1. Introduction
The likelihood of natural formation of an initial genome in ‘genome first’ models of prebiotic evolution appears to be nearly impossible ‘Eigen’s paradox’ [
1]). This has motivated interest in alternative models in which the early phases of prebiotic systems are characterized by collections of polymers exhibiting lifelike behavior and storing information collectively without a central genome. Estimates of the likelihood of the random natural formation of such entities, of which prions and amyloids [
2,
3,
4,
5,
6] are often mentioned as examples, are probably higher, but how likely they are to form prebiotically is poorly understood and a major issue in evaluating such models.
In previous work [
7], we showed that a coarse-grained model of putative polymer prebiotic chemistry suggested quenching of a collection of such interacting monomers from a high temperature to ambient conditions as a prebiotic process. Such quenches could allow for a wide exploration of the space of polymer combinations in a high-temperature environment before the following quench fixed a nonequilibrium state which could have some metastable lifelike properties. We cited experimental work [
8], refs. [
9,
10,
11], which showed that a form of quenching (different in the two sets of experiments) did indeed enhance polypeptide formation in solutions of amino acids. We suggest that such quenching might occur in ocean trenches, similar to the hypotheses of others [
12,
13,
14] that prebiotic chemistry might have occurred in tectonic faults. Other possible sites of repeated quenching in early Earth include hot springs, beaches and lagoons in proximity to volcanic activity, hydrothermal sediments, shallow water hydrothermal vents and heated rock pores [
15,
16,
17,
18,
19].
However, our quenching model had some inadequacies: all reactions (ligation and scission) were assumed to be barrierless and the model was characterized by a parameter
p.
p was defined to be the probability of the presence of any possible reaction in the chemical network as originally introduced in similar models by Kauffman [
20,
21]. In the calculations reported by Kauffman and coworkers [
20,
21], an ensemble of artificial chemical networks was constructed in which any possible reaction occurred with probability
p. However, the relationship of
p with the chemical and physical processes occurring in real systems was somewhat unclear.
Here, we report simulation results from a modified model which addresses these inadequacies: we have eliminated
p and replaced it with two parameters characterizing the distribution of barrier heights for polymer scission reactions. The statistical distribution of barrier heights is introduced and sampled to parametrize the temperature dependence of the reaction rates. The distribution used is Gaussian, consistent with the limited information available experimentally concerning barrier heights for peptide bond hydrolysis as measured in nonbiological contexts [
22,
23]. Parameters from nonbiological systems are selected because rates in modern biological systems are determined by highly evolved processes involving enzymes which cannot be assumed to exist in prebiotic environments. Nevertheless, we stress that the data on peptide bond scission via hydrolysis which we use are very limited and the parameters could be different in an early Earth environment. A Gaussian distribution would be expected if the effective rates of scission were a product of the rates, each of the Arrhenius form, of a large number of steps, each randomly distributed. However, given the limited information available, the Gaussian distribution assumed here must be regarded as a hypothesis of the model. We have not fully explored the consequences of other assumptions concerning this distribution. Our qualitative results depend mainly on the fact that the distribution of the effective rate
v is zero at exactly
and has a sharp maximum near
as discussed below. The mean and standard deviation of the distribution are initially selected in a way that is consistent with what is known experimentally but are then varied to fit the data from quenching experiments reported in references [
8,
9,
10,
11].
We show that the model produces a distribution of reaction rates which is very similar to the one implied in models parametrized by
p, though the distribution is temperature (and pH) dependent. A temperature
emerges such that if the temperature of the hot environment before the quench is above
and the temperature of the cold environment is below
, then the quench leads to a disequilibrium ensemble of long polymers.
is estimated from data on the barriers of peptide bond hydrolysis to be around the boiling point of water, but it depends logarithmically on the time which the system spends in the hot part of the quench. A comparison with experiments in [
8,
9,
10,
11] shows that the data are in significantly better agreement with the new model than they were using the previous one [
7]. The resulting final states after quenching are farther from equilibrium than in those previous calculations [
7].
All the parameters are accessible in principle from experiment. The least well known of them in most cases are the time which the system spends in the high-temperature environment before the quench and the width of the Gaussian distribution of barrier heights. We use a fitting procedure to establish bounds on the possible values of these parameters which are most consistent with the model and the experiments. The theoretical results are quite sensitive to the width of the activation barrier distribution but are much less sensitive to its (better known) mean. Oscillations in the number of polymers of length
L as a function of
L observed after quenching in the experiments of references [
8] and, to a lesser extent, refs. [
9,
10,
11], are reproduced in the model simulations and an analysis is presented to provide insights into this phenomenon.
