Next Article in Journal
Relativistic Effects of Rotation in γ-ray Pulsars—Invited Review
Previous Article in Journal
Gravitational Measurements in Higher Dimensions
Article

A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy

1
Grade 12, Santiago High School, Corona, CA 92881, USA
2
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
3
Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Galaxies 2021, 9(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/galaxies9010005
Received: 13 December 2020 / Revised: 11 January 2021 / Accepted: 12 January 2021 / Published: 18 January 2021
In the field of astrobiology, the precise location, prevalence, and age of potential extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) have not been explicitly explored. Here, we address these inquiries using an empirical galactic simulation model to analyze the spatial–temporal variations and the prevalence of potential ETI within the Galaxy. This model estimates the occurrence of ETI, providing guidance on where to look for intelligent life in the Search for ETI (SETI) with a set of criteria, including well-established astrophysical properties of the Milky Way. Further, typically overlooked factors such as the process of abiogenesis, different evolutionary timescales, and potential self-annihilation are incorporated to explore the growth propensity of ETI. We examine three major parameters: (1) the likelihood rate of abiogenesis (λA); (2) evolutionary timescales (Tevo); and (3) probability of self-annihilation of complex life (Pann). We found Pann to be the most influential parameter determining the quantity and age of galactic intelligent life. Our model simulation also identified a peak location for ETI at an annular region approximately 4 kpc from the galactic center around 8 billion years (Gyrs), with complex life decreasing temporally and spatially from the peak point, asserting a high likelihood of intelligent life in the galactic inner disk. The simulated age distributions also suggest that most of the intelligent life in our galaxy are young, thus making observation or detection difficult. View Full-Text
Keywords: Fermi Paradox; extraterrestrial intelligence; Milky Way Galaxy Fermi Paradox; extraterrestrial intelligence; Milky Way Galaxy
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Cai, X.; Jiang, J.H.; Fahy, K.A.; Yung, Y.L. A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy. Galaxies 2021, 9, 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/galaxies9010005

AMA Style

Cai X, Jiang JH, Fahy KA, Yung YL. A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy. Galaxies. 2021; 9(1):5. https://doi.org/10.3390/galaxies9010005

Chicago/Turabian Style

Cai, Xiang; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Fahy, Kristen A.; Yung, Yuk L. 2021. "A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy" Galaxies 9, no. 1: 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/galaxies9010005

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop