Paramilitary Conflict in Colombia: A Case Study of Economic Causes of Conflict Recidivism
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. International Literature
2.2. Social Dynamics and Institutional Context of the Colombian Civil Conflict
3. Colombian’s Geographical Paramilitary Conflict
4. Econometric Model: Do Civil Wars Have Economic Causes?
4.1. Methods and Data
4.2. Estimation Results
4.2.1. Probability of Conflict Occurrence and Impact of Income on Conflict Probability
4.2.2. Impact of Fixed Effects
4.2.3. Conflict Occurrence across Regions
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Department | Start Year | Last Year of Significant Reduction | Date | Recidivism | Last Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Antioquia | 1982 | 2003 | 26-December-03 | 2004–2012 | 07-November-12 |
Arauca | 1998 | 2004 | 31-December-04 | ||
Atlantico | 1994 | 2003 | 21-May-03 | ||
Bolivar | 1991 | 2003 | 16-March-03 | ||
Boyaca | 1982 | 2004 | 16-December-04 | ||
Caldas | 1990 | 2003 | 08-June-03 | 2005, 2010 | 09-January-10 |
Caqueta | 1980 | 2001 | 15-February-01 | 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011 | 26-November-11 |
Casanare | 1988 | 2000 | 17-October-00 | 2005, 2009 | 29-April-09 |
Cauca | 1991 | 2002 | 08-November-02 | 2011 | 20-April-11 |
Cesar | 1983 | 2002 | 08-December-02 | 2003–2005 | 04-December-05 |
Choco | 1990 | 2002 | 17-April-02 | 2007, 2008 | 03-May-08 |
Cmarca | 1990 | 2005 | 04-September-05 | ||
Bogota | 1989 | 2003 | 08-March-03 | 2009 | 01-December-09 |
Cordoba | 1988 | 2003 | 06-May-03 | 2008, 2010, 2011 | 25-September-11 |
Guaviare | 1986 | 2004 | 16-September-04 | ||
Huila | 1988 | 2006 | 15-May-06 | ||
La Guajira | 1992 | 2005 | 08-May-05 | ||
Magdalena | 1991 | 2003 | 16-October-03 | ||
Meta | 1988 | 2002 | 13-October-02 | 2003, 2004, 2006, 2012 | 14-February-12 |
Nariño | 1999 | 2003 | 26-April-03 | 2007–2011 | 25-June-11 |
Norte Sder | 1989 | 2004 | 25-December-04 | 2010, 2011 | 18-June-11 |
Putumayo | 1991 | 2005 | 27-July-05 | 2011 | 11-February-11 |
Risaralda | 1992 | 2003 | 26-February-03 | ||
Santander | 1982 | 2003 | 07-April-03 | 2005, 2009, 2010 | 15-Janaury-10 |
Sucre | 1992 | 2003 | 12-August-03 | ||
Tolima | 1989 | 2005 | 15-September-05 | ||
Valle Cauca | 1986 | 2005 | 09-July-05 | 2006, 2011, 2012 | 20-March-06 and 18-October-12 |
Vichada | 1998 | 1999 | 20-May-99 |
Gains | Costs | ||
---|---|---|---|
Explanatory Variables | Proxy | Explanatory Variables | Proxy |
Per capita taxable capacity of the economy | Per capita income and natural resource endowment | Loss in income due to the conflict | Per capita income |
Benefits of secession | Size of population | Cultural distinctness | Ethnolinguistic fractionalization |
Cost/Benefit Analysis of Conflict | Collier et al. (2008) | Research Hypothesis | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient | Impact | Coefficient | Expected Impact | |
Higher levels increase the conflict opportunity cost | Per capita Income | Negative | Per capita municipality income | Negative |
Higher levels increase expected benefits | Share of primary commodity exports to GDP | Positive | Per capita tax income | Positive |
Share of primary commodity exports to GDP | Negative | Relative relevance of natural resources royalties over total municipality income. | Positive | |
Higher levels increase coordination cost/higher levels increase pressure on valuable scare resources (land) | Index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization, ranges 1–100 | Positive | Rural population density | Negative |
Index of ethno-linguistic fractionalization2, ranges 1–100 | Negative | |||
Higher levels increase an incentive to rebellion | Population | Positive | All variables are percapta variables. | |
Higher levels increase the direct cost of having a private army | Relative relevance of municipal investment over total municipality investment. | Negative | ||
Older municipalities bring about institutional path dependence | Municipality age | Negative |
