperate manner, to their CODs. These characteristics of off-shore irregular migration describe West African youth movement to Europe through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea. However, it must be noted that unauthorised or irregular migration is not a new phenomenon so far as migration is concerned but rather an old wine in a new bottle (Dangarembwa 2019). Historically, people irregularly and regularly migrated in search of greener pastures (Dangarembwa 2019). This brings to mind European nations, such as Great Britain, Spain, Portugal, and Germany, who were emigrant nations before they became immigrant states (Kalter 2024).

3.2. Migration as a Means of ‘Insurance’ Which Sparks Off-Shore Irregular Migration

Baada et al. (2019) argued that migration is a means for an individual to better their life. Because of that, it is enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10 of the United Nations as another way to reduce inequality within and between nations. Deotti and Estruch (2016) agreed that despite migration being a complex phenomenon, it is an ideal way to minimise risks and diversify household incomes. Migration serves as a means of livelihood diversification, especially in rural areas where poverty and inequality are rampant. Among nations such as the Philippines, India, China, and Egypt, migration is employed as a means to contribute to the nation’s economy (Mahmud 2023).

Migration serves as a livelihood strategy, motivating many people to flee poverty-stricken areas to escape hardship (Vorvornator 2024a). In this regard, African youth, especially in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region, engage in irregular migration to flee from economic hardship, environmental degradation, poverty, and unfavourable conditions because of structural failures (Deotti and Estruch 2016). Structural failures occur when the state organisations are malfunctioning and the state is unable to provide services effectively (Deotti and Estruch 2016). IOM’s report continues that between May 2017 and January 2018, over 6700 Nigerian migrants were returned from Libya through the efforts of international agencies and the Nigerian government. The above explains the off-shore migration referred to as japa and ogya syndromes among Nigerians and Ghanaians, respectively (Vorvornator 2025).

3.3. Salary Disparities Between Africa and Western Nations Sparks Off-Shore Irregular Migration

Kefale and Gebresenbet’s (2021) study indicated that job availability and differences in salary structure are two of the perceptions that trigger West African youth to migrate to the Western world. The perceived economic freedom is explained by the New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM) theory (Isokon et al. 2022). This theory notes that there are readily available job opportunities in the Western world with higher salaries. It is disparity in salary structure in comparison with own countries which entices West African youth to migrate to Western nations. Meanwhile, these jobs are hard to find in the advanced nation. Even if those jobs are there, they are for citizens, not for irregular migrants.

The network theory also offers the perception to irregular migrant West African youth about the availability of groups that assist on arrival in CODs. D. S. Massey (2019, p. 396) defined migration networks as “sets of interpersonal ties that link migrants, former migrants, and non-migrants in origin and destination areas through the bonds of kinship, friendship, and shared community origin”. This explains why irregular migrants from the same community are likely to be assisted abroad. Perhaps migrants from such a community might not have the necessary economic power or documents to assist.

The main difference between NELM and social network theories is that NELM theory begins with migration ideas and processes, whereas network theory continues and fans migration (R. Massey 2015). The network theory influences West African youth to perceive migration through their peers as if all is rosy in the Western world. Peers display affluence in the form of material items (cell phones and computers), and West African youth tend to believe that it is easy to acquire such resources without struggling (Isokon et al. 2022).

3.4. Peer Pressure and Community Influences Spark Off-Shore Irregular Migration to CODs

Peer pressure to migrate often starts from the influences of media; Western films portray some living standards as far better than others (Abdile and Pirkkalainen 2011). This perception entices West African youth to engage in off-shore irregular migration with the aim to achieve better living standards. West African youth are easily influenced to engage in risk perceptions when there are some community members who have arrived in the Western world through unsafe routes, and they remit to their families frequently (Abdile and Pirkkalainen 2011). This situation is described by R. Massey (2015) as ‘‘migration cumulative causation’’. Migration cumulative causation theory means an increase in migration among members in society. This contends that the likelihood that others will imitate this migration is high. This theory to can be linked to the social network theory (D. S. Massey 2019).

3.5. Personal and Social Factors’ Influence on Undertaking Irregular Migration

Personal factors, such as age, religion, and gender, and social factors, namely, media, and family influence, play roles in attitudes, beliefs, and decision making about West African youth’s off-shore irregular migration (D. S. Massey 2019). To explain the household’s influence on family members to migrate, Kefale and Gebresenbet (2021) assert that households usually take decisions to encourage energetic and brilliant family members to undertake international migration, which serves as income diversification. Erdal (2022) elaborated that while there may be some family members working to feed households locally (internally), families may prefer to send others to the international stage for remittances in case of emergency. Better still, the family may send others abroad with the perception of better wages and salaries (Kefale and Gebresenbet 2021).

In spite of the fact that some West African youth may be aware about the risky nature of irregular migration, youth, especially those from 18 years upwards, are more audacious about undertaking these dangerous journeys, in the belief that they have strength to withstand challenges. With regard to married men whose economic conditions are deplorable, they may undertake irregular migration in the belief that when they arrive safely, they will improve the living standards of their family. However, women are more likely to consider their children along with economic conditions before they migrate (Bates 2002; R. Massey 2015).

3.6. Economic Freedom Perceptions Serve as a Pull Factor for Off-Shore Irregular Migration

Economic freedom perceptions serve as one of the pull factors that attract West African youth to the Western world. These economic perceptions portray readily available jobs, higher salaries, lower taxes, and a lower cost of living in the developed nations (Etika et al. 2018). Etika et al.’s (2018) study argued that the economic freedom perceptions have increased among West Africans in such a way that, each day, irregular routes, such as the Sahara Desert, the English Channel, and the Mediterranean Sea, are used by irregular West African migrants to arrive in Spain and Italy. These questionable perceptions lead to the death of many irregular migrants on their way to CODs. Crush (2019) confirms that African youth believe that Western nations’ streets are coated with minerals like gold and diamonds. Some believe their currencies are on trees for individuals to ‘pluck’ (Crush 2019).

The irregular migration by West African youth is born out of desperation and frustration through the belief that it would be better to die in a foreign land than to die in COOs thorough hunger and famine (Eliseev et al. 2008). Off-shore irregular migrants view the probability of dying versus survival as 50/50%. To West African youth, it is the issue of ‘trying rather than failing to try’, because they perceive economic conditions on the continent to be more dangerous than irregular migration, hence the decision to undertake off-shore irregular migration (Ajzen and Fishbein 1988). This situation also explains how the human mind becomes desperate when it comes to economic survival (Eliseev et al. 2008). To be fair to irregular migrants who might flee through unsafe routes because of security reasons, it is, to some extent, justified.

3.7. Perceived Existence of Welfare Payments to All Residents in the Developed Nations

The welfare payment is a payment received by someone considered poor, ill or aged. Welfare payments can be referred to as social benefits (Harper et al. 2018). Examples of welfare payments are disability grants, child grants, and unemployment benefits. The welfare payments can be viewed as a substitute for unemployment (Harper et al. 2018). There is a perception that Western nations make welfare payments to people seeking employment, but this stops once the person is employed (Korsi 2022). However, irregular migrants are not aware of the fact that one has to acquire citizenship of CODs before they benefit from such welfare payments or transfers (Frank 2015). Even then, there are other conditions attached. Nevertheless, the welfare payment perception triggers off-shore irregular migration to CODs.

3.8. Risk Perceptions and West African Youth Decision Making to Embark on Irregular Migration Processes

Risk perception is relevant in decision making for an individual to either stay or undertake an unsafe journey from West Africa to Europe. Jaeger (2007) observed that an individual’s attitude towards risk perception depends on their tendency to engage in cross-border migration. Townsend and Oomen’s (2015) research argued that only understanding how migrants perceive risks and what attitudes and motives trigger them to engage in perilous journey is not enough without paying attention to their pre-migration, migration, post-migration decision-making processes. In that sense, Kuschminder et al. (2015) assert that irregular West African youth employ different routes to Europe, which are unsafe without having prior knowledge about the dangers of the trip. UNHCR’s (2019b) report disclosed that the journey through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to Europe is horrific and dangerous. The report highlighted that both males and females are tortured and beaten, and females are raped. In some instances, irregular migrants are kidnapped for ransom by different network groups such as smugglers operating along these unsafe routes. This implies that most irregular migrants die on their routes, and only a few arrive at their CODs (Jacobs and Hawley 2007).