We also discuss the application of the model to quenches which occur in ocean trenches, for example, in smokers. The parameters are significantly different to those in the laboratory experiments; the ‘dwell times’ that the fluid spends in a high-temperature environment before quenching are significantly longer (up to years) in most of these cases and the temperatures are often much higher (up to 600K in some cases). We show that the model predicts formation of mainly long polymers in the case of polypeptides under suitable combinations of such conditions. We find some support for this prediction in one oceanographic report [
24] but it could be tested much more extensively via observational data. We discuss the possible implications for origin of life models which postulate origins in ocean rifts.
The next section briefly describes our previous model [
7] and how it was modified to take account of activation energies. In
Section 3, we provide some simulations and analytical comparisons of the new model with our previous one. The
Section 4 describes a detailed analysis of the experiments using these tools and
Section 5 provides a description of the application to quenches in ocean rifts.
In the conclusions, we discuss the implications for a scenario in which lifelike assemblages of proteins or other biopolymers might have formed on very rare occasions and been naturally selected from millions of quenches of aqueous solutions emerging from ocean trenches or ridges on early Earth and we suggest directions for future work.
2. Model and Simulation Methods
The model used for quench simulations including activation energies is the same as that used to obtain the results reported in [
7], except that a different distribution of reaction rates is used arising from the distribution of barrier heights for polymer scission as described qualitatively above and in more detail below. As in [
7,
25,
26] and elsewhere [
20,
21], artificial chemistries associated with abstracted polymers are generated, consisting of strings of digits representing monomers. The polymers undergo scission and ligation. However, unlike previous work, the present model does not have a parameter
p which controls the probability that, in a given realization, any possible reaction involving polymers up to a maximum length of
is included in the chemical network. Instead, we introduce a distribution of reaction rates, determined by a Gaussian distribution of activation energies as described below. This permits us to define an effective
, which is a function of the temperature, the time the system spends in contact with a reservoir at that temperature, and the pH.
We then use
as
p was used in [
7] to construct an ensemble of artificial chemical networks and study their dynamic behavior as covalent bonds form and break due to scission and ligation. Each reaction in the network is randomly assigned one enzyme from the species present in the network, as in [
7]. The algorithm used in the simulations reported here is nearly the same as that used in our previous work, but is different in some details and is summarized in
Appendix A. An important difference is that we do not eliminate networks that do not contain reaction paths from the food set to at least one polymer of length
(which we previously called ‘unviable’) when performing dynamical simulations in the present work. This is because we wish to simulate both natural conditions and experiments in which such elimination does not take place. We assume here that the system is ‘well mixed’ and no effects of spatial diffusion are considered.
As in [
7,
26], we assign to any ‘polymer’ (string) of length
l an energy
, where
is a real number which is the bonding energy between two monomers. These ‘bonding energies’ determine the thermodynamic driving force for bond formation and are negative in the application to peptide bonds. They are assumed to be the same for pairs of all types of monomers and are to be distinguished from the activation energies for bond breaking discussed below. Monomers are assigned ‘types’ of which there are
b, an integer. For proteins,
, for nucleic acids,
, and in our simulations,
. The total number of possible polymeric species (distinct series of ’types’) of length
L is then
. The total energy
E of any population
of polymers, in which
is the number of polymers of species
m, is
. Here,
is the same set of macrovariables used in [
7,
25,
27]. The total number of polymers
N is
. The parameter
is defined as
, where
T is the absolute temperature, which we assume to be positive so that, as we take
, the relevant parameter
.
To address the central problem of the prebiotic origin of life as enunciated by Eigen [
1] and many others, we focus in our models on the configurational entropy associated with a coarse-grained description of the state of a system of polymers in which the numbers of molecules of each length
L between
and
is
. This entropy is [
27,
28]
The
in the expression
arises from the counting statistics which, coincidentally, turn out to be the same as those for Bose fluids and are described, for example, in references [
27,
28]. When
, this configurational entropy is zero because there is only one configurational state. To model experimental systems, we include another factor in the term
, as described later in this section, and the entropy becomes non zero when
. However, in the present paper, we only consider simulations and experimental systems for which
.
