Next Article in Journal
Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms
Next Article in Special Issue
Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region
Previous Article in Journal
The Positive Feedback Loop between the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Expansion and Relocation
Previous Article in Special Issue
Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk
Article

Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco

1
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany
2
Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, University of Hamburg, Ohnhorststr. 18, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Land 2014, 3(3), 917-940; https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030917
Received: 24 April 2014 / Revised: 4 July 2014 / Accepted: 8 July 2014 / Published: 31 July 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Land Change Modeling: Connecting to the Bigger Picture)
In a modeling study we examine vulnerability of income from mobile (transhumant) pastoralism and sedentary pastoralism to reduced mean annual precipitation (MAP) and droughts. The study is based on empirical data of a 3410 km2 research region in southern, semi-arid Morocco. The land use decision model integrates a meta-model of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) simulator to depict perennial and annual forage plant development. It also includes livestock dynamics and forward-looking decision making under uncertain weather. Mobile livestock in the model moves seasonally, sedentary livestock is restricted to pastures around settlements. For a reduction of MAP by 20%, our model shows for different experimental frequencies of droughts a significant decrease of total income from pastoralism by 8%–19% (p < 0.05). Looking separately at the two modes of pastoralism, pronounced income losses of 18%–44% (p < 0.05) show that sedentary pastoralism is much more vulnerable to dryer climate than mobile pastoralism, which is merely affected. Dedicating more pasture area and high quality fodder to mobile pastoralism significantly abates impacts from reduced MAP and droughts on total income by 11% (p < 0.05). Our results indicate that promotion of mobile pastoralism in semi-arid areas is a valuable option to increase resilience against climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: adaptation; bioeconomic land use modeling; climate change; EPIC; North Africa; resilience; semi-arid pastoralism; transhumance adaptation; bioeconomic land use modeling; climate change; EPIC; North Africa; resilience; semi-arid pastoralism; transhumance
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Freier, K.P.; Finckh, M.; Schneider, U.A. Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco. Land 2014, 3, 917-940. https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030917

AMA Style

Freier KP, Finckh M, Schneider UA. Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco. Land. 2014; 3(3):917-940. https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030917

Chicago/Turabian Style

Freier, Korbinian P., Manfred Finckh, and Uwe A. Schneider 2014. "Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco" Land 3, no. 3: 917-940. https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030917

Find Other Styles

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Only visits after 24 November 2015 are recorded.
Back to TopTop