In a similar development, UNHCR’s (2019a) Central Mediterranean Risk Mitigation Strategy’s report that the influx of illegal migration to European nations among African youths especially in ECOWAS sub-region is alarming. This leads to rapid proliferation of human warehouses, illegal detention, and connection houses operated by traffickers and smugglers. The report concluded that had irregular migrants been aware of the grave hazards in utilising the Sahara Desert route to Europe, they would not have undertaken irregular migration. Frouws et al.’s (2016) research concurs that this is despite there being an increase in communication networks through social media platforms such as WhatsApp, Facebook, and Skype, as well as improvements in social networks to help irregular migrants arrive in CODs safely; the communication networks equally assist smugglers and traffickers to employ strategies to lure unsuspecting irregular migrants into making these dreadful journeys.

In summary, Williams and Baláž (2014) pointed out that, irrespective of the use of social media platforms and social networks for effective communication with irregular migrants, movement is associated with uncertainty and risk from the pre-migration, along the routes (migration), the destination (not knowing anyone), and the life in the off-shore route. Thus, irregular migrants are exposed to grave hazards because of uncertainty and unknown outcomes in taking an unsafe journey.

3.9. Safety and Protection Perceptions About Irregular Migrants’ Disappearance to Unknown Destinations

The safety and protection perceptions of irregular migrants concerning disappearance are also some of the perceived perceptions that motivate irregular migrants to migrate abroad. Inyama (2021) observes that the rising incidence of disappearance of irregular migrant African youth, especially Nigerian migrants to unknown destinations, is worrisome. The report continued that the Netherlands Central Agency for Reception Asylum Seekers (COA) revealed that between 2014 and 2019, over 1231 irregular migrants who secured their asylum certificate disappeared to unknown destinations. In early January 2020, another 128 irregular migrants disappeared. Irregular migrants’ disappearance was linked to the activities of criminal trafficking groups such as the Vikings mafia and Black Axe, who are noted for threatening irregular migrants and forcing them into prostitution and drug peddling.

3.10. Spiritual Beliefs in a Higher Power for Protection During Off-Shore Irregular Migration

Minaye and Zeleke’s (2017) research asserts that to understand the decisions of off-shore irregular migrants, it is necessary to comprehend the actions and attitudes that inform their decision making. Therefore, if irregular migrants’ attitude and belief are that God or Allah has already determined their fate, they will not bother about the risk implications about unsafe and dangerous routes to Europe. Further, some people are naturally more open to risk-taking than others. This implies that West African youth who are more open to taking risks and have a belief in God’s protection will undertake these dangerous adventures where there are heatwaves on the routes through the Sahara desert to Libya and dangers in crossing the Mediterranean Sea (Minaye and Zeleke 2017).

3.11. Benefits of Host Nations’ Return and Non-Return of Irregular Migrants

Irregular migrants, when they have arrived in the host nations, sometimes face a range of challenges, depending on the receiving nation (Vorvornator 2024a). The host nations also benefit from cheap labour. While some irregular migrants integrate into the formal economy, others face discrimination and hostility in the informal economy or country. This affects their level of wealth or income accumulation (da Silva et al. 2021). Irregular migrants in a formal economy are likely to earn a regular income, regularise themselves and return home (Vorvornator 2024b), whereas those who find themselves in the informal economy due to migrant irregularity are exploited and discriminated against. In some instances, employers refuse to pay their wages or salary (da Silva et al. 2021), because the employers know that the irregular migrant is undocumented and cannot report to authorities for fear of deportation. This affects their income earning to return home (da Silva et al. 2021).

Based on the evidence presented above, I argue that despite the fact that it may sound irrational for individuals or groups of people to engage in off-shore irregular migration through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to Europe, irregular migrants’ beliefs shape their attitudes, which leads to behaviour in decision making whether to migrate through unsafe routes or not. The next section presents the research methodology of this study.

