Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for the Construction of Underground Metro Stations
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Methodology
3.1. Research Objectives
3.2. Data Collection and Description
- Before the start of temporary support works, traffic and public utility bypassing works are carried out. At the same time, the site area is occupied, and the topographic network is installed to monitor the water table and the movements of the earth and adjacent structures during the excavation period. Then, the construction of the temporary retaining wall around the perimeter of the station’s ground plan is carried out, initially with the construction of concrete piles.
- Next, the station trench was excavated while taking the necessary excavation wall support measures and installing the required waterproofing materials.
- For stations S1 and S2, this was achieved by using only the C&C method whereby first, a temporary retaining wall made of concrete piles of at least 25 m length and 1.0 m diameter is constructed around the perimeter of the station, followed by the construction of a rectangular cross-section reinforced concrete that connects the pile heads. A safety parapet is placed on the pile head before excavation begins. Excavation progresses in stages, using project machinery such as excavators and loaders, at levels determined by the design. At each completed excavation level (1st, 2nd, etc.), to ensure the stability of the trench walls, prestressed anchors are installed and tensioned, and shotcrete of C20/25 grade, which is reinforced with a double structural grid (type T188), is applied to the vertical trench walls. This procedure is then repeated for each level of excavation down to the final level, where the temporary drain under the station foundation is constructed to discharge water from the excavation. This consists of a geotextile system, uniform large-sized gravel and polyester (nylon) membrane sheets applied to the floor and walls of the excavated trench.
- Stations S3, S4, and S6 were designed using a combination of the NATM and C&C methods because the space available at ground level for an open excavation was limited. First, smaller plan-area ventilation shafts are constructed using the C&C method. They ultimately constitute the ticketing and E/M facilities while providing the necessary access for the construction of the NATM tunnel section, which constitutes the station’s platform and track areas. Support of the excavated walls was provided by applying fiber-reinforced shotcrete and the using rock anchors (prestressed or passive), and placing of fore-polling beams in the shape of an umbrella.
- Station S5 foresaw the construction of a diaphragm wall surrounding the excavation perimeter and then the trench excavation using the Cover and Cut method. This was necessary due to its proximity to the sea, the resulting high groundwater level, and the need to return the ground level to traffic use as soon as possible. Therefore, following the completion of the construction of the diaphragm walls and the station roof slab, the immediate use of the ground-level area is allowed. Next, the rest of the excavation is carried out underground from top to bottom.
- After construction of both the temporary retaining wall and the temporary drainage system, with the formation of the corresponding working floor and the relevant surveying, the waterproofing of the station is installed.
- Once the installation of the waterproofing system is complete, the construction of the reinforced concrete shell of the station can begin from the bottom up, in the case of the C&C method, and from top to bottom for the Cover and Cut method. This includes forming and installing reinforcement, construction and or adjustment of the formwork, and pouring of the concrete to form all structural elements (slabs, beams, columns, perimeter walls, etc.) at each level of the station, from the foundation to the roof, following the approved design.
- Finally, surface restoration works include construction of curbs and gutters and surface drainage systems; connection of the station’s power, water, and telephone networks with the local networks; and paving of roads, lighting installations, and planting and irrigation networks. While the surface restoration works are underway, the construction of the underground station’s non-structural works are completed, including completion of construction, coating and painting of the nonbearing masonry, coating and painting of exposed concrete, installation of industrial flooring in the technical areas, laying of ceramic and granite tiles on the walls and floors, and hanging suspended ceilings and installation of windows.
Station | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Construction Method | C&C | C&C | C&C, NATM | C&C, NATM | Cover and Cut | C&C, NATM |
NATM Length (m) | - | - | 35 | 110 | - | 43 |
Geology | Lake Marl Deposits | Athens Schist | Athens Schist | Limestone | Marine Marl Deposits | Marine Marl Deposits |
Theoretical Excavation Volume (V, m3) | 87.291 | 88.136 | 82.045 | 64.280 | 100.890 | 106.068 |
Maximum Depth (d, m) | 28.90 | 26.40 | 28.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 28.00 |
Average Level Area (Al, m2) | 3.020 | 3.338 | 2.930 | 2.381 | 3.737 | 3.788 |
No. of Levels (n) | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Total Floor Area (AT, m2) | 9.061 | 6.677 | 8.791 | 9.524 | 11.211 | 11.364 |
3.3. Material Quantity Data
- Length of concrete piles by diameter category (m);
- Concrete volume for pile head construction (m3);
- Concrete volume of diaphragm walls (m3);
- Excavation volume per construction method (C&C and NATM) (m3);
- Length of prestressed anchors (m);
- Volume of shotcrete (m3);
- Surface area of waterproofing membrane (m2);
- Concrete volume for structural elements (slabs, beams, perimeter walls, columns) per excavation method (C&C and NATM) (m3);
- Steel reinforcement mass for the permanent concrete structure and the diaphragm walls (kg);
- Backfill volume (m3).
