Abstract
The paper introduces U-S chance spaces, a new framework based on uncertainty theory and sub-linear expectation theory, to depict human uncertainty and sub-linear features, simultaneously. These spaces can be used to analyze the characteristics of uncertain random variables and study investments and other related issues in incomplete financial markets. Within the framework, sub-linear expectation theory describes the randomness in financial behaviors, while uncertainty theory describes the uncertainty associated with government macro-control or experts’ opinions. The main achievement of this paper is the derivation of the Kolmogorov law of large numbers for uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces. Examples are provided, and the theorems can be applied to uncertain random variables that are functions of random variables with symmetric or asymmetric distributions and uncertain variables with symmetric or asymmetric distributions. In some cases, when both random and uncertain variables are symmetric, the limit in the law exhibits the form that is characterized by symmetrical uncertain variables.
1. Introduction
In the 16th century, Cardano introduced a kind of limit theorem within the framework of classical probability theory, which subsequently gained recognition as the “Law of Large Numbers” (abbreviated as LLNs). Since then, LLN has since been investigated by numerous mathematicians, such as Bernoulli, Kolmogorov, and so on. Following a protracted period of study and development, LLN has developed into a nearly flawless theoretical framework and is now frequently applied in practical applications. The additivity of probabilities and the linear property of expectations play significant roles in the proof of such LLNs. Due to the fact that many events in both subjective and objective environments cannot be represented with additive probability or classical linear expectation, the additivity premise is not practical in numerous fields of application. Since Choquet proposed the concept of non-additive probability (capacity) in [1], people have become increasingly interested in non-additive probability theory. Non-additive probabilities are used in objective settings, particularly in quantum mechanics. According to [2], despite the frequentist interpretation commonly applied to quantum phenomena, the probabilities describing them are typically non-additive due to the well-known wave-particle duality. Non-additive probabilities are used in subjective settings because additive ones make it hard to analyze decision-makers’ confidence.
One very significant aspect of the real world is the fuzzy phenomenon. In order to model fuzzy phenomenon, [3] introduced the idea of a fuzzy set, and [4] established possibility theory, which is connected to the theory of fuzzy sets. Following that, further research was performed on the fuzzy measure, Sugeno integral, and Choquet integral (see, e.g., [5,6,7,8]). Furthermore, [6,7] divided the fuzzy measures into eight different categories that are closed under the operations of distortion functions: submeasure, supermeasure, submodular, supermodular, belief, plausibility, possibility, and necessity. Numerous surveys indicated that human uncertainty does not act in the same way as fuzziness. Before [9,10], the argument centered on the idea that the maximum of measurements of individual events is not always the same as the measure of the union of events, a perspective that was eventually summarized in [11].
To manoeuvre around this disadvantage, [9] created uncertainty theory, and [10] also developed it. An uncertain measure fulfills normality, duality, subadditivity, and product axioms. According to uncertainty theory, the degree of belief that an event will occur is indicated by the uncertain measure of the event. In order to represent the quantities under uncertain situations, this theory offers the concept of an uncertain variable. [12] studied the strong law of large numbers and the weak law of large numbers for Bernoulli uncertain sequences. In complex systems, human uncertainty and random factors might coexist at times. To investigate such complex systems, [13,14] developed the notion of an uncertain random variable to describe the quantities under uncertain and random situations, merged the concepts of probability and uncertain measures, and introduced the idea of chance measure. These concepts, which are founded on probability and updated uncertainty theory in [15], are mathematical explanations for uncertain random events. In this chance space, LLNs have produced some excellent study findings. The first demonstration of LLN under chance measure was made by [16]. It shows that the mean of uncertain random variables, which are functions, converges in distribution to an uncertain variable if random variables are independent and identically distributed (IID for short), and uncertain variables are IID and regular. LLNs under chance measures were subsequently developed by [17,18,19,20,21].