In our simulations, the polymers of interest are not in equilibrium; however, in addition to the nonequilibrium distributions calculated from kinetics, we also calculate the equilibrium distributions
associated with local equilibrium as well as the values
associated with the system in equilibrium with a temperature bath at temperature
T. The two sets of equilibrium values
are recalculated continuously during the simulations. For
, these distributions are both of the form:
To determine the isolated (equivalently local) equilibrium state, we compute
and
from the known energy
E and polymer number
N by solving (on the fly during simulations) the equations
and
together with (
2). On the other hand, for an equilibrium with an external thermal bath, we fix
and compute
from the solution of Equations (
2) and (
4).
For comparison with laboratory experiments and oceanographic measurements on polypeptide formation in quenches, as described in
Section 4 and
Section 5, we take entropic account of the dilution of the polymers in the experimental samples, as we did in the work reported in [
29]. A reformulation is convenient because the experiments and observations report molecular concentrations, not absolute numbers of molecules. We introduce a microscopic length
, where
is a length related to the polymer persistence length and
is an index which would be
for a random walk. The entropy
becomes
The term
is taking account of the number of configurational ways in which a polymer of length
L can be formed if
b types of monomer are available (the factor
) and also of the approximate number of ways that such a polymer may be found in a sample of volume
V (the factor
). In the latter factor,
and the values of
and
were taken from reports of light scattering experiments on denatured proteins to be
and
[
30]. The model summarized by (
5) is physically equivalent to the one described in (
1) except for the factor
in
.
Maximizing the entropy, as described in [
29], we find
and
and
which are expressed in terms of the experimentally accessible quantities
, the volumetric polymer density, and
e, the volumetric energy density. To determine the equilibrium state resulting from equilibrium with a temperature bath, we fix
and determine
by solution, on the fly, using Equation (
8) together with (
6).
After a network is formed according to the procedure reviewed in
Appendix A, it is regarded as fixed. Barrier heights are selected and fixed for each reaction in it and a set of small molecules (we use dimers and monomers) is populated as an initial ‘food set’. Then, the formation (ligation) and scission of longer polymers follow dynamically in a separate dynamical simulation guided by the Master Equation [
7,
20,
21,
25,
26].
Here, is the number of polymers of species l, is proportional to the rate of the reaction , e denotes the enzyme, l and denote the polymer species combined during ligation or produced during cleavage, and m denotes the product of ligation or the reactant during cleavage.
The dynamical model in (
9) assumes that ligation and scission occur in single chemical steps. This is a simplification, but at least in our application to peptide bond scission, the Arrhenius form found experimentally in [
23] suggests that a rate-limiting step determines the temperature dependence of the total rate, consistent with the form we have chosen for the temperature dependence of the total rate described below.
In (
9), we have assumed that the rate constant
for ligation reactions is the reciprocal of the constant
for scission. This is not, in general, expected to be true, but we only found information on the rate of scission in the applications of interest. With (
9), we can determine
on the fly during dynamical simulations by requiring that the terms in (
9) will obey a detailed balance when the system is in equilibrium, as we have applied in previous models [
7,
26]. The detailed balance condition is
where, in the simulations reported here, the equilibrium distributions
in the last expression are always taken to be those associated with equilibrium with an external thermal bath with a fixed parameter
. The factors
and
then assure that the model is driven toward equilibrium and will reach it if not impeded by kinetic blocking or by the regular supplementation of molecules in the initial ’food set’ of monomers. Note that the number of equations represented by (
9) is
and each is of third order in the polynomials on the right. No analytic solution is possible, except in special cases like the one considered in
Appendix A, in which the number of monomers is assumed to be much larger than the number of longer polymers. (In the simulations reported here,
is characteristically of order
.) We use the well-known Gillespie algorithm [
31] to stochastically simulate the polymer population statistics implied by (
9).
Activation energies, which are the new feature in the model described here, enter in the parameters
or
, which are assigned from a probability distribution:
which follows from the assumptions that the (normalized) rates
v are of the form
and the activation energies
are distributed in a Gaussian distribution with mean
and variance
but restricted (see
Appendix C) to
. (Note that this is the probability distribution for the rates of reactions represented by the factors
v in (
9); it does not refer directly to the distribution of particle populations.) In the applications to polypeptides discussed in the following sections, we used data from [
23], reporting experiments on hydrolysis of glycine–glycine bonds, to fix
.
We show an example of the form of this distribution near
in
Figure 1, where it is compared with the distribution of factors
v used in our previous models. (The latter was simply a delta function at
with weight
plus a constant = p for
.) The following similarities and differences are noted: Similarly, there is a sharp spike in the probability distribution near
v = 0 followed by a long tail. The range of
v values is
as before, meaning that the rates are related to physical units in experiment by multiplying the rates by the prefactor in the Arrhenius expression for the activated rate. For later reference, we denote this prefactor by
. The differences include the fact that the sharp spike in our former models was exactly at
, whereas here the rate at exactly zero has zero weight and the position of the peak at low
v is temperature-dependent, moving to higher values and broadening at higher temperatures.
In the case of our previous distribution, the peak at
could be described as a delta function with weight
, which is the probability that a reaction has zero rate and can be left out of consideration in forming networks. However, we cannot use this strategy with the present model, in which all reactions have rates with a finite weight, even though some of the rates are very small. The reason that these low-rate reactions can be neglected is that the experiment or natural evolutionary process will in any case occupy a finite time, and rates which are extremely small on that time scale can be neglected. (This consideration can be relevant in real systems; for example, the time for hydrolysis of some peptide bonds in pure water without enzymes has been estimated experimentally to be as much as one hundred years [
23].)
However, in the simulation, if we do not take account of the actual time in the experiment or natural event, the simulation will simply cut off the slow reactions by default on a time scale set by the length of the run. Furthermore, by keeping all the reactions, the list of reactions would be very long, the reaction networks would be filled with many irrelevant reactions, and a lot of computation time would be spent rejecting these irrelevant reactions. In the following, we describe our procedure for taking these considerations into account in the calculations which follow. These procedures, and the introduction of the effective number which arises from them, have the following advantages: (1) they provide a means to explicitly control the time which the system spends in contact with hot and then with cold reservoirs during quenching in the theory and simulations; (2) they allow for a physical interpretation of the parameter p in Kauffman-like chemical network models of prebiotic evolution; and (3) they permit simulations which only spend computational time on reactions which actually occur and the codes are therefore more efficient than alternative simulation methods would be.
To quantify these considerations and produce a simulation which is relatively efficient and takes them into account, we introduce a time
which characterizes the time during which the experiment or natural process being modeled is in the hot stage before the quench. Values of
will be discussed in more detail below, but we note here that they are quite well defined for laboratory experiments and are usually macroscopic (minutes to hours). For natural evolutionary processes, they are not known because we do not know exactly what these evolutionary processes are. However, if, for example, the idea that the essential processes occur as hot water exits ocean trenches or tectonic vents is relevant, then the relevant time for the high-temperature period before the quench would be the time that the solution remains hot. In oceanographic circulation models, this time is usually taken to be up to a few hundred degrees Celsius, because the water is under a high enough pressure not to boil at these temperatures. Temperatures of that order of magnitude have been observed in the postulated environments. The times can be estimated from measured flow rates and are reported [
32] to be very heterogeneous, but are mainly in the range of 1 to
yr.
Having chosen the parameter
from such considerations, we define an effective
by excluding reactions which do not have time to occur in the available time
. This is achieved by requiring that all reactions for which
be neglected. The factor
converts
v to physical time units and the requirement is that the reactions do not have time to occur in the available time. The cutoff value of 1 is somewhat arbitrary, but the cutoff is expected to be of order 1. To obtain a value for
, we then integrate the probability distribution (
11) for
v from
to 1, as described in
Appendix C. The resulting weight is set equal to
. We illustrate some of these points in
Figure 1.