3.4. Cost Data
4. Results and Validation
4.1. Cost Prediction Models Using Linear Regression
Model | DV | IV(s) | R2 |
---|---|---|---|
1.1 | Total Cost | V | 0.560 |
1.2 | Total Cost | V,d | 0.660 |
1.3 | Total Cost | V,d, AT | 0.740 |
2.1 | Major Costs | V | 0.548 |
2.2 | Major Costs | V,d | 0.640 |
2.3 | Major Costs | V,d, AT | 0.775 |
3.1 | Total Cost | d, | 0.039 |
3.2 | Total Cost | d, Al | 0.668 |
3.3 | Total Cost | d, Al, n | 0.736 |
4.1 | Major Costs | d, | 0.034 |
4.2 | Major Costs | d, Al | 0.645 |
4.3 | Major Costs | d, Al, n | 0.766 |
5.1 | Total Cost | V | 0.560 |
5.2 | Total Cost | V, AT | 0.600 |
6.1 | Major Costs | V | 0.548 |
6.2 | Major Costs | V, AT | 0.629 |
Model 2.3 R2 = 0.775 | (Constant) | 41,965,771.577 | Model 4.3 R2 = 0.766 | (Constant) | 12,338,312.629 | |
Volume_m3 | 166.716 | Depth_m | −1,037,060.465 | |||
Depth_m | −1,778,392.950 | AvFloorArea_m2 | 7816.114 | |||
TotalFloorArea_m2 | 1004.755 | No.floors | 2,791,215.375 | |||
Model 1.3 R2 = 0.740 | (Constant) | 49,257,993.048 | Model 3.3 R2 = 0.736 | (Constant) | 16,790,221.651 | |
Volume_m3 | 214.998 | Depth_m | −1,189,814.042 | |||
Depth_m | −2,074,444.650 | AvFloorArea_m2 | 8833,509 | |||
TotalFloorArea_m2 | 919.027 | No.floors | 2,485,622,177 |
4.2. Material Quantity Models Based on Linear Regression, Ratios, and ANN
4.3. Validation of Linear Regression Models
4.4. Example Application of Models
- Step 1: Estimate the theoretical total excavation volume (V), which can be taken as the external dimensions of the underground station itself. For example, consider that V = 90.000 m3;
- Step 2: Use Equation (8) to calculate the estimated shotcrete volume or the 1% average ratio of SCV/V to calculate SCV and then the PAL using the average ratio given in Figure 9:SCV = 0.013 × V−258.14 = 0.013 × 90,000 − 258.14 = 912 m3 (rounded up to the nearest unit).PAL = 22 × SCV = 22 × 912 = 20,064 m
- Step 3: Calculate PV by using the best-fit ratio provided in Figure 7 or using the average ratio (3.6%).PV = 3.6% × V = 3.6% × 90.000 = 3240 m3
- Step 4: Calculate TCV using Equation (7) and then SR using Equation (9):TCV = 0.25 × V + 300.06 = 0.25 × 90,000 + 300.06 = 22,800 m3SR = 132.80 × TCV + 46,303.90 = 132.80 × 22,800 + 46,303.90 = 3,074,144 kg.
- Step 5: Using the sum of V, SCV, PV, and PAL quantities multiplied by applicable unit rates in each country, an estimate of approximately 35% of TCECs is obtained corresponding to the excavation and primary support costs (Table 4). Similarly, the TCV and SR quantities can then be multiplied by the prevailing unit rates of concrete and steel relevant in each country and subsequently summed to obtain a pre-estimate of another 35% of the TCEC costs corresponding to the construction costs of the reinforced concrete structure. After adding, another 15% for architectural works and a remaining 15% for waterproofing, backfill, supplementary geotechnical investigations, monitoring, and ground-level restoration, a fairly representative cost estimate is obtained for the civil engineering works for the construction of underground metro stations.
5. Conclusions
- The MC variable consisting of the cost categories “excavation and support”, “reinforced concrete” and “architectural works” correspond to 85% of the TCE costs, in close agreement with the Pareto theory.