In the real world, apart from randomness, fuzziness, and human uncertainty, financial uncertainty is another form of indeterminacy. Inspired by risk measures, super-hedge pricing, and modeling uncertainty in finance, [22] first introduced the concepts of IID random variables, maximum distribution, and G-normal distribution in the framework of sub-linear expectations. Many financial uncertainties are difficult to adequately model using additive probability and traditional linear expectation. Nevertheless, a very adaptable framework for analyzing and explaining them is provided by sub-linear expectation theory. [22] has investigated weak convergences, including weak LLNs and central limit theorems under sub-linear expectation theory. Subsequently, [23,24] discovered three different types of strong LLNs for non-additive probabilities within the same context, resulting in the development of novel strategies for handling uncertain financial issues. A number of researchers have subsequently investigated strong LLNs in the framework of sub-linear expectations theory. For example, [25] made the strong LLNs in [23,24] hold in this case by providing the weaker requirement that random variables be independent, but not necessarily identically distributed. An expansion of the independence of random variables under sub-linear expectation known as negative dependence was first presented by [26]. Strong LLNs in [23,24] were also extended under the weakest moment conditions by [26]. Almost at the same time, the sub-linear expectations theory was also improved in [27,28]. The latest findings on LLNs based on this theory are presented in [29,30].
However, in the intricate and multifaceted real world, there exists a class of highly challenging systems. These systems are characterized not only by randomness with nonlinear features but also by the imprecision introduced by human subjective consciousness and linguistic expression. The stock market stands as a quintessential example of such complex systems, teeming with myriad random factors and human-induced uncertainties. Regrettably, previous theoretical frameworks have struggled to adequately model such systems. Inspired by the method presented in [31], we propose a novel theoretical framework of U-S chance space, aiming to provide a more precise portrayal of the complete picture of these complex systems. The core of the U-S chance space theoretical framework lies in the ingenious integration of sub-linear expectation theory and uncertainty theory, constructing a two-dimensional product space. Within this spatial framework, tools such as chance measures and chance distributions can comprehensively characterize the probabilistic properties and statistical regularities of uncertain random variables. These novel mathematical tools enable a more precise analysis of complex scenarios in financial environments, encompassing both random phenomena with sub-linear expectation characteristics and uncertainties stemming from human subjective judgments. For instance, when studying stock investments in incomplete financial markets, one can utilize sub-linear expectation theory to depict the incomplete nature of the market while leveraging uncertainty theory to address uncertainties arising from government macro-controls or expert opinions, which significantly impact stock returns and prices. Additionally, [32] gave four distinct kinds of expectations and four models of uncertain random programming under U-S chance spaces, and they were used for optimal investment in incomplete financial markets and system reliability design. [33] proposed risk aversion in incomplete markets affected by government regulation in the framework of the U-S chance theory, presented expectations of risk and the risk premium, and proved Pratt’s theorem under U-S chance spaces. Given the significant practical implications of the U-S chance space, the construction of the LLN under this space undoubtedly emerges as a highly valuable research direction. It is noteworthy that the LLNs for uncertain random variables presented in [20] are based on the assumption of linear probability and expectation. To transcend this linear assumption, under a series of reasonable conditional hypotheses, we cleverly employ the results of the LLNs for random variables from [24] and successfully derive the Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables being functions of IID random variables and IID uncertain variables under U-S chance spaces in Section 3. Here, the assumption of regularity for uncertain variables is necessary. A number of examples are given and explained in order to better illustrate the LLN for uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces. In certain specific scenarios, if random and uncertain variables are both symmetric, then the limit in the Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces also exhibits the symmetrical form. The innovations of this paper are primarily manifested in two aspects: firstly, theoretical innovation, as we propose the theoretical framework of the U-S chance space for the first time; secondly, methodological innovation, given the non-additivity of nonlinear expectations, traditional methods and techniques for studying linear expectations and probabilities are no longer applicable in the study of the LLNs within the U-S chance space. Therefore, we construct appropriate inequalities and innovatively improve the proof methods and techniques of the LLNs presented in [20].
This is the structure for the remainder of the paper. Some novel ideas regarding U-S chance spaces are presented in Section 2. In Section 3, we obtain the Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables that are functions of IID random variables and IID uncertain variables under U-S chance spaces. After that, five examples are given, which can be seen as two applications of the LLN in Section 4, and a short conclusion is presented in Section 5. Appendix A contains some fundamental definitions pertaining to uncertainty theory. Finally, some results of sub-linear expectations that are used in this paper are given in Appendix B.
