The Role of Climate Services in Supporting Climate Change Adaptation in Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopia is among the most climate-vulnerable countries in Africa, with agriculture, water resources, health, and disaster risk management highly exposed to climate variability and change. This study examines the role of climate services in supporting climate change adaptation in Ethiopia by combining analyses of historical climate trends, future projections, national policy frameworks, and survey data from both users and providers of climate information. Results show that rainfall and temperature time-series exhibit significant variability, with increasing frequency of droughts and rising temperatures already threatening livelihoods and food security. Climate projections indicate continued warming and uncertain but increasingly extreme rainfall patterns, underscoring the urgency of adaptation. National strategies—including the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy, Growth and Transformation Plans (GTP I and II), and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH)—highlight the centrality of climate services in guiding adaptation across sectors. Survey findings reveal that climate services provided by the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) are widely valued, particularly seasonal climate predictions, but challenges persist in accessibility, capacity, infrastructure, and alignment with user needs. Despite high satisfaction levels among users and providers, gaps remain in technical expertise, dissemination mechanisms, and service co-production. Strengthening climate services—through improved technical capacity, institutional coordination, and user-driven design—will be critical for enhancing Ethiopia’s resilience. The lessons drawn are also relevant to other African countries where climate services can play a critical role in bridging the gap between climate science and climate-resilient development.

1. Introduction

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, with wide-ranging impacts for ecosystems, economies, and societies. Global temperatures have increased by about 1.1 °C since pre-industrial times, primarily due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions leading to widespread environmental and socio-economic disruptions [1]. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and heat waves, are already disrupting natural systems and human livelihoods [2,3]. As global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the Earth’s system will continue undergoing further unprecedented changes, ranging from shifts in climate patterns to the degradation of ecosystems [1,4].

While climate change is a global phenomenon, its impacts are felt most acutely in vulnerable regions, particularly in low-income countries where adaptive capacity is limited and dependence on climate-sensitive sectors is high. For instance, populations across Africa have long endured living with climate challenges, including droughts and floods [5,6,7]. As a developing country in Africa, Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change, with droughts and floods being the most frequent climate-related hazards [8,9]. These and other climate-related hazards have significant implications across critical sectors in Ethiopia, such as food and nutrition security, water resource management, public health, and energy [10,11,12]. Climate variability and change pose a major development challenge in Ethiopia, especially as the country is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which employs about 73% of the labor force and accounts for about 35% of the GDP [13]. Between 1980 and 2016, Ethiopia experienced more than 30 droughts, affecting millions of people [14].

Recognizing the urgent need to address the challenges of climate change and variability, Ethiopia has taken steps to integrate climate adaptation into its development agenda. Efforts have been made to address climate change adaptation, including the development of various policies, plans, and practices aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change and climate variability. Some of these efforts include the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy [15,16], the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) [17], and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) [18].

While the national strategies, policies, and plans provide the foundation for adapting to climate change and managing risks associated with climate variability, their effectiveness depends heavily on the availability of, access to, and use of climate information to guide decision-making at all levels. The pressures posed by climate change on the one hand, and the advancement in climate science on the other, have led to prioritizing the development and provision of climate services by public and private organizations and specialist institutions [19,20,21,22].

Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods, coupled with its limited adaptive capacity, makes access to timely, accurate, and actionable climate information vital for adapting to climate change and managing climate extremes. Climate services can inform agricultural practices, water management, and disaster risk reduction [23,24,25,26] during planning and decision-making stages. As Ethiopia continues to confront the dual challenges of climate change and disaster preparedness, utilization of climate services is increasingly becoming a priority for climate change adaptation and sustainable development [12,27]. For instance, access to climate information and extension services significantly influences farmers’ decisions to adapt their practices, such as crop diversification and the use of early-maturing crop varieties to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change [28].

The government of Ethiopia has been investing for decades in meteorological infrastructure, manpower development, climate information systems, and dissemination mechanisms [29]. The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), the leading institution for weather and climate services in Ethiopia, has been expanding the availability of tailored climate information, including through platforms like the ENACTS (Enhancing national Climate Services) Maproom and other dissemination tools [30,31].

Despite growing recognition of the value of climate services for climate change adaptation and climate risk management in Ethiopia and sustained investment in climate services, integration of climate services into decision-making at different levels is very limited due to multiple barriers. Firstly, there is a significant gap in technical expertise and capacity to produce and utilize climate information effectively. Capacity constraints for EMI affect the production, tailoring, and delivery of timely, localized services [29]. Access to climate information remains limited, particularly for rural and remote communities, where language barriers, low literacy, and weak communication infrastructure reduce the utilization and usefulness of forecasts [32]. Many local governments and communities lack the necessary skills and resources to interpret and apply climate data and information meaningfully in their specific contexts [33]. As a result, integrating climate information into local decision-making processes is often hampered by inadequate training and infrastructure [34,35]. Another challenge is the inherent uncertainty associated with climate projections. For instance, decision-making in water management and agricultural practices is particularly constrained by uncertainties in climate models, complicating the establishment of reliable irrigation schedules and resource allocations [36]. Low spatial resolution of climate forecasts poses challenges to farmers’ abilities to plan effectively [37]. Coordination across institutions is another challenge resulting in overlapping efforts with minimal collective impact [38].

The study seeks to demonstrate the role of climate services in enhancing national resilience to climate variability and change and highlight the challenges limiting the effective use of climate services. Specifically, the research aims to

(i)

provide an overview of historical and projected climate trends in Ethiopia to contextualize risks;

(ii)

examine the policy frameworks guiding climate adaptation and how they integrate climate information;

(iii)

capture the perspectives of both users and providers of climate services through structured surveys; and

(iv)

provide recommendations to strengthen the relevance, accessibility, and impact of climate services for national and subnational adaptation planning.

In doing so, the study aims to bridge the divide between the supply of climate information and its effective application in policy, planning, and practice, thereby enhancing Ethiopia’s resilience to climate variability and change.

While the primary focus is on Ethiopia, the paper also offers a perspective on the use of climate services for risk management and adaptation to climate change in other African countries. Given the shared vulnerabilities, institutional landscapes, and socio-economic contexts across much of the continent, the findings are relevant to broader regional efforts aimed at integrating climate information into decision-making for adaptation and resilience building.

2. Description of the Study Area

2.1. Location and Topography

Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa, within 3° N–15° N latitudes and 33° E–48° E longitude (Figure 1). It covers an area of 1.14 million square kilometers. Ethiopia is both topographically and climatically complex, with vastly different rainfall regimes across the country. The country consists of a complex topography with elevation ranging from 160 m below sea level at the northern exit of the Rift Valley to over 4600 m above sea level in the highlands of the north. (Figure 1).