Year | Conflict | NYPR | PMI | PTI | NRR/TMI | MA | MI/TMI | RPD | N |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1998 | 0.837 (0.36) | 5.01 (6.10) | 0.35 (0.21) | 0.04 (0.06) | 0.02 (0.08) | 152 (110) | 0.36 (0.29) | 37.91 (56.6) | 1122 |
2001 | 0.89 (0.30) | 7.11 (6.9) | 0.47 (0.36) | 0.46 (0.06) | 0.047 (0.11) | 152 (110) | 0.28 (0.14) | 37.09 (58.3) | 1122 |
2002 | 0.91 (0.28) | 7.94 (7.11) | 0.58 (0.43) | 0.05 (0.06) | 0.049 (0.10) | 152 (110) | 0.30 (0.14) | 37.07 (58.37) | 1122 |
2005 | 0.92 (0.25) | 10.67 (7.44) | 0.57 (0.41) | 0.06 (0.07) | 0.035 (0.11) | 152 (110) | 0.34 (0.14) | 37.07 (59.07) | 1122 |
2009 | 0.93 (0.24) | 14.5 (7.6) | 0.74 (0.49) | 0.09 (0.11) | 0.048 (0.11) | 152 (110) | 0.36 (0.16) | 37.07 (60.09) | 1122 |
N | 5610 | 3765 | 5174 | 5166 | 5175 | 5610 | 5175 | 5570 | 5610 |
Pr(Y = Conflict) | Logit Panel | Probit Panel | OLS F.E. | OLS R.E. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Municipal income per capita | −0.0928829 *** | −0.0926089 *** | −0.1237967 *** | −0.0941488 *** |
Municipal tax income per capita | 0.3626739 *** | 0.3181913 *** | 0.3400631 *** | 0.406781 *** |
% Natural resources royalties in total municipal income | 0.1453259 *** | 0.14652 ** | 0.1723304 *** | 0.1432395 *** |
Municipality age | −0.0000455 | −0.0000368 | −0.0000442 | −0.0000552 |
% Municipal investment in total municipal income | −0.10033937 *** | −0.1127963 *** | −0.1375722 *** | −0.1469465 *** |
Rural population density | −0.0002004 *** | −0.000221 *** | −0.000291 | −0.0003115 *** |
Andean region | Reference group | Reference group | Reference group | Reference Group |
Caribbean region | 0.0721543 *** | 0.0694576 *** | 0.0539826 *** | 0.0633122 *** |
Pacific region | 0.0287513 ** | 0.0249112 ** | 0.0230852 ** | 0.0295414 *** |
Orinoquia region | 0.0940144 *** | 0.093217 *** | 0.107966 *** | 0.0962675 *** |
Amazonia region | 0.038487 | 0.0346611 | 0.0257659 | 0.0240842 |
N | 5166 | 5166 | 5166 | 5166 |
Number of groups | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Min obs. per group | 928 | 928 | 928 | |
Max obs. per group | 1096 | 1096 | 1096 | |
Average obs. per group | 1033 | 1033 | 1033 | |
Wald Chi2 | 201.69 | 237.98 | 277.56 | |
Prob > Chi2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
Log likelihood | −1203.90 | −1197.65 | ||
F | 31.29 | |||
Prob > F | 0.0000 | |||
R2 within | 0.0573 | 0.0549 | ||
R2 between | 0.4484 | 0.1426 | ||
R2 overall | 0.0487 | 0.0511 |
Y = Conflict Length in Years | Tobit Panel |
---|---|
Income per capita | −4.359 *** |
Tax income per capita | 14.137 *** |
% Royalties in total income | 8.186 *** |
Municipality age | −0.001 |
% Investment in total income | −5.342 *** |
Rural population density | −0.008 *** |
Andean region | Reference group |
Caribbean region | −2.090 *** |
Pacific region | −1.568 *** |
Orinoquia region | 1.715 ** |
Amazonia region | 1.884 ** |
N | 3.530 |
Number of groups | 5 |
Min obs. per group | 634 |
Max obs. per group | 750 |
Average obs. per group | 706 |
Wald Chi2 | 181.71 |
Prob > Chi2 | 0.0000 |
Log likelihood | −10,858 |
Left censored observations | 590 |
Uncensored observations | 1940 |
Right censored observations | 0 |
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Prieto Bustos, W.O.; Manrique-Hernandez, J. Paramilitary Conflict in Colombia: A Case Study of Economic Causes of Conflict Recidivism. Soc. Sci. 2024, 13, 112. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13020112
Prieto Bustos WO, Manrique-Hernandez J. Paramilitary Conflict in Colombia: A Case Study of Economic Causes of Conflict Recidivism. Social Sciences. 2024; 13(2):112. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13020112
Chicago/Turabian StylePrieto Bustos, William Orlando, and Johanna Manrique-Hernandez. 2024. "Paramilitary Conflict in Colombia: A Case Study of Economic Causes of Conflict Recidivism" Social Sciences 13, no. 2: 112. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13020112