2. U-S Chance System and Related Concepts
To describe complex systems where human uncertainty and randomness coexist, [13,14] proposed the chance theory. This randomness can be portrayed through classical probability theory. However, with the development of society, many random phenomena cannot be analyzed through additive probabilities and need to be modeled by non-additive probabilities. For complex systems where human uncertainty and randomness with sub-linear characteristics coexist, the chance theory cannot analyze the problems in such systems well. Therefore, a new theoretical framework is needed to be constructed for dealing with the problems in the above systems. We combine uncertainty theory and sub-linear expectation theory to propose U-S chance theory. Chance measures under U-S chance spaces are the most basic concepts, and they can be used to represent the possible degree that an uncertain random event may occur under U-S chance spaces. An uncertain random variable is a measurable function from the U-S chance space to the set of real numbers. It is used to indicate quantities with both uncertainty and randomness with sub-linear characteristics. Chance distributions can be used to characterize uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces, and they are carriers of incomplete information of uncertain random variables. In some instances, it is more important to understand chance distributions than uncertain random variables themselves. In this section, we develop a novel class of framework for chance spaces called U-S chance spaces. Under the chance spaces, definitions for chance distributions, chance measures, and uncertain random variables are suggested.
Definition 1.
Suppose that is an uncertainty space, is a measurable space, and is a sub-linear expectation space. Let , v be two non-additive probabilities generated by sub-linear expectation . A pair of chance spaces generated by uncertainty space and sub-linear expectation space (abbreviated U-S chance spaces) are the forms as follows:
and
where represents the universal set, represents the product σ-algebra, and represent two product measures. is called an uncertain random event in U-S chance spaces if . The chance measures and of can be defined by
and
respectively.
, and are in the framework of sub-linear expectation theory presented by Peng [27,28] and Chen [23,24]. In Appendix B, we provide some fundamental definitions and properties regarding sub-linear expectation theory, including the definitions of sub-linear expectation , non-additive probabilities v and , IID random variables, maximal distribution and G-normal distribution and some of their properties.
Remark 1.
It is evident that represents the universal set containing all ordered pairs , where and , i.e.,
The product σ-algebra represents the smallest σ-algebra that contains measurable rectangles , where and . Under U-S chance spaces, an element is considered an event if it is in .
Next, using a similar approach by Liu [15] (pp. 409–410), the product measures and are discussed. Assume that becomes an event in . For every , we obtain that the set
becomes an event in . Hence, for any , uncertain measure is existing. However, unluckily, there is no guarantee that is a measurable function about ω. As a result, for any real number x, the set
becomes a subset of Ω but possibly fails to be an event in . Therefore, the existences of upper probability measure and lower probability measure are not ensured. For this instance, let
and
based on the principle of maximum uncertainty. For each real number x, this guarantees the existences of upper probability measure and lower probability measure . It is now possible to define and of as the expected values of with regard to , i.e., and . Thus, chance measures and can be well defined.
Proposition 1.
Suppose that and are U-S chance spaces. Four properties of the chance measures and can be listed as following:
- (i)
- ; for and . In particular, , ; ,
- (ii)
- ,
- (iii)
- For events , if then and
- (iv)
- ,
Proof.
(i) For every , it is clear that , and for every , it is easy to find that . Then , for all . For ∀r, suppose , then we have
Suppose , then we have
Thus, it is concluded that
Moreover, it is easy to obtain that , Using a similar method as above, we have , ,
(ii) Taking , since , , it follows from the duality of that
So, we obtain
(iii) Suppose that , for every , we can conclude that It is obvious from the monotonicity of that
From the fact that
and the monotonicity of v, it follows that
Thus, .
Similar to the method above, it is easy to obtain that from the monotonicity of .
Remark 2.
In generally, and are both not subadditive because the subadditivity of upper probability could not determine the subadditivity of and .
Definition 2.
If a function is measurable, then it is named an uncertain random variable in U-S chance spaces, i.e., for each
A pair of chance distributions and for ξ with the functions
are named the lower distribution and the upper distribution, respectively.
Both here and in the next sections, uncertain random variables are variables under U-S chance spaces and .
3. LLN for Uncertain Random Variables Under U-S Chance Spaces
In this section, the Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces is given. We first require a few fundamental notations and assumptions before we provide the LLN.
Let be a sequence of random variables, and be a sequence of uncertain variables. The class of functions f: is denoted by , which satisfies that is strictly increasing concerning y for every , in the meantime, concerning y for every , and is continuous concerning x for every . And the class of functions f: is denoted by , which satisfies that is strictly decreasing concerning y for every , in addition, concerning y for every , and is continuous concerning x for every . Furthermore, we write the class of continuous function strictly increasing as , and the class of continuous function strictly decreasing as .
Here, represents the linear space of (local Lipschitz) functions f that satisfies , , for some , depending on
Let
and
Remark 3.
Let be a sub-linear expectation space. Suppose that is a random variable within . For , if and , then it is obtained that each of and is continuous and increasing concerning y. In a similar vein, for , if and , then it can be obtained that each of and is continuous and decreasing concerning y.
Proof.
We only need to demonstrate that is continuous and monotonic but not strictly monotonic. Due to , the continuity and monotonicity of can be also obtained.
We first prove the continuity of . For a random variable , and each , then . So there exist two constants , , for any given , we have
Combining Proposition A1 (iii) in Appendix B, and letting , we have
Thus, for any given .
Next, we give the proof of monotonicity of . With no loss of generality, we only take into account the situation of .
Suppose , then is strictly increasing concerning y for every . For ∀, , we have By the monotonicity of , it follows that Hence, it follows that It is obvious that is not strictly increasing since is not strictly monotonic. □
Our primary result is given in the following theorem. We establish the Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables that are functions of IID random variables under and IID uncertain variables. And the assumption of regularity for uncertain variables is necessary.
Theorem 1
(The Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces). Consider a pair of U-S chance spaces and , and and are the chance measures under U-S chance spaces. Let be a sequence of IID random variables under (see Definition A9 in Appendix B), be a sequence of IID uncertain variables, and , Suppose that and are regular uncertain variables, , and , for and some . Then, for ,
In particularly, if , then
Proof.
For simplification, the uncertainty distributions of and are denoted by and , respectively. Firstly, we can prove (3) by taking into account the situations and , respectively.
Case 1: Let . Fix , and give a such that . For ∀, denote It follows from Theorem A4 (a) in Appendix B, ∃, such that for any ,
If ,
Notice that is an IID uncertain sequence and is a strictly increasing function about y for every x. By (5) and , we obtain
Because is regular, its uncertainty distribution is continuous. Based on the arguments mentioned above and taking , it follows
Another aspect, given
and take such that . For ∀, denote From Theorem A4 (b) in Appendix B, ∃, such that for any ,
If ,
Notice that is an IID uncertain sequence and is a strictly increasing function about y for every x. By (7) and , we have
Applying Proposition 1 (ii), it yields
Because is regular, its uncertainty distribution is continuous. Letting , we obtain
Since , it follows that and Then, for ∀, (3) follows, integrating (6) and (8).
Case 2: Let , then . To make the notation simpler, we use the notations and By taking into account and instead of f and z in (3), we obtain
Due to the fact ,
From Proposition 1 (ii) and the duality axiom of , we obtain
Moreover,
Then, for ∀, (3) follows.
Finally, we consider (4). If , we have
By (3), we obtain
Applying Proposition 1 (iv), we have
and
Combining (10), (11) and (12), we obtain
Hence, (4) is proved. Thus, the proof of Theorem 1 is completed. □
In the degenerate situation for uncertain variables with , x, , Theorem 1 directly leads to the following corollary.
Corollary 1.
Suppose that is a sequence of regular and IID uncertain variables, and . Then for ,
Theorem 2 below includes the degenerate LLNs for random variables with , x, . It can be obtained from Theorems A2 and A3 in Appendix B immediately.
Theorem 2.
Assume that is a sequence of IID random variables under , and , is continuous and for some Then for any ,
and
4. Examples
This section employs the notations in Section 3. Five examples are given, which can be seen as applications of Theorem 1.