2.2. Climate Profile of Ethiopia

This is relevant here because understanding Ethiopia’s diverse topography and rainfall regimes is crucial because these variations directly affect the demand for and application of climate services. Ethiopia exhibits several distinctly identifiable climate regimes, shaped by complex patterns and highly variable distributions of rainfall and temperature [39]. This variability is largely driven by the country’s vast and intricate topography, which gives rise to a wide range of climatic conditions—from tropical climates in the lowlands and Rift Valley regions to cool temperate climates in the northern and southern highlands [40].

As illustrated in Figure 2a, the semi-arid and arid areas of northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern Ethiopia experience high average maximum temperatures ranging from 34 °C to 38 °C. In contrast, the high-elevation plateaus extending from south to north record much cooler average minimum temperatures, often below 13 °C (Figure 2b). Overall, mean annual temperatures range between 15 °C and 20 °C in the highlands, while the low-lying regions experience significantly warmer conditions, with mean temperatures ranging from 25 °C to 30 °C (Figure 2c).

Western and northern Ethiopia exhibits mono modal rainfall patterns with the rainfall amount peaking in Kiremt. The temporal distribution in these mono modal rainfall areas shrinks from south to north, ranging from nine months of rainy period over the southwest to only three months in the northeast lowlands. On the other hand, parts of southern Ethiopia experience a bimodal rainfall distribution. Rainfall during the Belg season is highly variable in both time and space effect of the highest maximum temperatures across the country.

The Bega (October to January) season is the driest period for most parts of Ethiopia, except for the southern and southeastern parts, where it is the second rainy season and contributes nearly 30% to annual rainfall totals (see Figure 3a,e). Maximum mean annual rainfall amounts of 1750 to 2250 mm are observed over the southwest and northwest parts of Ethiopia (Figure 3d). For the southern and southeastern regions of Ethiopia, Belg is the main rainy season and contributes 40–60% (Figure 3b,f). For the central and northern half of Ethiopia, Kiremt (JJAS) is the main rainy season, with the seasonal rainfall totals accounting for about 60–90% of the annual rainfall budget (Figure 3c,g).

3. Data Sources and Methodology

3.1. Data Sources

This study aims to understand how weather and climate information products and services can support climate change adaptation in Ethiopia, and to identify which aspects of these products and services are perceived as useful and are actively used in adaptation efforts. To achieve these objectives, the study draws on multiple data sources (

Table 1. Summary of data sources.

No	Data Type	Source
1	Surveys	Survey responses from policymakers, sectoral experts, and EMI employees
2	Desktop review	Relevant government policy, planning, and operational documents related to climate change adaptation as well as journal review papers
3	Climate analysis	Rainfall and temperature observations (1991–2020) from EMI, gridded ENACTS datasets
4	Climate change projection	Selected key parameters from a subset of CMIP6 models (AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CanESM1, ACCESS-CM2, and FGOALS-g3)

), primarily surveys conducted with both expert-level users and policymakers. In addition to the surveys, relevant government policy, planning, and operational documents related to climate change were reviewed.

The study also includes climate data analyses to assess observed trends over the past 30 years (1991–2020) and to examine projected changes in climate over short-, medium-, and long-term time horizons. These analyses utilize high-resolution (4 km × 4 km) gridded rainfall and temperature datasets. These datasets are generated by combining observations from the national meteorological network with satellite rainfall estimates and reanalysis-based temperature products [30,41].

For future climate projections, the study uses outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Only CMIP6 models providing complete and continuous simulations for the historical and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) and with adequate horizontal resolution (≤2.5° × 2.5°) were included. Given the intensive computational requirements, only selected key parameters from a subset of CMIP6 models were used. These results were further refined using statistically downscaled datasets, following a method similar to that employed by [42].

3.2. Methodology

3.2.1. General Overview

To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the various aspects of climate services and their relevance for climate change adaptation in Ethiopia, this study employed three distinct methodological approaches. In the first approach, climate change projections were generated using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These projections provided insights into potential future climate scenarios relevant for adaptation planning.

The second approach involves a comprehensive review of relevant documents and literature. This included systematically identifying, collecting, and analyzing national policies, strategies, and planning documents related to climate change and adaptation in Ethiopia. Peer-reviewed scientific literature on climate services and their role in adaptation was also reviewed to provide a strong theoretical and empirical foundation for the study. The third approach is a structured survey was designed and implemented targeting two key groups:

(i)

users of climate information, including policymakers and practitioners from various sectors and administrative levels; and

(ii)

technical staff from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), based at both headquarters and regional centers.

The survey aimed to gather insights into the perceived importance, accessibility, and use of EMI’s climate services, as well as to assess internal perspectives among EMI staff regarding the Institute’s mission and performance.

The following sub-sections provide a more detailed description of each of these methodological components and Figure 4 provides a summary.

3.2.2. Climate Change Projection

The CMIP6 models were evaluated for their ability to simulate key aspects of the current climate. The models showed considerable variation in performance, with no single model consistently outperforming others. As a result, skill-based weighting was not applied, and all available simulations were used to generate quantitative ranges of projected climate change. However, model evaluation results, though not assessed in detail in this study, were used to inform the selection of individual models for the development of application-ready datasets, notably rainfall and temperature. Projected changes were derived using CMIP6 outputs under a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios defined by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. These scenarios span from RCP2.6, which assumes low emissions and ambitious global mitigation efforts, to RCP8.5, which reflects a high-emission pathway with continued increases in emissions beyond the 21st century.

3.2.3. Desktop Review

To assess Ethiopia’s strategic response to the challenges of climate change and climate variability, a comprehensive review of relevant government documents was undertaken. This review involved the systematic identification, collection, and critical analysis of national policies, strategies, and plans related to climate change adaptation. This review provides a foundation for understanding the evolution of Ethiopia’s policy framework on climate adaptation and managing risks from year-to-year climate variability. The documents reviewed include the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy, the Growth and Transformation Plans (GTP I and II), Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted under the Paris Agreement. These documents were selected due to their centrality in shaping national climate resilience initiatives and their relevance in guiding sectoral and cross-sectoral adaptation planning in Ethiopia. These key policy instruments provide essential insights into Ethiopia’s approach to enhancing climate resilience, fostering sustainable development, and managing risks associated with climate extremes.

3.2.4. Conducting Surveys

The primary objective of the survey was to assess the status of climate services in Ethiopia from both the provider and user perspectives, with a particular focus on understanding the role of climate services in informing climate change adaptation efforts. The survey was mainly closed questions with multiple choices. There were few open questions, but are not used in the analyses here. In order to accomplish this, the survey was conducted for two different groups.