The dependence of
on the temperature of the bath in which the simulations take place is shown in
Figure 2, and its dependence on the width
of the assumed Gaussian distribution of barrier heights is shown in
Figure 3. Values of the parameters
and
roughly consistent with the experiments considered later were used. An interesting feature is the sharp change in behavior at a particular temperature, which we denote
, at which the sign of the derivative of
with respect to
changes. For temperatures below
,
decreases with decreasing
and for a small enough
,
becomes zero, meaning that the network has not had time for any reactions to take place. For temperatures above
, the values of
increase with decreasing
and will saturate at 1 at a high enough temperature and low enough
values. This behavior is quite easily understood, as seen in
Figure 1, and unlike the Kauffman model distribution with which it is compared there, the distribution has a maximum as indicated in the top panel of the figure. The value of
v at the maximum is easily computed from Equation (
11), giving
If this maximum value lies below the cutoff value
, then when
decreases, more of the probability weight will lie below the cutoff,
will grow, and
will shrink with decreasing
. On the other hand, if the maximum lies above
, then decreasing
causes
to grow because increasingly less of the weight lies below the cutoff, causing
to shrink. The first case corresponds to low temperatures and the second to high temperatures. The critical temperature at which the behavior changes is approximately found by setting
in the preceding equation to
and solving for the critical temperature. A few details are supplied in
Appendix C. When
is much less than 1, we find the physically relevant solution to be
This calculation illuminates the meaning of the temperature
in the model. In the calculation in
Appendix C of
as a function of the parameters
, and
, one finds that
as defined by (
13) again appears when
. Using this calculation as described in
Appendix C, we find the following expression for
in terms of the error functions, with arguments depending only on
, and
.
The temperature dependence is illustrated in
Figure 2. Equation (
14) also shows that the temperature dependences of
for different
but the same
collapse into a common curve when plotted as a function of
. This is illustrated by some numerical data in
Figure 4.
We suggest that the quite dramatic change in behavior with temperature at could have significant implications for evaluating the hypothesis that quenching might have played a significant role in the natural search for lifelike systems on early Earth, as discussed later in the paper.
Another key temperature, here termed
, describing the equilibrium distributions was defined and discussed in [
7]. At the Gibbs limit, in which the term
in the denominator of Equation (
2) can be ignored, systems in equilibrium at temperature
have a flat
equilibrium distribution; for
,
, and at equilibrium with
,
.
is expressed in terms of the model parameters as
In [
7], we noted that our earlier analysis [
29] of the proteomes of known prokaryotes had shown that proteins in these 4555 prokaryotes had length distributions very close (very small
) to an equilibrium distribution at
. Note that
, as defined here, characterizes the kinetic behavior of the model, whereas
characterizes its equilibrium properties.
The value that we use for
in (
15) in application in laboratory and oceanographic data analyses in the next sections was extracted from [
22], which reports data on the equilibrium bond strength of glycine–glycine bonds. To optimize the conditions, leading to quenches which produce large numbers of long polymers, we will require, in these applications, that the temperature of the fluid before quench be larger than
, so that the system will have
(for rapid ‘sampling’ rearrangements), and also larger than
, so that the low-temperature system after quench contains many long polymers. This is further discussed in
Section 4 and
Section 5, where we compare model predictions with laboratory experiments and oceanographic observations.
To take approximate account of the pH dependence, we use the results in reference [
33], where experimental results for the rate of scission of the glycine–glycine peptide bond by hydrolysis are reported for one temperature as a function of pH. The modification of the rate as a function of pH can be described as
, where the values of
from [
33] are shown in
Table 1. Thus, the lower limit of the integral on
, which determines
in
Appendix C, is modified to
. The physical effect of this is that fewer reactions are left out (larger
) because the rates at highly basic and highly acidic pHs are higher than those at a neutral pH.
With
thus fixed, we then proceed, much as in our previous models, to form networks and simulate them dynamically. We use
, as
p was used in previous models to decide during network formation whether to include a reaction as described in
Appendix A. Each reaction in the network is randomly assigned one enzyme from the species present in the network as in [
7]. The complete network formation algorithm, which is different in some details from those used in our previously reported work, is described in
Appendix A.
During the dynamical simulation of each network, as described after Equation (
9), the simulated systems are ‘fed’ by maintaining the population of dimers and monomers above a specified minimum. (Thus, the system is ‘open’ [
34].) The system is continually driven towards equilibrium with the external thermal bath, but many simulated systems do not achieve either local equilibrium or equilibrium with the external bath because of the kinetic blocking imposed by
and because of the ‘feeding’. As in our previous work, including that described in [
7,
25,
26], we assume that lifelike chemical systems will be metastable states far from equilibrium and select and count such states to obtain a quantitative indication of how likely our models are to result in lifelike states.