Example 1.
and
and
Suppose that is a sequence of IID random variables with maximal distribution under (see Definition A10 in Appendix B), i.e., , for where , , and is a sequence of uncertain variables that are independent, normally distributed, and the uncertainty distribution is
Then, it follows that
- (I)
- For every ,
- (II)
- For any ,
Example 2.
for every ,
for every ,
for every ,
for every with ,
and for every with ,
for every ,
for every ,
for every ,
for every with ,
and for every with ,
and
Suppose that is a sequence of IID random variables with maximal distribution under , i.e., , for where , , and is a sequence of uncertain variables that are independent, linear distributed, and the uncertainty distribution is
where a and b are real numbers with . Then, it follows that
- (I)
- For every ,
- (II)
- For every ,
- (III)
- For any ,
Example 3.
and
and
Suppose that is a sequence of IID random variables with G-normal distribution under (see Definition A11 in Appendix B), i.e., where , and , and is a sequence of uncertain variables that are independent, normally distributed, and the uncertainty distribution is
Then, we have
- (I)
- For any ,
- (II)
- For any ,
Example 4.
and
and
Suppose that is a sequence of IID random variables with G-normal distribution under , i.e., where , and , and is a sequence of uncertain variables that are independent, linear distributed, and the uncertainty distribution is
where a and b are real numbers with . Then, it follows that
- (I)
- For any ,
- (II)
- For any ,
Example 5.
for every ,
for every ,
for every ,
for every with ,
and for every with ,
for every ,
for every ,
for every ,
for every with ,
and for every with ,
and
The triplets and are an upper probability space and a lower probability space, respectively. Assume that is a sequence of IID random variables. The upper and lower probabilities are defined by , , for any , and
where , , and . And assume that is a sequence of uncertain variables that are independent, linear distributed, and the uncertainty distribution is
where a and b are real numbers with . Then, it follows that
- (I)
- For every ,
- (II)
- For every ,
- (III)
- For any ,
Remark 4.
In Theorem 1, if distributions of , are symmetrical, i.e., the distributions of and are same, , exhibit symmetry, i.e., , for all (see [34]), and or , then exhibits the form that is characterized by the symmetrical uncertain variable or , respectively. Example 3 illustrates this remark as a special case.
5. Conclusions
To better handle complex systems where human uncertainty and randomness with sub-linear characteristics coexist, a new type of chance spaces named U-S chance spaces is introduced in this paper. The U-S chance spaces are a pair of two-dimensional spaces made up of uncertainty space and sub-linear expectation space. Additionally, under U-S chance spaces, we define uncertain random variables, chance measures and chance distributions. A novel framework for uncertain random variables is also suggested by merging sub-linear expectation theory with uncertainty theory. This paper’s primary contribution is the derivation of the Kolmogorov type LLN for uncertain random variables that are functions of IID random variables and IID uncertain variables under U-S chance spaces. Five examples were given and explained to better illustrate the LLN for uncertain random variables under U-S chance spaces.These results are obtained under the condition that the uncertain variables are regular, and future research may further weaken the regularity assumptions.
The LLNs in the framework of U-S chance theory provides a solid theoretical foundation for statistical analysis within the same theory, enabling the inference of population characteristics through sample analysis. Based on the LLNs under U-S chance spaces, topics such as statistical inference, parameter estimation, and so on within the theory are all worthy of future research endeavors. And the U-S chance theory provides a robust framework for modeling issues such as stock investment, optimal investment, risk aversion, and the design problems of system reliability in incomplete financial markets. And these issues have been studied to a certain extent in related papers.
Based on this theory, [33] studied the risk aversion problem under incomplete markets subject to government regulation, defined the risk premium and the relative risk premium, and proved Pratt’s theorem within the framework of U-S chance theory. [32] proved operational laws for uncertain random variables, gave four expectations and models of uncertain random programming, and used them to tackle optimal investment in incomplete markets and the design problems of system reliability. Other outcomes from classical probability theory, like multi-objective uncertain random programming, uncertain random networks, and so forth, could be generalized under U-S chance spaces in future research.
Author Contributions
Writing—review and editing, Writing—original draft, X.F.; Supervision, Methodology, Conceptualization, F.H.; Writing—review and editing, Writing—original draft, X.M.; Writing—review and editing, Writing—original draft, Y.T.; Writing—review and editing, Writing—original draft, D.Y. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 11801307, Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province of China Grants No. ZR2017MA012, No. ZR2021MA009 and Postgraduate Dissertation Research Innovation Foundation of Qufu Normal University Grant No. LWCXS202223.