The first group is users of climate information, including policymakers and practitioners from a range of climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, water, health, and DRM) and administrative levels (both regional and federal). The objective of surveying this group is to explore their understanding of weather and climate services and the role of climate services in informing climate change adaptation policy and planning. At the federal level, policymakers for this survey include ministers, state ministers, director generals, commissioners, as well as members of parliament. The number of policy makers and practitioners who participated at the federal level was 97 and 100, respectively. Regional level participants include presidents and heads of regional bureaus (equivalent to federal ministries). Practitioners are middle management and experts from the same sectors, both from the federal and regional governments. The number of policy makers and practitioners from the regional level was 87 and 200, respectively.

The survey questionnaires were distributed to most of the policymakers and practitioners during a National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF). Some other ministries, state ministers, president of regional governments received the surveys during a National Disaster Risk Management Council (NDRMC) meeting. Some more questionnaires were distributed to regional government policy makers, such as the head of the Bureau and experts, through the 11 Regional Meteorological Services Centers (RMSC) during a Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF), and then responses were collected from their offices.

The use of NCOF, NDRMC meetings, and RCOFs as distribution channels provided a unique opportunity to reach high-level policymakers and practitioners who are typically difficult to access under normal circumstances. Furthermore, because participants were engaged in climate-focused events, it is reasonable to assume that they possessed a foundational awareness of climate-related issues, thereby enhancing the quality and relevance of the responses compared to surveys of the general public.

The second group, representing the supply side, consisted of 156 technical staff from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), including personnel based at the headquarters and the 11 Regional Meteorological Services Centers (RMSCs) distributed across the country. The survey targeting this group sought to assess several aspects: (i) their understanding of the mission and strategic objectives of EMI; (ii) their satisfaction with the institution’s overall performance; (iii) their perception of their contribution to the delivery of climate services; and (iv) their satisfaction with their work environment and career development opportunities.

This dual approach—surveying both the users and providers of climate information—enabled a more comprehensive evaluation of climate services in Ethiopia, providing valuable insights into existing gaps, strengths, and areas requiring improvement to enhance the effectiveness of climate services in supporting climate change adaptation initiatives. The insights gathered from these surveys provide a foundation for understanding the current landscape of climate services in Ethiopia. They not only highlight the perceptions, needs, and challenges faced by users and providers but also point to systemic factors that influence the delivery and utilization of climate information for adaptation planning.

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. Observed Climate Variability, Trends, and Change in Ethiopia

4.1.1. Observed Rainfall and Temperature Variability, and Historical Trends

Climate variability presents a significant challenge to Ethiopia, affecting food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction, and broader sustainable development efforts. It also contributes to natural resource degradation and the increased occurrence of natural disasters [43,44]. The frequency of droughts in Ethiopia has increased markedly, now occurring about once every 2–3 years, compared to once every 10 years in the recent past [45]. In contrast, flood events—such as the devastating 2006 floods—have caused substantial loss of life and property across various parts of the country [46].

Climate variability in Ethiopia has been linked to anomalies in ocean circulation patterns, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Several studies, including those by refs. [47,48,49], have demonstrated that ENSO significantly influences rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. examined the impact of the warm phase of ENSO and found that the 1997/98 El Niño led to highly abnormal rainfall distribution.

Like many other countries, Ethiopia is experiencing climate change–induced shifts in both temperature and rainfall. Figure 5 and Figure 6 present rainfall and temperature trends averaged over the entire country. Rainfall values are shown for the three main rainy seasons—Belg, Kiremt, and Bega—while temperature values are presented as annual averages. As expected, both minimum and maximum temperatures exhibit a gradual increase over the past forty years. Rainfall trends, however, vary by season: the Kiremt season shows a slight increase, whereas the Belg season indicates a decreasing trend. These patterns also exhibit substantial spatiotemporal variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends reported depending on the specific region and time period under analysis [50].

4.1.2. Future Rainfall Projections in Ethiopia

Ethiopia experiences pronounced spatial and temporal variability in precipitation, and projections indicate substantial uncertainty regarding future rainfall patterns. Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of both droughts and floods [51]. To better capture these dynamics, [42] applied the Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile Mapping Reordering (BCCAQ) statistical downscaling method to produce high-resolution (10 km) climate change projections for Ethiopia, drawing on 16 CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5.

In this study, four advanced GCMs from the CMIP6 ensemble were selected to represent a range of plausible futures. These four models were selected based on established performance criteria widely adopted in climate research. Specifically, models evaluated for their ability to realistically simulate historical climate conditions over the study region—particularly temperature and precipitation patterns, seasonal cycles, and the representation of extreme events. To address projection uncertainty, we employed a multi-model ensemble approach designed to capture the full range of plausible future climate outcomes. Ensemble mean projections were analyzed alongside the inter-model spread to better represent uncertainty and variability across models. This is consistent with best-practice recommendations outlined in the framework and helps ensure that the resulting projections are both robust and reproducible.

These models differ in their ability to capture rainfall thresholds and the spatial granularity of projected changes. Among the scenarios, SSP5-8.5 presents the most extreme outcomes, with projected increases in rainfall of 20% to 30% in already wet regions, alongside drying trends in transitional zones such as central Ethiopia. These changes are expected to exacerbate flood risks in high-rainfall areas like the Blue Nile Basin while intensifying water scarcity in the arid eastern lowlands. At the same time, projected increases in rainfall may offer opportunities to expand agricultural production in the wetter highlands. However, they also pose significant challenges, including heightened risks of soil erosion and waterlogging in areas prone to extreme rainfall.

A multi-model comparison of short-term annual rainfall projections for Ethiopia was conducted, incorporating both historical data and future climate scenarios under different SSPs and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The findings of this comparison are summarized in

Table 2. Annual rainfall projection trends as generated using four models that participated in CMIP6.

Climate	Trends (1985–2014)
Historical (1985–2014)	All models show relatively stable annual rainfall (~800–1200 mm) during the historical period, with minor inter-annual variability and no drastic trends in rainfall increase or decrease, suggesting a baseline of moderate climate stability.
Scenario	Projections (2015–2100)
SSP2-4.5	(Moderate Mitigation): Rainfall increases gradually but remains within historical variability (~1000–1400 mm by 2100) and least extreme changes across models
SSP3-7.0	(High Challenges): Higher variability, with some models (e.g., UKESM1) projecting spikes (~1600 mm) and others (e.g., AWI-CM-1-1-MR) showing more modest increases) UKESM1: Shows sharp spikes under SSP3-7.0
SSP5-8.5	(ACCESS-CM2: Very High Emissions): Most extreme projections RF (~1800 mm by 2100) UKESM1: Shows sharp spikes indicating high climate sensitivity exceeding (~1600 mm by 2100) AWI-CM-1-1-MR and CAMS-CSM1: More conservative in projections, with smoother trends (~1400 mm by 2100).

and illustrated in Figure 7 below.