4. Research Methodology

This study adopted a literature review (LR) of migration studies to explore the economic and risk perceptions that spark off-shore irregular migration among West Africans, especially youth, through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to CODs. Jackson et al. (2020, p. 21) state that LR is “the process of accessing published secondary data”. The definition indicates two distinct characteristics. Firstly, LR adopts only published information, not primary data, comprising a broad range of books, articles, journals, and organisational and non-organisational reports (Maxwell 2021). The second characteristic identifies that the LR is employed “in-house” not in the field (Jackson et al. 2020, p. 11).

Several search engines, namely, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and EBSCOhost; migration websites and journals, namely, Journal for International Migration and Integration and International Organization for Migration (IOM); and search terms, such as ‘economic perceptions’, risk perceptions‘, ‘off-shore migration’ and ‘irregular migration’, were employed. This phase of the research started in October 2024 and ended in March 2025. This means that the LR search lasted for six months. This study acquired 1096 appropriate publications; 1089 of these emerged from electronic search, and 7 were found through back and forward search. Through eligibility assessment, a total of 66 (pp. 1096–1030) articles were selected, via the following eligibility criteria: (a) concentration on either or both factors associated with economic and risk perceptions; (b) focus on economic and risk perceptions regarding off-shore irregular migration; (c) published in 2012 or later; (d) published in English. The year 2012 was selected because it was a phenomenon and unprecedented in the history of migration, covering, as it did, Arab springs and Afghan and Syrian refugees’ migration to Europe.

Templier and Paré (2015) identify six steps in conducting LR, as follows: (a) identifying the objectives and research questions; (b) finding significant articles; (c) make inclusion for relevant articles; (d) examining the quality of articles; (e) extracting data; and (f) analysing data. All articles that did not meet the criteria were excluded. After the eligibility check, the author proceeded to the data extraction and analysis stages. Data extraction deals with coding important articles through thematic analysis. Thematic analysis is the process of identifying, analysing and reporting patterns within qualitative information (Creswell 2013). The author employed ‘framework analysis’, because it is a methodological procedure and guiding process that facilitates both extraction and analysis of significant data. It helps the researcher manage data, analyse large datasets, identify processes and patterns, and draw conclusion. The process was described by Ritchie and Spencer (2002) as “sifting, charting and sorting materials according to key themes and issues”. In specific terms, familiarisation is performed to have in-depth knowledge about articles’ relevance and the identification of a thematic framework, which reveals memos on the concepts and ideas that emerged from the migration studies’ literature review. Indexing is conducted by sifting the information related to the particular themes; the information was charted to sort out appropriate headings and sub-headings during the thematic framework stage (Creswell 2013). Mapping and interpretation, which entail gathering all criteria features of a dataset, and the synthesis of information were also carried out.

Several articles selected employed a range of qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Meta-analysis for the quantitative information was not performed because the research method did not share the same variables. Textual information was coded and mapped appropriately using the framework analysis approach. The theories and LR present broader pictures, baseline information, and an understanding of the past literature on the topic (Maxwell 2021). The LR helps to avoid duplication of existing works by scholars. However, the limitations could be that, since not all academic search engines were explored, there could be some existing studies that the author might not have consulted. Figure 1 below depicts the article selection process.

5. Research Findings

The findings identify that irregular migrants take the decision to migrate from West Africa to Europe through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea. Unsafe routes are employed depending on the beliefs of irregular migrants (Ajzen and Fishbein 1988). Irregular migrants who have a strong belief that migration through unsafe routes is less risky than the economic conditions in West Africa decided to migrate, whereas those who believe there are opportunities in West Africa better than engaging in unsafe routes to reach CODs will not embark on the journey (Ajzen and Fishbein 1988).

5.1. Migration as a Means of Insurance and Livelihood Strategies Sparks Irregular Migration

This study’s findings reveal that irregular migrants and households perceived migration as insurance, in the form of remittances received from family members abroad (Deotti and Estruch 2016). Migration is regarded as a means to minimise risk, reduce poverty, and diversify household income (Mahmud 2023). It also serves as a livelihood strategy to households and a means to flee from hardships such as unbearable economic conditions and environmental degradation in Africa (Vorvornator 2025; Vorvornator and Mdiniso 2022). Something not realised by irregular migrants is that their perceptions about economic freedom do not actually exist for migrants in European nations. Even for migrants who may have citizenship of CODs, there are other conditions for one to qualify. In reality, these perceived economic freedom conditions do not exist in Western countries.