- The proposed formulae can be used at the preliminary phase to achieve reasonably accurate cost estimates of the civil engineering works for underground metro stations when only the theoretical excavation volume (V), total depth (d), and the average floor level area (Al) and/or the number of floors (n) are known. Using these cost equations is considered a convenient tool for achieving early estimates of the cost of underground metro stations when only limited geometrical information on the size of the stations is known, allowing allocated budgets to be spent wisely in producing safe, reliable, and sustainable transportation structures.
- The material quantity formulae and ANN models produced in this study for the estimation of key material quantities such as total concrete volume, steel reinforcement mass, pile volume, shotcrete volume, and prestressed anchor lengths can provide international decision-makers at early planning stages with major material quantity estimations. These can then be multiplied with relevant national unit rates to obtain civil engineering cost estimates for the construction of underground metro stations. In this way, the limitations in the cost estimation models due to international price fluctuations are overcome.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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First Author | Year | Ref. | Project Type | Method | Country |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Akanbi T. | 2021 | [28] | Buildings | BIM | USA |
Alfaggi W. | 2022 | [29] | Buildings | Fuzzy AHP | Libya |
Ali Z.H. | 2022 | [30] | Buildings | GBM/ANN/SVM | Iraq |
Alshboul O. | 2022 | [31] | Buildings | GBM/ANN/RF | North America |
Alshboul O. | 2022 | [32] | Buildings | GBM | North America |
Al-Tawal D.R. | 2021 | [33] | Buildings | ANN | Jordan |
Challa R.K. | 2022 | [34] | Buildings | ANN | India |
Dang-Trinh N. | 2022 | [35] | Buildings | SVM/ANN/LR | Vietnam |
Dobrucali E. | 2021 | [36] | Buildings | ANN | |
Fazeli A. | 2021 | [37] | Buildings | BIM | Iran |
Goel S. | 2021 | [38] | Buildings | RF | India |
Ismail N.A.A. | 2021 | [39] | Buildings | BIM | Malaysia |
Ji S. | 2021 | [40] | Buildings | ANN | South Korea |
Kantianis D.D. | 2022 | [41] | Buildings | ANN/LR | Greece |
Le H.T.T. | 2021 | [42] | Buildings | BIM | |
Nehasilová M. | 2022 | [43] | Buildings | BIM | Czech Republic |
Park U. | 2022 | [44] | Buildings | RF/SVM/GBM | South Korea |
Rouhanizadeh B. | 2021 | [45] | Buildings | BIM | USA |
Santos M.C.F. | 2021 | [46] | Buildings | BIM | Brazil |
Sharma V. | 2022 | [47] | Buildings | LR/RF/GBM/ANN/GPR | China |
Tung S.H. | 2021 | [48] | Buildings | VR/BIM | |
Ujong J.A. | 2022 | [49] | Buildings | ANN | Nigeria |
Wahab A. | 2022 | [50] | Buildings | BIM | USA |
Wang B. | 2021 | [51] | Buildings | ANN | China |
Xu J. | 2021 | [52] | Buildings | MFO | China |
Yang S.-W. | 2022 | [53] | Buildings | BIM | South Korea |
Ye D. | 2021 | [54] | Buildings | ANN | China |
Zhang X. | 2022 | [55] | Buildings | SVM/PSO | |
Ibrahim A.H. | 2021 | [56] | Buildings/Power/Water | AHP | Egypt |
Alsharif S. | 2022 | [57] | Power | ANN | USA |
Choi Y. | 2022 | [58] | Power | MCS | MENA/Asia |
Geng S. | 2021 | [59] | Power | PSO/SVM | China |
Idris M. | 2021 | [60] | Power | NLR | Indonesia |
Ji H. | 2022 | [61] | Power | DT | China |
Kim S. | 2021 | [62] | Power | ANN | USA |
Sha J. | 2023 | [63] | Power | RA | China |
Feng F. | 2022 | [64] | Roads | SVM | China |
Gante D.V. | 2022 | [65] | Roads | ANN | China |
Lee J.G. | 2022 | [66] | Roads | ANN | International |
Mohamed B. | 2022 | [67] | Roads | ANN/SVM/RF | USA |
