Prediction of the Shear Strengths of New–Old Interfaces of Concrete Based on Data-Driven Methods Through Machine Learning

Accurate prediction of shear strength at the interface between new and old concrete is vital for the structural performance of repaired and composite systems. However, the underlying shear transfer mechanism is highly nonlinear and influenced by multiple interdependent factors, which limit the applicability of conventional empirical models. To address this challenge, an interpretable machine-learning (ML) framework is proposed. The latest database of 247 push-off specimens was compiled from the recent literature, incorporating diverse interface types and design parameters. The hyperparameters of the adopted ML models were optimized via a grid search to ensure the predictive performance on the updated database. Among the evaluated algorithms, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) demonstrated the best predictive performance, with R² = 0.933, RMSE = 0.663, MAE = 0.486, and MAPE = 12.937% on the testing set, outperforming Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost). Compared with the best empirical model (AASHTO, R² = 0.939), XGBoost achieved significantly lower prediction errors (e.g., RMSE was reduced by 67.8%), enhanced robustness (COV = 0.176 vs. 0.384), and a more balanced mean ratio (1.054 vs. 1.514). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to interpret the model predictions, identifying the shear reinforcement ratio as the most influential factor, followed by interface type, interface width, and concrete strength. These results confirm the superior accuracy, generalizability, and explainability of XGBoost in modeling the shear behaviors of new–old concrete interfaces.