5.2. Salary Disparities and Better Opportunities Motivate Irregular Migration

This study’s finding on economic perceptions about job opportunities is that there are jobs readily available for anyone who resides in an advanced nation provided the person is ready to work (Kefale and Gebresenbet 2021). This means that, with little effort, one can get jobs without hustling, unlike West Africa’s situation, where jobs are nowhere to be found. Further, salaries and wages in the advanced nations are purported to be higher (Kefale and Gebresenbet 2021). This means that migrant workers can remit to their families and uplift their living standards (R. Massey 2015). However, in reality, irregular migrants, even when they get a job, are exploited by employers since they (irregular migrants) do not have legal documents and cannot report to authorities for fear of deportation.

5.3. Peer Pressure and Community Influences Spark Off-Shore Irregular Migration

Peers’ perceptions of a good standard of living portrayed in media and Western films also influence irregular migration (Abdile and Pirkkalainen 2011). Viewing these films puts pressure on irregular migrants to migrate and enjoy the purported good living standards, hence off-shore irregular migration through unsafe routes to reach CODs (McElroy 2006). Moreover, community members who arrive in Europe and remit to families influence African youth to perceive that, since their colleagues employed unsafe routes to CODs, they can also do the same. Irregular migrants forget that we each have different destinies.

5.4. Economic Freedom Perceptions Serve as a Pull Factor Which Motivates Irregular Migration

Perceived ideas that pavements and advanced nations’ roads are coated with minerals such as gold and bauxite spark off-shore irregular migration (Crush 2019). Further, there are some irregular migrants who perceive that it is easier to make money in European nations than in Africa (Crush 2019). They have the notion that there is a lower cost of living and lower taxes in advanced nations (Etika et al. 2018). These economic freedom perceptions trigger off-shore irregular migration. Unfortunately, and unbeknown to them, in reality, these perceived economic freedoms do not exist for every resident in these advanced nations. Just as there are rich people in advanced nations, equally, there are also rich people in Africa. Likewise, there are poor households in both European and African nations (David 2024). Perhaps the difference is the number of people who might be rich and poor (David 2024).

5.5. Perceived Existence of Welfare Payments to All Residents in Developed Nations

The perceived idea that all citizens benefit from welfare payments in advanced nations also sparks off-shore irregular migration (Harper et al. 2018). Welfare payment perceptions are about payment and accommodation for citizens who are unemployed or seeking job opportunities. Unknown to irregular migrants is that such welfare payments only benefit citizens with low household income. This information is not available to irregular migrants, hence their engagement in off-shore irregular migration to Europe through unsafe routes.

Further, easy border crossing perceptions by irregular migrants motivate them to engage in off-shore irregular migration (Jaeger 2007). This implies that irregular migrants who perceive that it is safe and easy to cross land and sea borders engage in unsafe routes to reach CODs (Jaeger 2007). The risk perception that unsafe routes are easy to cross is born out of the upbringing (nurturing) of individuals. This is explained by the Cultural Theory of Risk Perception (Douglas and Wildavsky 1982), that individuals who perceive situations to be difficult will not undertake such ventures, whereas people who perceive situations to be easy will venture to achieve outcomes. This implies that irregular migrants often perceive unsafe routes to be safer before deciding to migrate through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to Europe (Fonju 2024).

5.6. Safety and Protection Perceptions Against the Reality of Irregular Migrants’ Disappearance

Safety and protection perception information communicated by traffickers and smugglers to irregular migrants entices them to undertake irregular migration. They are unaware that there are criminal element groups who carry out their illicit activities by kidnapping and forcing irregular migrants into prostitution and drug peddling. Irregular migrants’ belief in traffickers that the routes to Europe are safer motivates them to engage in off-shore irregular migration to CODs (Minaye and Zeleke 2017). An individual who does not believe in the ‘tricks’ of smugglers and traffickers will not engage in irregular migration.