4.1.3. Future Temperature Projections in Ethiopia

The mean annual temperature has been increasing at a rate of about 0.2 °C to 0.28 °C per decade. Future climate projections indicate a continued rise in temperature, with an expected increase ranging from 0.5 °C to 2.2 °C by the 2050s compared to current levels [52,53]. To illustrate future temperature trends over Ethiopia, projections of annual maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) were developed for the period 1985 to 2100. These projections were compared with historical data under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis is based on outputs from four global climate models: AWI-CM-1-1-MR, FGOALS-g3, CanESM5, and ACCESS-CM2. The results are summarized in

Table 3. Historical and Tmax scenario projections derived from four climate models.

Climate	Trends (1985–2014)
Historical (1985–2014)	All models show relatively stable Tmax (~27–29 °C) with minor inter-annual variability and no drastic warming trends, suggesting a baseline of moderate temperature stability
Scenario	Projections (2015–2100)
SSP2-4.5	(Moderate Mitigation) shows Tmax increases gradually, reaching ~29–30 °C by 2100 and least extreme changes across models
SSP3-7.0	(High Challenges) indicates faster warming, with Tmax reaching ~30–31 °C by 2100 and higher variability in some models (e.g., ACCESS-CM2) whereas SSP5-8.5 Other models (e.g., AWI-CM-1-1-MR) show milder increases (~30–31 °C)
SSP5-8.5	AWI-CM-1-1-MR indicates more conservative, with Tmax reaching ~30 °C under SSP5-8.5 FGOALS-g3 and CanESM5 show intermediate trends, with Tmax peaking at ~30–31 °C ACCESS-CM2 projects the highest Tmax extremes under SSP5-8.5 (~33 °C by 2100) and suggests accelerated warming after 2050.

and Figure 8.

Annual minimum temperature (Tmin) from 1985 to 2100 was computed and compared with historical data and future projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their associated Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis followed the same models and procedures described in the preceding sections. Accordingly, the projections are based on four global climate models: EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, FGOALS-g3, CNRM-CM6, and CNRM-ESM2. The results are presented in

Table 4. Historical and Tmin scenario projections derived from four climate models.

Climate	Trends (1985–2014)
Historical (1985–2014)	models show relatively stable Tmin (~14–18 °C) during the historical period, with minor fluctuations and no drastic cooling or warming trends, indicating a baseline of moderate
Scenario	Projections (2015–2100)
SSP2-4.5	SSP2-4.5 (Moderate Mitigation Tmin increases gradually, reaching ~16–18 °C by 2100 and least extreme changes across models
SSP3-7.0	SSP3-7.0 (High Challenges); Faster warming, with Tmin rising to ~17–19 °C by 2100 and higher variability in models like CNRM-ESM2
SSP5-8.5	SSP5-8.5 (Very High Emissions); Most extreme warming on CNRM-CM6 and CNRM-ESM2 project Tmin up to ~18–20 °C by 2100 and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR FGOALS-g3 show milder increases (~17–18 °C). CNRM-CM6 and CNRM-ESM2: Project the highest Tmin extremes under SSP5-8.5 (~20 °C), suggesting accelerated nighttime warming, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR: More conservative, with Tmin peaking at ~17 °C under SSP5-8.5 and FGOALS-g3: Shows intermediate trends, aligning closely with EC-Earth3-Veg-LR.

and Figure 9.

4.2. Climate Change in Ethiopia: Impacts and Adaptation Efforts

Climate change and variability are major challenges for Ethiopia. They affect key sectors such as agriculture, water, and public health. The country’s economy and livelihoods depend heavily on natural resources, especially agriculture and water, which are very sensitive to climate [10,12]. Changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events have already altered hydrological cycles and agricultural productivity, thereby worsening food insecurity and health risks [10,12]. Since 1990, the country has experienced several major floods, resulting in the deaths of about 2000 people and affecting nearly 2.2 million others [54].

Recognizing the pressing threats posed by climate change and variability, Ethiopia has undertaken significant efforts to develop a robust adaptation framework. A central element of this strategy is the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and mitigation into national development plans. The following sections summarize the impacts of climate change and variability on Ethiopia’s three most climate-sensitive sectors—agriculture, water, and health—and highlight the country’s key adaptation initiatives.

4.2.1. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Ethiopia’s heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture and smallholder farming makes it highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Smallholder farmers and rural communities are particularly at risk due to their limited adaptive capacity and high exposure to climate extremes. Climate change has intensified both the frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts and floods, with major drought episodes recorded in 1973–1974, 1984–1985, 2011, and most recently in 2020–2022 [55].

Another emerging impact is heat stress, which has far-reaching consequences, including reduced crop yields, diminished livestock productivity, and a decline in the overall viability of farming and pastoral systems [56]. Studies show that droughts, exacerbated by rising temperatures, have significantly reduced agricultural output, increasing food insecurity across the country [55]. These challenges have raised serious concerns about the sustainability of Ethiopia’s agricultural sector.

Erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells are already reducing yields and threatening food production. With limited resources for adaptation, many smallholder farmers are forced to adopt coping strategies that may further undermine their agricultural practices and long-term resilience [57]. Farmers in agro-ecologically diverse regions face elevated risks from climate change, resulting in negative impacts on crop yields, food security, and rural livelihoods [58]. For example, climate simulations of Ethiopia’s primary growing season (Kiremt) under various warming scenarios suggest that future climate shocks could severely affect staple crops, placing millions at risk of hunger [12].

Livestock production is equally vulnerable to climate change. Climatological characteristics such as ambient temperature and rainfall patterns have a great influence on pasture and feed resource availability [59]. Variations in rainfall affect not only the quantity and distribution of pasture and water but also the quality of forage, grazing conditions, and the prevalence of weeds, pests, and diseases [60]. Pastoral areas, especially in Ethiopia’s lowlands, frequently suffer from droughts that result in high livestock mortality, threatening the sustainability of pastoral livelihoods and leading to famine and human fatalities [57]. Increasing frequency of droughts and floods in many areas of Ethiopia in recent years has intensified the hardship faced by communities already grappling with the consequences of existing climate variability [59].

Another impact of climate change and extremes is displacement, migration, and exacerbating pre-existing tensions leading to conflicts [61]. Climate change has also disrupted the livelihoods of agro-pastoralists through increased livestock mortality, crop failure, livestock diseases and pests, and severe drying of pastures and water sources [57]. For instance, the prolonged droughts between 2020 and 2022 in Ethiopia’s lowland regions caused widespread food insecurity, mass livestock deaths, and large-scale displacement of populations [55].

4.2.2. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

Water resources in Ethiopia, which are critical for agriculture, domestic use, and hydro power generation, have also been significantly affected by change. Shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are altering streamflow regimes and reducing water availability in key river basins such as the Blue Nile [10]. These disruptions affect not only the natural hydrological cycles but also limit the capacity of water systems to support irrigation, which is essential for sustaining agricultural productivity [10,51].

The impact on water resources is intertwined with the water-energy nexus as declining water availability under future climate conditions threatens hydropower generation, an essential component of Ethiopia’s energy supply and economic development [62,63] noted that climate change could reduce the hydroelectric capacity of the Blue Nile basin, thereby affecting both energy production and agricultural irrigation. The growing risk of water scarcity is further compounded by growing urbanization and industrial demands, which intensify competition over limited water supplies and raise the likelihood of conflicts over water use [64,65].

4.2.3. Climate Change Impacts on Human Health

The health sector in Ethiopia is not immune to climate-induced challenges, as public health outcomes are also being compromised by the direct and indirect effects of climate variability and change. According to a recent report by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC), the most urgent risks of the climate change in Ethiopia are the spread and increased incidence of vector-borne diseases such as Malaria and Dengue Fever, increased risk of diarrheal diseases, and the risk of under nutrition [61].

The incidence of diseases such as malaria and water-borne infections has risen, with strong links to climatic factors [66]. Rising temperatures and more frequent floods have contributed to an increased incidence of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, as well as water-borne illnesses that tend to surge during flood events. Ethiopia experiences pronounced spatial and temporal variability in precipitation, and projections indicate substantial uncertainty regarding future rainfall patterns. Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of both droughts and floods [51]. To better capture these dynamics, [42] applied the Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile Mapping Reordering (BCCAQ) statistical downscaling method to produce high-resolution (10 km) climate change projections for Ethiopia, drawing on 16 CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Deteriorating water quality and reduced availability in such periods further increase the risk of illness [30,61]. Water scarcity caused by droughts has also been linked to negative impacts on mental health, particularly among pastoralist communities, who face increasing challenges in accessing water and sustaining their livestock [61].

Heat stress is another emerging health hazard associated with climate change. It affects physical health and has serious implications for mental well-being, particularly among vulnerable groups such as healthcare workers. As [66] highlight, climate change represents a significant global health threat, resulting in a complex interplay of health risks. Heat stress can exacerbate existing health conditions, leading to increased morbidity and mortality rates, especially among socioeconomically vulnerable populations [66]. Healthcare providers, already working under challenging conditions, experience heightened work-related stress, which is intensified during heatwaves when demands on the health system surge [67,68].

In summary, a growing body of academic research underscores the profound and interconnected impacts of climate change and variability on Ethiopia’s agriculture, water resources, and public health sectors. Reduced water availability, coupled with erratic rainfall and rising temperatures, threatens agricultural productivity, food security, and economic stability. At the same time, altered hydrological regimes heighten the risk of water scarcity, compromising both irrigation and hydropower production, and increasing the prevalence of waterborne diseases.

4.3. Ethiopia’s Adaptation Efforts: National Strategies, Polices, and Plans

Integrating climate-compatible development into national policy frameworks is key to address both mitigation and adaptation dimensions of climate change [69]. The Government of Ethiopia has acknowledged the critical need to embed climate change adaptation into development planning. This has been highlighted in the recent initiatives to mainstream climate considerations into national strategies, ensuring that adaptation becomes a core component of long-term development rather than a reactive response. These strategies aim to enhance the resilience of water infrastructure through better monitoring systems and risk assessment tools, while supporting agricultural innovations that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sustain crop productivity [12,70].

The key national strategies, policies and plans the government has implemented include the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy, the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). In addition to these overarching strategies, several sector-specific policies have incorporated climate adaptation elements. Notable examples include the Agricultural Growth Program, the National Health Adaptation Strategy, and the Ethiopia Water Resources Policy. Furthermore, the recently launched 2023–2030 roadmap for a Multi-Hazard, Impact-Based Early Warning and Early Action System (MH-IB-EWEAS) aims to strengthen anticipatory action for climate and disaster risks [71]. Many regional governments have also developed localized adaptation plans aligned with the national framework, allowing for more context-specific responses to climate vulnerabilities. The following subsection summarizes some of the key national-level strategies, policies, and plans that guide Ethiopia’s adaptation efforts.

Launched in 2011, the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy was Ethiopia’s first effort to mainstream climate issues into national planning efforts within key sector plans. Since then, the CRGE has become the cornerstone for Ethiopia’s climate change adaptation efforts and been used to guide and further strengthen the integration of climate change issues into other national plans [15]. It is designed to integrate both mitigation and adaptation measures into the country’s broader development. This is accomplished by fostering economic growth while safeguarding environmental sustainability through the pursuit of a climate-resilient development pathway [15,16].

The CRGE emphasizes aligning economic development with environmental goals through the promotion of low-carbon industrialization, the expansion of renewable energy, and the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices [38]. Its key strategies included enhanced crop and livestock production; natural resource development, forest protection, and reforestation programs; expanding electricity power generation from renewable sources of energy; and leapfrogging to modern and energy-efficient technologies in transportation, industry, and construction [15]. The CRGE has laid the groundwork for several key national strategies and programs, including Ethiopia’s initial Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the country’s five-year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP).

Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) sets a five-year pathway for rapid economic growth while lowering greenhouse gas emissions. It emphasizes sustainable agriculture, water conservation, and farmer support for climate adaptation, alongside investments in irrigation and soil-water conservation infrastructure critical for climate-sensitive agriculture [12]. GTP I (2010–2015) focused mainly on growth, while GTP II (2016–2020) marked a shift by making climate change and environmental concerns central priorities. Through a top-down approach, it mainstreamed the CRGE into sectoral development plans, embedding climate considerations into national development.

Ethiopia launched its National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) in 2019 to strengthen resilience to climate change. It builds on the CRGE strategy, GTP II, sectoral strategies, and local adaptation plans. The plan takes a medium- to long-term approach to reducing vulnerability in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, water, health, and energy [18]. A key focus is integrating adaptation into national and local planning and budgeting. It emphasizes climate information services, gender-responsive approaches, and localized action. The plan aims to embed adaptation within Ethiopia’s development trajectory, supported by strong institutions, finance, capacity development, disaster risk management, and cross-sectoral coordination.

In 2025, Ethiopia began revising the plan to reflect updated climate projections and development goals [72]. Overall, NAP-ETH shows Ethiopia’s commitment to integrated climate adaptation, sustainable development, and a climate-resilient economy.

Ethiopia’s updated 2021 NDC, aligned with the 10-Year Development Plan and building on the CRGE strategy, emphasizes both mitigation and adaptation. It outlines 40 priority interventions across sectors such as agriculture, water, health, transport, and urban development to boost resilience to climate shocks. Key targets include strengthening institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, expanding social protection and insurance, and integrating WASH services into adaptation efforts [30,73].