Data Availability Statement
Data sharing is not applicable to this article. No dataset was generated or analyzed during this research.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the and anonymous referees for their constructive suggestions and valuable comments that greatly improved this article. This paper was the subject of the dissertation of Xiaoting Fu while she worked on her master’s degree, and the first version was substantially completed in December 2022. Xue Meng, Yu Tian and Deguo Yang also contributed to the completion of this paper while working on their master’s degrees.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
| LLN | Law of large number |
| U-S chance spaces | A pair of chance spaces generated by uncertainty space and sub-linear expectation space |
| IID | Independent and identically distributed |
| a.s. | almost surely |
Appendix A. Uncertainty Space and Uncertain Variable
We provide a number of fundamental concepts about uncertainty theory. Suppose that is the set of real numbers, and is the - algebra of subsets of .
Definition A1
([9]). Assume that Γ is a nonempty set and is a σ- algebra of subsets of Γ. Let be a set function. If the conditions listed below:
Axiom 1 (normality axiom): ;
Axiom 2 (duality axiom): , ;
Axiom 3 (subadditivity axiom): for any given sequence of events ,
hold, then is called an uncertain measure, and is called an uncertainty space.
Definition A2
([10]). Assume that is an uncertainty space sequence. Let be an uncertain measure on the product σ- algebra. If for any , ,
holds, then is called a product uncertain measure.
Definition A3
([9]). If a function is measurable, then it is called an uncertain variable, i.e., for every ,
An uncertain variable’s uncertainty distribution can be described as a function
For every , if the inverse function is existent and unique, then Ψ and τ are named regular uncertainty distribution and regular uncertain variable, respectively.
Definition A4
([9]). If uncertainty distributions of uncertain variables are same, then uncertain variables are identically distributed.
Definition A5
([10])). Suppose that are uncertain variables on an uncertainty space . They are independent if
for arbitrary ,
Appendix B. Some Results of Sub-Linear Expectation
Frameworks and notations of [23,24,28] are used in this paper.
Given measurable space , let be a linear space of real functions on , and the conditions listed below hold:
(i) suppose , then for every , where represents the linear space of (local Lipschitz) function that satisfies , , for some , depending on
(ii) For any , , where is the indicator function of event A.
Definition A6
([28]). A function is called a sub-linear expectation on if the properties below hold: for all , we have
- (a)
- monotonicity: If , then ;
- (b)
- constant preserving: , ;
- (c)
- sub-additivity: if is not of the form or , then ;
- (d)
- positive homogeneity: , .
The triple is named a sub-linear expectation space. The random variable under sub-linear expectation is a function that satisfies for each . It can be thought of as a random variable space. Considering a sub-linear expectation , the conjugate expectation of can be defined as , .
When the inequality in (c) of Definition A6 turns into equality, is a linear expectation. This is a specific situation of sub-linear expectations. Not considering this particular case, most sub-linear expectations need not require to satisfy , for every . However, a sub-linear expectation may satisfy for some .
Next, we give an example of sub-linear expectations.
Example A1.
During a game, a participant selects a ball at random from a box that includes balls of three colors: white (W), blue (B) and red (R) balls. The participant is not informed of the exact amounts of W, B, and R by the urn’s owner, who serves as the game’s banker. He/she only makes sure that and . Consider a random variables ξ, and
Let We can evaluate the loss , conservatively. We can get that the distribution of ξ is
For each fixed , the robust expectation of ξ can be expressed as
Next, we show that is a sub-linear expectation. For every , we have:
- (a)
- monotonicity: If , then by the monotonicity of .
- (b)
- constant preserving: , .
- (c)
- sub-additivity:
- (d)
- positive homogeneity:
Hence, is a sub-linear expectation. Actually, ∃, , such that . Let
and , . Obviously, , and .
In Example A1, a participant selects a ball at random from a box that contains W, B, and R balls. When the participant picks a ball from the urn repeatedly, at time i, the banker knows the true distribution of ξ, but the participant does not. At time , the banker may change the numbers of B balls and W balls without telling the participant. However, the range of and are both fixed within . For example, at the first time, however, at the second time. Simply stated, when the ball is picked each time, the type of urns is different. The difference between this and the classic game is that the number of B and W balls changes when the participant picks a ball from an urn each time, i.e., for each time, the type of urns changes, while the classic game does not. The range of B and W here is either informed by the banker or determined by the data. More generally, the range of B and W here is the range of . For how to determine the range of by the data, we can later give the principle in Proposition A3.
