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Open AccessArticle

Determination of the Optimal Order of Grey-Box Models for Short-Time Prediction of Buildings’ Thermal Behavior

1
Laboratory of civil engineering and geo-environment, Lille University, 59650 Villeneuve d’Ascq, France
2
School of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
3
Modeling Center, Lebanese University, Hadath 99000, Lebanon
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Buildings 2019, 9(9), 198; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings9090198
Received: 25 July 2019 / Revised: 26 August 2019 / Accepted: 27 August 2019 / Published: 29 August 2019
The use of grey-box models for short-time forecasting of buildings’ thermal behavior requires the determination of the models’ order since this order could influence the grey-box models’ performance. This paper presents an analysis of the optimal order of these models for different thermal conditions. The novelty of this work consists of considering the influence of the heating conditions on the determination of the performances of grey-box models. The analysis is based on experimental tests that were conducted in a room with different thermal conditions, related to the variation of the heating power. Experimental results were used for the determination of the optimal grey-box models’ order that minimizes the gap between the experimental results and the grey-box forecasting. Results show that the optimal grey-box models’ order depends on the buildings’ thermal conditions, but generally lies between two and three with an error less than 0.2 °C and a fit percent greater than 90%. View Full-Text
Keywords: grey-box model; optimal order; building thermal conditions; performance grey-box model; optimal order; building thermal conditions; performance
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Attoue, N.; Shahrour, I.; Mroueh, H.; Younes, R. Determination of the Optimal Order of Grey-Box Models for Short-Time Prediction of Buildings’ Thermal Behavior. Buildings 2019, 9, 198.

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