In summary, Ethiopia’s response to climate change is marked by a wide range of adaptation efforts across key sectors, including health, agriculture, water resources, ecosystem management, and socio-economic development. National strategies such as CRGE, along with the integration of climate change into development planning and regulatory frameworks, reflect a forward-looking commitment to building climate resilience. Ethiopia’s evolving policy and planning landscape demonstrates a comprehensive and integrated approach to protecting livelihoods and promoting sustainable development in the face of climate change.

5. The Role of Climate Services in Climate Change Adaptation in Ethiopia

Climate services aim to bridge the gap between climate science and societal needs by translating complex data into accessible, actionable information [74,75]. They are co-produced through collaboration among meteorological services, research institutions, governments, NGOs, and end users, delivering products such as seasonal forecasts, climate trend analyses, early warning systems, and tailored advisories [13,37]. The effectiveness of climate services depends on aligning high-quality scientific data with users’ specific needs, timely delivery, and sustained engagement with stakeholders. This is best achieved through co-production, where providers, practitioners, and knowledge holders collaborate in equitable partnerships to jointly design and develop relevant climate information products [76,77,78,79].

Despite growing recognition of their value, the effective implementation of climate services faces several challenges. One major hurdle is the persistent gap between the provision of climate information and its actual use by end users. As [80] emphasize, assessing the effectiveness of existing climate services is critical to identifying misalignments with user needs. Addressing these gaps requires continuous communication and feedback between climate scientists and users to ensure that services remain relevant, accessible, and actionable.

5.1. Climate Services in Ethiopia

Climate services in Ethiopia lie at the critical intersection of policy, adaptation strategies, and societal resilience in the face of increasing climate variability and change. The country has recognized that the successful implementation of its ambitious climate policies depends on improving the accessibility, relevance, and usability of climate information to support socio-economic resilience. In line with this recognition, the government has made long-standing investments in the EMI to enhance meteorological infrastructure, develop human capacity, and improve climate information systems and dissemination mechanisms [29].

The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) is the government’s mandated agency for all meteorological activities. EMI’s core mandate includes operating the national observation network, archiving and disseminating data, and sharing information under international agreements [29]. It also provides weather forecasts, early warnings, and advisory services on hazards such as flash floods, droughts, air pollution, and climate change [29].

To institutionalize and coordinate climate services, Ethiopia has established the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) with a strategic plan spanning from 2021 to 2030 [81]. The NFCS is set up as a multi-stakeholder governance structure that is expected to pave a practical ground to implement an integrated, collaborative and cross-sector approach. It aims to support five priority sectors: agriculture, health, disaster risk management, water resources, and the environment [81].

Despite progress, the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) still faces major challenges. These include financial constraints, weak infrastructure, limited computational capacity, and poor data accessibility [29]. Technical gaps involve outdated tools, inadequate data storage and processing, and difficulties in acquiring and maintaining equipment such as AWS, AWOS, radars, satellite stations, and high-performance computing systems. A severe shortage of skilled meteorologists and technical experts further hampers EMI’s ability to meet rising demands for quality climate services.

5.2. Analysis of Survey Results on Climate Services in Ethiopia

This section presents the results of a comprehensive survey aimed at assessing the state of climate services in Ethiopia from two distinct but complementary perspectives. The first perspective reflects the views of external users of EMI’s climate data, information, and services. This group includes a diverse set of stakeholders: technical experts from key sectors such as agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and health, as well as policymakers involved in planning and decision-making processes. Respondents represent both federal and regional (state) levels, ensuring a broad geographic and institutional coverage. In total, approximately 480 external users participated in this component of the survey. The second perspective comes from an internal assessment involving EMI staff. This survey included personnel from EMI’s headquarters in Addis Ababa as well as staff from the 11 Regional Meteorological Services offices across the country, with a total of 158 respondents.

The survey for external users was primarily designed to evaluate two key aspects:

• The importance of EMI’s climate data, information, and services to the users and their institutions.
• The level of satisfaction users have with the accessibility, quality, accuracy, and timeliness of EMI’s products and services.

In contrast, the internal staff survey focused on capturing insights about:

• Staff understanding of EMI’s mission and the concept of climate services.
• Staff perceptions of how well EMI is delivering on its mission and fulfilling its mandate.
• Levels of self-assessed performance among staff and their satisfaction with the overall performance of the institution.

The survey captures both user and provider perspectives, offering a comprehensive assessment of EMI’s climate services. The external survey reflects user views on service delivery and value, while the internal survey highlights staff perceptions of the institution’s performance.

5.2.1. Presentation of Survey Results for Users

• Importance of EMI services and what information products are most important

The importance of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) to its diverse user groups was assessed through a combination of direct and indirect survey questions. The direct assessment involved asking users how relevant they consider climate data, information, and services in guiding policy-making processes. Results show that 44% of respondents view these services as critical for informing policy decisions, while an additional 50% rated them as very important. This demonstrates a strong consensus on the central role that climate information plays in policy formulation across the user groups.

Indirectly, users were asked about their primary sources of climate information and their institution’s willingness to pay for such services. Findings reveal that only 15% of respondents obtain climate data and services from sources other than EMI, indicating that the vast majority are reliant on EMI as their main provider. Although EMI enjoys a dominant position, the 15% obtaining climate information from other sources suggest that alternative providers exist and could expand. When asked about their institution’s willingness to pay for EMI’s services (

Table 5. Responses by Federal and Regional policy makers (PM) and experts (Exp) to the question “If EMI does not provide it freely, how likely is your institution to pay for the data, forecast, information, or services you receive from EMI?”. The values are percentages for each group.

	Regional PM	Federal PM	Regional Exp	Federal Exp
Very likely	19	24	18	29
Somewhat likely	36	40	39	35
Neutral	25	19	24	26
Not very likely	14	10	14	8
Not likely at all	6	7	6	1

), 22% of respondents indicated they would be likely to pay, while 37% said they would be somewhat likely to do so. In contrast, 12% responded not very likely and 5% not likely at all, amounting to 17% expressing low willingness to pay. Additionally, 23% of respondents were uncertain about their institution’s willingness to pay. There are no differences in the responses of the Regional Policy Makers (PM) and Regional Experts (Exp), whereas some differences are observed between the two groups at the Federal level, although these differences are not consistent across the different categories.