Proposition A1
([28]). Given a sub-linear expectation space , let be the conjugate expectation of . For any , then
(i) .
(ii) , for .
(iii) .
(iv) and are both finite if is finite.
It is very helpful to know the following sublinear expectation representation theorem.
Theorem A1
([28]) (Robust Daniell-Stone theorem). Suppose that is a sub-linear expectation space, and it satisfies the following condition:
for every sequence of random variables in which fulfills for each . Then, on the measurable space , ∃ a family of probability measures , such that
Here denotes the smallest σ-algebra generated by .
Remark A1.
Theorem A1 shows that: under the suitable condition, a sub-linear expectation could be expressed as a supremum of linear expectations. Based on this theorem, Chen [23] gave the definition of maximum expectation . Definition A7 below provide the concepts of maximum expectation and minimum expectation introduced by Chen [23]. In most cases, the sub-linear expectation is the maximum expectation .
Definition A7
([23]). Suppose that is a measurable space, is the set of all probability measures on Ω, and is the linear expectation under probability measure . For a non-empty subset , and , the upper probability , the lower probability v, the maximum expectation and the minimum expectation are defined by
respectively.
Definition A8
([1]). Let be a set function from to . is named a non-additive probability (also capacity) if properties (i) and (ii) below hold, and is named a lower or an upper continuous non-additive probability if property (iii) or (iv) below also hold:
- (i)
- , .
- (ii)
- If and A, , then .
- (iii)
- If , , and , then .
- (iv)
- If , , and , then .
Remark A2.
(i) The upper probability and the lower probability v are two kinds of specific non-additive probabilities. Furthermore, is subadditive, and for every given . But v is not superadditive. is a sub-linear expectation, and is the conjugate expectation of . Indeed, provided a maximum expectation , and v can be produced by and for any .
(ii) We also call the subset a family of probability measures related to the sub-liner expectation . For a given random variable , let and call it a family of ambiguous probability distributions of X. Therefore, there exist two distributions for X: , and , , named the lower distribution and the upper distribution, respectively. In fact, the lower distribution and the upper distribution of X can characterize the ambiguity of distributions of X.
Throughout this paper, we only explore cases that the sub-linear expectation is the maximum expectation , and the upper probability is upper continuous. Next, the concept of IID random variables under sub-linear expectation is introduced. We use the concept of IID random variables proposed by [24,28].
Definition A9.
(i) Independence: Let be a random variable sequence satisfying . If for every Borel-measurable function φ on with and for every , holds, where and , then random variable is independent to under .
(ii) Identical distribution: Given random variables X and Y, if for every Borel-measurable function φ satisfying , then X and Y are identically distributed, denoted .
(iii) IID random variables: Given a sequence of random variables, if and is independent to for every , then is IID.
Remark A3.
(i) The case “Y is independent to X” occurs when Y occurs after X. Therefore, the information of X should be considered in a robust expectation. In a sub-linear expectation space , the case that Y is independent to X implies that the family of distributions of Y is unchanged after every realization of happens. That is, the “conditional sub-linear expectation” of Y with respect to X is . This notion of independence is merely the classical one when it comes to linear expectation. As illustrated by Peng [27], it should be noticed that the case that “Y is independent to X” is not automatically meant to mean that “X is independent to Y ” under sub-linear expectations. The following Proposition A2 (ii) illustrates this point.
(ii) Let’s consider Example A1 again. Now we could mix completely and randomly. After selecting a ball from the box, we will receive 1 dollar if the selected ball is W, and −1 dollar if it is B. The gain of this game is
That is, if a R ball is selected. We duplicate this game, but after time i the random variable is produced, and a new game starts, the banker can change the number of B balls within the fixed range without telling us. Now if we sold a contract based on the i-th output , then, taking into account the worst case, the robust expectation is
So the sequence is identically distributed. It can also be proved that is independent to . Generally speaking, if denotes a path-dependent loss function, then the robust expected loss is:
(iii) If the sample is actual data related to humanity, management, economics and finance, it is often not guaranteed that it meets the IID condition in classical probability theory. But Example A1 shows that most of the actual data can satisfy, or approximately, the IID condition under given by Definition A9. Also, the test function φ has different meanings for different situations. For example, could become a financial contract based on X, a put option , a consumption function, a profit and loss function, a cost function in an optimal control system, etc. When dealing with theoretical problems about sub-linear expectations, we only need to calculate the sub-linear expectation corresponding to a certain class of function φ that we care about (see Peng [27] subsection 3.2 and 3.3 for more details).