Sharma S. | 2021 | [68] | Roads | ANN | |
Warren J. | 2022 | [69] | Roads | ML | USA |
Kovacevic M. | 2021 | [70] | Bridges | ANN/RT Bagging/RF/GBM/SVM/GPR | Balkans |
Liu S. | 2022 | [71] | Tunnels | SVM | China |
Mahmoodzadeh A. | 2022 | [72] | Tunnels | RA | Iraq |
Mahmoodzadeh A. | 2021 | [73] | Tunnels | RA/SVM/DT | Iran |
Mahmoodzadeh A. | 2022 | [74] | Tunnels | GPR/PSO/GWO/MVO/MFO/SCA/SSO | Iran/Iraq |
Petroutsatou K. | 2021 | [75] | Tunnels | ANN | Greece |
Station | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pile Length (m) | 5625 | 5911 | 4898 | 1415 | 6892 | 5053 |
Pile Volume (m3) (including pile head) | 3203.4 | 3381.2 | 2863.0 | 906.4 | 4778.8 | 4542.3 |
Diaphragm Wall Volume (m3) | 14,100 | |||||
C&C Excavation Volume (m3) | 87,291 | 88,136 | 72,113 | 34,951 | 100,890 | 86,403 |
NATM Excavation Volume (m3) | 9932 | 29,329 | 19,665 | |||
Prestressed Anchor Length (m) | 30,053 | 23,202 | 19,282 | 7693 | * | 16,630 |
Shotcrete Volume (m3) | 970 | 1073 | 792 | 469 | * | 975 |
Total Waterproofing System Area (m2) | 27,300 | 31,140 | 29,760 | 52,223 | 20,000 | 50,100 |
C&C Structural Concrete Volume (m3) | 21,805 | 22,842 | 19,017 | 12,320 | 24,243 | 22,091 |
NATM Structural Concrete Volume (m3) | 0 | 0 | 1424 | 4276 | 0 | 4900 |
Steel Reinforcement Total Weight (kg) | 3,075,270 | 3,340,426 | 2,830,543 | 2,206,404 | 2,950,000 | 3,605,000 |
Backfilling Volume (m3) | 9805 | 16,624 | 13,689 | 2362 | 4600 | 8500 |
Brickwork Area (m2) | 3870 | 3858 | 4200 | 3000 | 6459 | 2405 |
Coating Area (m2) | 12,570 | 11,170 | 5662 | 5147 | 8756 | 6390 |
Painting Area (m2) | 8743 | 5445 | 4810 | 4215 | 8636 | 5990 |
Suspended Ceiling Area (m2) | 3508 | 3940 | 3161 | 2332 | 3976 | 4100 |
Code | Cost Category | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ALL | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.0 | Surface Traffic and Utility Network Restoration | 253,595 | 186,265 | 724,772 | 102,328 | 2,587,955 | 76,614 | 3,931,529 | 3.32% |
2.0 | Excavation and Primary Support | 5,859,098 | 6,220,111 | 6,508,665 | 5,750,840 | 13,235,952 | 6,824,826 | 44,399,492 | 37.51% |
2.1 | Piles and Diaphragm Walls | 1,068,973 | 1,130,758 | 940,775 | 266,053 | 7,752,363 | 1,203,041 | 12,361,963 | 10.44% |
2.2 | C&C Excavation and Support | 4,790,125 | 5,089,353 | 4,162,975 | 2,325,772 | 5,483,589 | 3,534,581 | 25,386,395 | 21.45% |
2.3 | NATM Excavation and Primary Support | 0 | 0 | 1,404,915 | 3,159,015 | 0 | 2,087,204 | 6,651,134 | 5.62% |
3.0 | Final Reinforced Concrete Structure | 6,794,228 | 7,337,699 | 6,260,530 | 5,259,665 | 7,815,624 | 8,361,241 | 41,828,987 | 35.34% |
3.1 | Reinforced Concrete | 6,794,228 | 7,337,699 | 5,819,597 | 3,442,610 | 7,815,624 | 6,690,235 | 37,899,993 | 32.02% |
3.2 | NATM-Permanent Lining | 0 | 0 | 440,933 | 1,817,055 | 0 | 1,671,006 | 3,928,994 | 3.32% |
4.0 | Waterproofing | 361,020 | 410,159 | 292,765 | 169,572 | 230,040 | 434,834 | 1,898,390 | 1.60% |
5.0 | Backfill | 100,381 | 171,213 | 141,027 | 24,851 | 46,008 | 86,967 | 570,447 | 0.48% |
6.0 | Supplementary Geotechnical Investigations and Monitoring | 515,995 | 406,396 | 640,870 | 600,812 | 385,318 | 637,757 | 3,187,148 | 2.69% |
7.0 | Ground-Level Restoration | 1,128,849 | 1,800,558 | 742,623 | 400,541 | 710,250 | 1,118,145 | 5,900,966 | 4.99% |
8.0 | Architectural Works | 2,597,586 | 2,282,212 | 2,540,272 | 2,309,691 | 3,743,908 | 3,166,007 | 16,639,676 | 14.06% |
Major Costs (MC) | 15,250,912,00 | 15,840,022,00 | 15,309,467,00 | 13,320,196,00 | 24,795,484,00 | 18,352,074,00 | 102,868,155,00 | 86.91% | |