Taken together, both the direct and indirect measures provide a comprehensive picture of EMI’s perceived value. While the direct responses highlight the recognized importance of climate services in decision-making, the willingness to pay—as captured through the indirect questions—provides a more tangible and realistic indicator of how much users and their institutions value the services provided by EMI. The relatively high proportion of users willing or somewhat willing to pay underscores the significant and practical relevance of EMI’s offerings to its stakeholders. Willingness to pay is often seen as a proxy for perceived utility and dependency; thus, a majority inclination toward payment signals that EMI’s services are not only valued in principle but also in practice. The 23% of users who are unsure about paying indicates a segment that may need more targeted engagement. EMI could benefit from improving communication about the tangible benefits of its services or offering service tiers that allow users to see clear added value.

In terms of identifying the most important products for users, the survey employed two direct questions: the first asked respondents to name EMI’s most important function, and the other asked about the most important type of information they use. When asked about EMI’s most important function (

Table 6. Responses by Federal and Regional policy makers (PM) and experts (Exp) to the question “Which of the following EMI functions do you consider most important?”. The values are percentages for each group.

	Regional PM	Federal PM	Regional Exp	Federal Exp
Weather observations	16	22	16	33
Weather forecast (Climate prediction)	53	63	48	47
Climate data analysis	18	6	21	17
Climate change projections	5	5	4	1
Climate change adaptation	8	4	12	2

), 51% of respondents cited climate prediction, while 21% pointed to weather forecasting. The prominence of climate prediction, which mainly refers to seasonal rainfall forecasts, is not surprising. Many of the respondents regularly attend EMI’s seasonal forecast forums, where these predictions are released and discussed. Seasonal forecasts have become particularly critical in Ethiopia, where the variability of rainfall from year to year, often influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, can have profound impacts on agriculture, water resources, and disaster management. Consequently, these forecasts are not only important to operational users but are also highly anticipated by the government for strategic planning and early action. Given this, it is crucial for EMI to maintain the quality, accessibility, and relevance of these forecasts. Continued investment in improving seasonal prediction skill, particularly in relation to ENSO events, will be key.

In response to the question about the type of product users rely on most, the results are more varied. Weather and seasonal forecasts together account for 45% of responses. However, other products also received significant attention: 16% of respondents prioritize historical climate data, 17% rely on real-time or current weather data, and another 17% reported using a combination of different products. This diversity of responses likely reflects the broad range of institutional needs and decision contexts among EMI’s user base. While some organizations depend heavily on forward-looking forecasts for operational planning (e.g., agriculture, disaster risk management), others need historical data for climate risk assessments, research, and policy formulation. The inclusion of real-time data suggests a demand for high-frequency, up-to-date information to support short-term decision-making and monitoring. The notable proportion of users who reported using a combination of products points to a demand for integrated, user-friendly platforms where multiple types of climate information are available in one place. EMI’s ENACTS maproom [29], which offers an array of historical data, real-time observations, and forecasts products would greatly satisfy this need for diverse type of climate information.

In summary, the survey results highlight EMI’s critical role and strong positioning in Ethiopia’s climate services landscape. By strategically leveraging these insights, EMI can not only reinforce its relevance but also chart a path toward greater sustainability, user loyalty, and enhanced impact in national development efforts. While climate prediction remains the cornerstone of EMI’s services, the diversity in users’ preferences points to opportunities for EMI to broaden its service offerings and enhance its impact. By balancing the enhancement of its core seasonal forecasting services with expanded access to historical and real-time data and more integrated products, EMI can better serve its users and strengthen its role as the national leader in climate information services.

ii.

Satisfaction with EMI products and services

Multiple survey questions were used to gauge user satisfaction across several key dimensions: accessibility and usability of climate data, quality of historical and monitoring data, accuracy of weather and seasonal forecasts, and the timeliness of early warning information (e.g.,

Table 7. Responses by Federal and Regional policy makers (PM) and experts (Exp) to the question “How satisfied are you with the accessibility and usability of climate data and/or information provided by EMI?”. The values are percentages for each group.

	Regional PM	Federal PM	Regional Exp	Federal Exp
Very satisfied	17	30	27	40
Satisfied	58	53	47	50
Neutral	21	11	22	9
Dissatisfied	3	6	3	1
Very dissatisfied	0	0	1	0

). Overall, satisfaction levels are high. Among respondents, 78% reported being satisfied or very satisfied with the accessibility and usability of the climate data and information provided by EMI. In terms of data quality, 70% expressed satisfaction with the quality of historical climate data, while 78% indicated they were satisfied with the quality of monitoring data.

When it comes to forecast accuracy, 78% of users are satisfied or very satisfied with the accuracy of weather forecasts, and 75% reported similar levels of satisfaction with the accuracy of seasonal forecasts. These satisfaction ratings are notably high across all dimensions evaluated. Although such high satisfaction levels might appear optimistic at first glance, they are reasonable given EMI’s dominant role as the primary and often sole provider of climate and weather information in Ethiopia. Users regularly depend on EMI’s forecasts and data for decision-making, and the institution’s long-standing presence and national reach likely contribute to the generally positive perceptions. Additionally, frequent user engagement through forums, such as the seasonal forecast dissemination workshops, may reinforce user confidence in the institution’s services.

Even though these high satisfaction levels indicate that EMI is meeting core user expectations. maintaining and further enhancing these strengths will be essential to sustaining user trust and loyalty. For instance, forecast accuracy can still be improved by leveraging advances in modeling techniques, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data assimilation, and high-resolution forecasting systems. In this regard, it is encouraging that EMI has already started exploring the use of AI for improving weather forecasts. Timeliness remains a critical factor in the value of climate services, especially in early warning systems. Thus, ensuring that early warning information is delivered promptly and in actionable formats could further strengthen user satisfaction.

In summary, the survey results reflect strong user confidence in EMI’s data and forecasts. However, maintaining this positive reputation will require a commitment to continuous improvement, user engagement, and adaptation to new scientific and technological developments. By doing so, EMI can secure its position as a trusted and indispensable provider of climate information and services in Ethiopia.

5.2.2. Presentation of Survey Results for EMI Staff

• Understanding of weather climate services provided by EMI

Two questions were included in the survey to assess EMI staff’s understanding of weather and climate services provided by their institution. The first question asked respondents to define climate services, while the second one asked about the types of climate information products they believe EMI provides operationally.

For the first question, the majority of respondents (74%) defined climate services in terms of technical activities they perform, with 53% associating it with the collection, processing, and visualization of climate data and another 21% selecting data analysis and forecasting. Only 22% of the staff selected the definition closer to the internationally accepted understanding of climate services, which is the provision of climate information that supports decision-making. This response highlights a notable gap in the understanding of climate services among EMI staff. Their view frames climate services primarily from a supply-side, data-centric perspective that focused on what EMI does rather than the intended demand-side, user-oriented purpose. This is significant because such a narrow, supply-driven understanding risks misaligning EMI’s activities with user needs. A service-oriented mindset, emphasizing usability and impact, is critical for enhancing the relevance and uptake of climate information.