Proposition A2.
Given the maximum expectation , let X and Y be two random variables under , be a family of probability distributions of X that corresponds to the family of probability measures , and be a family of probability distributions of Y that corresponds to the family of probability measures . For every given , then ∃ a family of probability measures satisfying:
(i)
and
Specifically, if Y is independent to X under , or X is independent to Y under , we have
and
(ii) Suppose that Y is independent to X under , then the lower distribution and the upper distribution of are
and
respectively. Suppose that X is independent to Y under , the lower distribution and the upper distribution of are
and
respectively.
Proof.
(i) For (A1), for every given , we obtain
by Definition A7 and Remark A2. Similarly, (A2) follows by the fact
Definition A10
([28]) (Maximal distribution). If , for where , , then the random variable η on a sub-linear expectation space is called maximally distributed.
Definition A11
([28]) (G-normal distribution). If for every given , writing , u is the viscosity solution of the partial differential equation (PDE): where and , , then the random variable η on a sub-linear expectation space with is called G-normal distribution, denoted .
Theorem A2
([24]) (Kolmogorov strong LLN under sub-linear expectation). Assume that is a sequence of IID random variables under , and for some Let , and v and be the lower and upper probabilities respectively. Then
If is upper continuous, then
Definition A12
(Empirical distribution function). Assume that is a sequence of IID random samples from a family of ambiguous probability distributions under sub-linear expectation .
is called the empirical distribution function.
Proposition A3.
Assume that is a sequence of IID random samples from a family of ambiguous probability distributions under sub-linear expectation . Set , Then for every given ,
and
Proof.
Remark A4.
In fact, the empirical distribution function under of the set of observed data can be non-convergent. When it converges, this is the classical probability problem. However, when it does not converge, it is our hypothetical scenario. Let’s still consider Example A1. When the empirical distribution function under does not converge, this situation is what we are concerned about. At this time, the empirical distribution function must have the upper limit and lower limit, where the upper limit is the upper probability, and the lower limit is the lower probability. This is exactly the result of Proposition A3. By Proposition A3, we can determine the value boundary of of Example A1, so as to identify the range of values for in Example A1.
Definition A13.
Suppose that is a provided measurable space, and V is a non-additive probability. If then the random variable sequence converges almost surely (a.s.) to η, denoted , a.s.
Definition A14.
Suppose that is a provided measurable space, and V is a non-additive probability. If ∃, such that converges uniformly to η in for every given and , as , then the random variable sequence converges uniformly to η, a.s.
Theorem A3
(Egoroff’s Theorem under sub-linear expectation). Suppose that is a given measurable space, and v and are the lower and upper probabilities respectively. If the random variable sequence is convergent to η, a.s., with respect to v, then converges uniformly to η, a.s., with respect to v, i.e., for any given , such that , as ,
Proof.
Let D denote the set of these points at which does not converge to . Then
Since is convergent to , a.s., with respect to v, from , we have . Then, for every given , we have
It is clear that
So, from the condition that is upper continuous, it can be obtained that
So, for every given , ∃, such that
Take , then
Since , we have , as . Then for every given , ∃, such that for every given ,
Thus, is convergent uniformly to , a.s., with respect to v. □
Theorem A4.
Suppose that is a sequence of IID random variables under , , and , for any and some . For any , denote , and , . Define
and
(a) For every given and satisfying , , then ∃, such that for every ,
(b) For every given and satisfying , then ∃, such that for every ,
Proof.
Since the proofs of (a) and (b) are similar, we only show (a) here.
(a) Since is a sequence of IID random variables under , then for any , is a sequence of IID random variables under . Hence, by Theorem A2, we have
For every given and such that , denote
and
Obviously, , as , and by (A9), it follows that Thus, from Theorem A3, ∃ and , such that , and for any ,
By (A10), for all and , we have
It implies that
□
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