As in [
26,
29], we compute two Euclidean distances
and
in the
-dimensional space of sets
, which characterize how far the system of interest is from the two kinds of equilibria described above:
for the distance from the locally equilibrated state, and
for the distance from the thermally equilibrated state. Alternative measures of the degree of disequilibrium in the context of the study of polypeptide systems have been proposed [
35] and we have used alternative formulations in references [
25,
27]. This formulation has the advantage of discriminating between local equilibrium, which would be achieved by the system in isolation, and the global or thermal equilibrium with an external thermal environment, which would be eventually achieved if the system were in contact with an external, equilibrated ’bath’. The latter distinction has provided valuable insights into the nature of the nonequilibrium states found in our quench simulations. A similar Euclidean measure of disequilibrium in the context of prebiotic evolution was also suggested in reference [
36]. More details of the simulation methods are described in [
26].
As in [
7], the simulations for which the results are reported here implement sudden ‘quenches’ of the simulated networks from high to much lower temperatures of an external thermal bath by an abrupt change in the parameters
during the simulations. In the present work, we also need to take account of the change in
and this occurs in principle through a change in the parameter
.
In the report of the results which follows, we change the values of
and
from small values to a large ones by increasing
. The choice of small to large values will correspond, in the case that
and
do not change, to a quench from a high to a low temperature. We thus refer in the discussion to quenches from a high to a low temperature, but note that for the relevant parameters
and
, a similar change might be induced by a rapid change in pH [
33].
5. Application to Quenches in Ocean Rifts
We have previously reported evidence [
29] from values of
and
for proteomes of 4555 prokaryotes that the proteins in these organisms were formed at temperatures on the order of 370 K. Most of the prokaryotes in this sample are not thermophilic, so our analysis suggested that the proteins, and not necessarily the full prokaryotic organisms, were formed at that high temperature. There are at least two possibilities concerning the possible order of events here. The proteins could have formed in a quench from amino acids in the waters emitted from an ocean ridge or hot spring and then, after the quench and in rare cases, formed prebiotic entities with some of the properties of prions or amyloids in the contemporary biosphere. Alternatively, one might consider models in which the proteins were formed at high temperature and then, before the quench, became part of a thermophilic prokaryote. In either scenario, the formation of suitable polymers (proteins, RNA, or others) at high temperature is the first, probably rate-limiting, step in prebiotic evolution. In the model considered here, we consider only this step and hypothesize that the formation of precursor polymer assemblies which could evolve into life only occurs after the quench. We do not attempt to model later processes in detail here.
Motivated by the perspective described in the last paragraph, we therefore report a few results here using the model described in the last section with parameters suggested by oceanographic studies of smokers in or near ocean rifts. Although the stability of amino acids in the hot fluids in hydrothermal environments has been questioned, laboratory measurements [
38], as well as free energy calculations reported by Shock and coworkers [
37], suggest that amino acids could be stabilized in such fluids in the presence of hydrogen and they are in fact observed to be present.
The concentrations of amino acids in the fluids emitted from smokers have been measured [
24] in six black or white smokers in the Mariana Trough, and were reported to be up to more than
molar of total amino acids and
molar or less of dissolved free amino acids. This implies that most of the amino acids could be inferred to be in polypeptides. The large number of detected amino acids in large molecules (presumably polypeptides) could suggest a biological origin, but the authors of [
24] observed that higher-temperature smokers exhibit a higher concentration of long polymers. The temperatures in these high temperature smokers exceed the maximum temperature at which thermophilic bacteria can survive, so, in these high-temperature smokers, the polypeptides observed probably have an abiogenic origin.
Note that in the scenario explored in the model considered here, long polymers, of which some may turn out to be capable of supporting prebiotic evolution, only form transiently in the high-temperature stage of the hypothesized quenches. The role of the quench in this model is to stabilize the long polymers which were transiently present in the hot stage, and selective evolution, if it occurs, occurs in the low-temperature stage. The advantage, in our view, of this scenario is that it permits both a rapid sorting through many randomly selected types (for example, polypeptides) in the hot stage, while the quenches continuously ’sample’ them into a cooler environment which may permit them to evolve. Thus, in this model, we do not require that any lifelike entities survive in the hot stage before the quench. The model predicts that high temperatures in the hot stage can enhance long polymer formation (because entropic effects are dominant), and we therefore expect that hot stages in which the temperatures do not permit any known hydrophilic organisms to survive may nevertheless be favorable for the production of prebiotic material, leading to lifelike development after the quench.