5.7. Irregular Migrants’ Spiritual Beliefs in Higher Power for Protection During Migration

An individual’s beliefs also determine attitudes, which later leads to the behaviour (taking actions) among irregular migrants (Ajzen and Fishbein 1988). Irregular migrants who believe that there is a higher power (God or Allah) to protect them from the perilous dangers on unsafe routes engage in off-shore irregular migration (Minaye and Zeleke 2017). This implies that irregular migrants with the belief that God has destined them to succeed in any difficult challenge would not be concerned about the unsafe nature of the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea crossing to Europe (Minaye and Zeleke 2017). They would undertake off-shore irregular migration in the belief that even if they die, it is God’s will. An individual who does not believe in fate to arrive in CODs safely would not engage in such an unsafe journey to Europe (Minaye and Zeleke 2017).

Personal and social factors influence the undertaking of off-shore irregular migration (Pécoud 2018). The perception that an individual is masculine, young, energetic, and audacious enough to engage in dangerous activities and emerges victorious motivates off-shore irregular migration (Isokon et al. 2022). This explains the fact that irregular migrants who perceive themselves to be risk takers and able to easily overcome difficult challenges are motivated to engage in off-shore irregular migration to CODs (Isokon et al. 2022). Those who perceive themselves as non-risk takers desist from engaging in unsafe journeys to Europe.

5.8. Benefits of Host Nations’ Return and Non-Return of Irregular Migrants

Irregular migrants who arrive in host nations and integrate into the formal economy earn regular income, accumulate money and return home (da Silva et al. 2021). This implies that they regularise themselves with host nations’ documentation, whereas those who could not regularise themselves face challenges such as discrimination, exploitation and fear to report such abuses because of deportation threats (da Silva et al. 2021). This affects their income earning, and they find it difficult to return home.

Overall, this study argues that the manner in which one perceives life, upbringing (nurturing), and belief determines whether one should engage in unsafe routes to reach CODs through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea. People who are raised not to fear dangerous conditions might engage in off-shore irregular migration, while individuals who are careful and afraid of dangerous activities will not use such unsafe routes to reach CODs.

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

This study explored economic and risk perceptions, which spark off-shore irregular migration among West Africans, especially the youth, through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to CODs. This study reveals that there is a nexus between a person’s attitude and behaviours with regard to human actions. Nurturing, personal traits, and beliefs determine the attitudes of a person and their behaviours. The human mind does what it wants when one is desperate for economic survival. Humankind is capable of any dangerous activity to survive. Therefore, irregular migrants’ engagement in unsafe travel from the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to reach CODs depends on their expected outcomes in the CODs. This means that an irregular migrant’s beliefs lead to their attitude, which determines favourable outcomes for them to engage in off-shore irregular migration, whereas unfavourable outcomes lead to the abandonment of behaviour about irregular migration. Further, irregular migrants consider migration variously as insurance, livelihood strategies, income diversification, and opportunity to flee hardship. Perceptions include salary and wage disparity, available job opportunities that lead to economic freedom in Western countries, welfare payments for all citizens, and safety and protection route assurance from traffickers and smugglers. This study also identifies that spiritual beliefs (fate) in God or Allah; peer pressure; social factors such as family pressure; social media platforms such as Facebook, WhatsApp and Skype; and personal factors, namely religion, age and gender, influence irregular migrants to engage in off-shore irregular migration. I argue that irregular migration is undertaken when the hardship at home is considered to be more severe than the dangers of the Sahara routes to Europe. However, the irregular migrants’ assessment might be correct or wrong, since they never engage in such activities to compare the reality of the hardship at home and dangers of irregular routes. This study recommends that the African Union should work in collaboration with the governments of African nations and international organisations such as IOM and UNHCR to employ the services of returned migrants to narrate their experiences about unsafe routes through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea to reach CODs. This entails providing clear accessible information about risks and abuses, including exploitation on the irregular routes, shared personal stories, and the occurrence of violence and deaths on the routes. This would create awareness about the grave hazards on the unsafe routes to Europe. Returning migrants’ experiences should be disseminated through mass media and social media platforms, such as Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp and TikTok, since the youth like to explore these media platforms. This would discourage African youth, especially West Africans, from taking decisions to reach Europe through unsafe routes. Collaboration should be extended to skills development and training in entrepreneurship to Africans, especially the youth. This would equip African youth to be job creators rather than job seekers in order to curb the high unemployment that sparks off-shore irregular migration.