Total Civil Engineering Costs | 17,610,752,00 | 18,814,612,00 | 17,851,524,00 | 14,618,300,00 | 28,755,056,00 | 20,706,392,00 | 118,356,636,00 | 100.00% |
Model | DV | IV | Model | Training Sum of Squares Error | Testing Sum of Squares Error |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | TCV | V | - | ||
2 | SR | V | RBF | 0.0573 | 1.848 |
3 | PV | V | RBF | 2.012 × 10−5 | 0.005 |
4 | SCV | V | RBF | 1.062 × 10−30 | 0.393 |
5 | PAL | SCV | RBF | 0.001 | 0.701 |
Station | Independent Variables | TCEC Actual (EURO) | Predicted (EURO) | Deviation Predicted vs. Actual (+/− %) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
V (m3) | d (m) | Al (m2) | n | AT (m2) | TCEC (Equation (2)) | TCEC (Equation (4)) | TCEC (Equation (5)) | TCEC (Equation (6)) | TCEC (Equation (1)) | TCEC (Equation (2)) | TCEC (Equation (3)) | TCEC (Equation (4)) | ||
S1 | 87,291 | 28.9 | 3020 | 3 | 9061 | 17,610,752 | 16,738,237 | 16,877,133 | 16,401,438 | 16,538,663 | −5% | −4% | −7% | −6% |
S2 | 88,136 | 26.4 | 3338 | 2 | 6677 | 18,814,612 | 19,316,487 | 19,567,673 | 19,578,258 | 19,836,632 | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
S3 | 82,045 | 28 | 2930 | 3 | 8791 | 17,851,524 | 17,273,125 | 17,147,609 | 16,892,411 | 16,814,479 | −3% | −4% | −5% | −6% |
S4 | 64,280 | 27 | 2381 | 4 | 9524 | 14,618,300 | 16,747,362 | 16,603,176 | 15,821,029 | 15,640,319 | 15% | 14% | 8% | 7% |
S5 | 100,890 | 27 | 3737 | 3 | 11,211 | 28,755,056 | 25,922,244 | 25,788,387 | 25,242,583 | 25,132,936 | −10% | −10% | −12% | −13% |
S6 | 106,068 | 28 | 3788 | 3 | 11,364 | 20,706,392 | 25,026,492 | 25,037,283 | 24,422,020 | 24,393,631 | 21% | 21% | 18% | 18% |
Station | V | TCV Actual | TCV Predicted | TVC Deviation | SCV Actual | SCV Predicted | SCV Deviation | SR Actual | SR Predicted | SR Deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | 87.291 | 21.805 | 22.123 | 1.46% | 970 | 876,643 | −9.62% | 3,075,270 | 3,399,213 | 10.53% |
S2 | 88.136 | 22.842 | 22.334 | −2.22% | 1073 | 887,628 | −17.28% | 3,340,426 | 3,427,267 | 2.60% |
S3 | 82.045 | 20.441 | 20.811 | 1.81% | 792 | 808,445 | 2.08% | 2,830,543 | 3,225,046 | 13.94% |
S4 | 64.280 | 16.596 | 16.370 | −1.36% | 469 | 5775 | 23.13% | 2,206,404 | 2,635,248 | 19.44% |
S5 | 100.890 | 24.243 | 25.523 | 5.28% | 2,950,000 | 3,850,700 | 30.53% | |||
S6 | 106.068 | 26.991 | 26.817 | −0.64% | 975 | 1,120,744 | 14.95% | 3,605,000 | 4,022,609 | 11.58% |
Technical Characteristic | Value |
---|---|
Theoretical Excavation Volume (m3) | 90,000 |
Depth (m) | 29 |
Total Required Floor Area (m2) | 3000 |
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Antoniou, F.; Aretoulis, G.; Giannoulakis, D.; Konstantinidis, D. Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for the Construction of Underground Metro Stations. Buildings 2023, 13, 382. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13020382
Antoniou F, Aretoulis G, Giannoulakis D, Konstantinidis D. Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for the Construction of Underground Metro Stations. Buildings. 2023; 13(2):382. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13020382
Chicago/Turabian StyleAntoniou, Fani, Georgios Aretoulis, Dimitrios Giannoulakis, and Dimitrios Konstantinidis. 2023. "Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for the Construction of Underground Metro Stations" Buildings 13, no. 2: 382. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13020382
APA StyleAntoniou, F., Aretoulis, G., Giannoulakis, D., & Konstantinidis, D. (2023). Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for the Construction of Underground Metro Stations. Buildings, 13(2), 382. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13020382