Temperatures of what we interpret as the fluid temperature before the quench taking place in the smokers were reported in [
24] to be up to 530 K. pH values were acidic, in the range of 3.1 to 5.5. As in the laboratory experiments, the least well-known parameters are the width of the Gaussian distribution of barriers to hydrolysis and the dwell time of the fluids at high temperature before the quench. Glycine was the most common amino acid in the oceanographic samples, followed by serine, asperine, and lysine. This might suggest that the values of the width
which were used to fit the laboratory data and the values of
and
as reported in [
23] in glycine–glycine hydrolysis could be used, and we have applies them here. The dwell times of the fluids at high temperature before the quench are unknown for smokers, but models [
39] suggest much longer times (on the order of up to
years) than those experienced in the laboratory experiments. As noted earlier, larger values of
lower the value of
, so it is more likely that the temperature before quenching will exceed
if the other parameters are the same.
Quantitatively, this point is illustrated in
Figure 14, which plots the values of
and
for a range of dwell times expected in the laboratory experiments with fixed values of
and
. In
Figure 15, we show the corresponding relationship using parameters approximating the conditions in the smokers. One sees that the laboratory experiments are not likely to have taken the fluid from above to below
(that is, from
to
), whereas the quenches in the smokers are very likely to do so. However, for experiments or observations to yield long polymers after quenching in the smokers, we also need a temperature before quenching which is above
, so that many long polymers are present in the fluid before quenching. One sees in
Figure 15 that over much of the ranges of
b and
of interest for the smokers, the second requirement is more difficult to satisfy, but it may be satisfied in the highest-temperature smokers.
What was actually measured in the observations of [
24] was the total number of amino acids and the number of amino acid monomers. If the temperature before quenching is above
, then
is close to 1 and the quench to low temperatures will lead to a length distribution characteristic of equilibrium at the temperature before quenching. These conditions appear to be met in all the smokers for which data were reported in [
24]. If the factor
in Equation (
6) is ignored (or equivalently,
), then the the predicted ratio
can be evaluated analytically at the Gibbs limit, as shown in
Appendix D. If the hot temperature is below
, one can take the limit
, and the sum in the numerator converges. However, for temperatures above
, the sum diverges in that limit and an infinite value of the ratio would be predicted if no further physics constrained the values of
L to a finite maximum. These features are retained when the sum including the factor
is retained and the sum is evaluated numerically. However, for
b values between 5 and 10, we find that the temperatures before quenching are somewhat below
.
We compared the calculated ratio with the reported observations with various values of
and
b. In
Figure 16, we show the results for two values of
and
, for which
= 570.4 K. It is not completely clear what value of
b should be used for this comparison. The tables in [
24] list eleven amino acids, but some of them are present in much smaller quantities than others. A model assigning different probabilities for different monomer types is possible, but we have not studied it here.
We can draw these limited conclusions from this comparison: Most of the observational data are associated with temperatures below the most likely values of , and at these temperatures, the model predicts ratios larger than 1 but smaller than those observed. A few of the observational data points are associated with temperatures which may be greater than the range of expected values of . At these temperatures, the model with predicts an infinite ratio and by arbitrary adjustment of , one could obtain a theoretical result quite close to the observations. However, a physical theory is needed which takes into account physical factors which will limit to finite values.
The authors of [
24] point out that at the highest temperature values seen, thermophilic organisms which can survive are not known. Thus, a possible understanding of these data could attribute the relatively large values observed at lower temperatures to biogenic origins of the observed polypeptides, which our model does not take into account, whereas at the highest temperatures, the ratio must be fixed by abiogenic ligation, which the model does take into approximate account. (As noted above, high-temperature quench stages at which thermophilic organisms cannot survive are not excluded from relevance to prebiotic evolution within the model considered here. We regard the hot stage as producing long polymers which survive transiently at high temperatures but which are stabilized by the quench at lower temperatures where prebiotic evolutionary processes would have time to take place.) With regard to the data shown in
Figure 16, we can attain at a possible qualitative understanding of the fact that the model agrees better with the (limited) observational data at high temperatures where no biogenic polymers are expected. In summary, we find that the model appears to agree semiquantitatively with the very large difference (about two orders of magnitude) between the ratios observed in the laboratory experiments and those observed in the oceanographic data.