Regarding the second question on the types of climate information products EMI provides operationally, 33% of respondents identified seasonal forecasts as the main product, followed by 12% who chose climate monitoring information, and 10% who pointed to analysis and assessment based on historical data (

Table 8. Responses by EMP technical staff to the question “What kind of climate information (data and products) does EMI provide operationally to the general public and or specific users.

Response Category	Value (%)
Long range forecasts	33
Climate monitoring	12
Analysis and assessment based on historical data	10
Historical climate data	6
El Nino monitoring and outlooks	5
Climate change projections	5
Long term trends	6
Others (please specify)	3

). It is notable that seasonal forecasts were also selected as the top product by external users in the other parts of the survey. Several factors may explain this. First, seasonal forecasts are publicly disseminated and highly visible through media briefings and official events, making them more prominent in the minds of both providers and users. Second, seasonal forecasts have considerable strategic value for sectors like agriculture, water resources, and disaster risk management, where anticipating the upcoming season’s conditions can be crucial for planning and preparedness. This visibility and perceived value could overshadow other products that EMI provides more frequently, such as daily, weekly, and monthly climate bulletins and monitoring updates. The lower recognition of climate monitoring and historical climate analyses, which are services that are vital for understanding trends, variability, and long-term planning, may suggest that these products are under-promoted or undervalued internally.

These findings underscore the need for continued capacity-building within EMI, not only in technical areas but also in reshaping institutional perspectives toward a more service-oriented, user-driven climate information delivery model.

ii.

Satisfaction with the performance of the Institution and that of their own

Three survey questions were used to assess the satisfaction of EMI staff with the performance of both their institution and themselves in fulfilling EMI’s mission. Specifically, the questions gauged (i) how well staff perceive EMI’s services to align with Ethiopia’s national goals for disaster risk management (DRM) and climate adaptation, (ii) the level of confidence staff have in the institution’s impact on DRM and related areas, and (iii) their satisfaction with their own performance in supporting EMI’s mission.

The results reveal that a large majority of respondents (92%) believe that EMI’s services align either completely (8%), very well (49%), or moderately well (35%) with the country’s DRM and climate change adaptation goals. Only 6% chose slightly well, and a negligible proportion selected not at all. This result parallels the level of alignment perceived by external users, as indicated by earlier sections of the survey, suggesting a general consensus on EMI’s strategic relevance. However, it is important to interpret these results with caution. Staff may be predisposed to give favorable assessments of their institution’s performance due to a sense of loyalty or perceived expectation to present the organization positively. Still, the fact that 6% of respondents acknowledged only slight alignment points to a small but important group that may have critical insights into areas where EMI’s services could better align with national priorities.

With regard to confidence in EMI’s impact, 40% of the staff reported being very confident, 34% confident, and 8% slightly confident that the weather and climate services provided have a positive effect on DRM and other critical areas. This generally high level of confidence indicates that EMI staff believe their work contributes meaningfully to national development goals. However, the 18% not expressing strong confidence (those who are only slightly confident or neutral) suggests that there is room for strengthening the link between service delivery and impact assessment. It may also reflect an awareness among some staff of gaps in how services are used or translated into decision-making and action on the ground. When asked about satisfaction with their individual contributions toward EMI’s mission, 35% of staff reported being very satisfied and 48% satisfied, while 13% were neutral and 4% dissatisfied. These results are consistent with the generally positive assessment of institutional alignment and impact. High self-satisfaction levels are encouraging because they reflect staff engagement and a sense of purpose—both of which are important for institutional performance and morale. However, the 13% neutral and 4% dissatisfied respondents, though small, point to the need for a closer look at internal factors that could affect staff motivation and performance.

iii.

Satisfaction with their work at the institution

Three sets of questions were used to assess EMI employees’ satisfaction with (i) the support they receive from the institution to fulfill their duties and responsibilities, (ii) the overall working environment at EMI, and (iii) the likelihood that they would leave for another institution if the opportunity arose. The results show that a surprisingly high proportion (79%) of respondents are either very satisfied (37%) or satisfied (42%) with the support they receive from EMI, with only 8% expressing dissatisfaction. This indicates that the majority of staff feel adequately supported in carrying out their professional responsibilities, which is an important factor in employee productivity and morale. Regarding the working environment, 46% rated it as good and 22% as very good, while 25% said it is not bad, and only 7% characterized it as bad. These figures suggest that most employees perceive EMI’s work environment positively, with only a small minority expressing dissatisfaction. A positive working environment is crucial for fostering employee engagement, collaboration, and retention.

When it comes to the likelihood of leaving EMI for another institution, the results present a more nuanced picture (

Table 9. Responses by EMP technical staff to the question “How likely is it that you would move to another institution if you get the chance?”.

Response Category	Value (%)
Very unlikely	20
Unlikely	29
Neutral	32
Likely	12
Very likely	8

) While 49% reported that they are very unlikely or unlikely to leave, 20% indicated they are likely (12%) or very likely (8%) to leave if the opportunity arises. Additionally, a notable 32% selected the neutral option, suggesting ambivalence about staying or leaving. This finding is significant because it presents a more realistic gauge of employee satisfaction and institutional loyalty. While most staff are satisfied with the support they receive and rate the working environment positively, a substantial portion (41%) are either neutral about or inclined toward leaving EMI. This apparent contradiction between positive perceptions of the working environment and the willingness to leave raises important questions. If only 7% believe the working environment is bad, why would 20% consider leaving, and why is 32% neutral? Several possible explanations can be considered including career advancement opportunities, compensation and benefits, work load and institutional constraints, more attractive external career opportunities.

5.3. Use of Climate Services for Climate Change Adaptation in Ethiopia: Challenges and Opportunities

Ethiopia’s reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods and limited adaptive capacity makes timely, accurate, and actionable climate information crucial for adaptation and risk management. Access to such information and extension services influences farmers’ strategies, including crop diversification and adoption of early-maturing varieties [58]. Recent progress in the availability and use of climate information has strengthened adaptive capacity [38], while initiatives like ACToday have integrated climate services into national planning, enhancing agricultural resilience [37]. Overall, climate services are increasingly vital for supporting adaptation across agriculture, water, health, and disaster risk management.

Climate services are vital for climate change adaptation in Ethiopia’s agriculture, directly supporting food security and resilience. They enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity, promote collaboration, and encourage adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). CSA improves resilience, boosts incomes, and optimizes the use of climate information for coping with changing conditions [82,83]. Integrating climate information into agricultural planning reduces vulnerability and strengthens adaptation. Seasonal forecasts and agro-climate data help farmers adjust planting schedules and crop choices, leading to better harvests [27,56]. Initiatives like Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today for Tomorrow (ACToday) have improved the use of climate information and its integration into disaster risk management [12,37]

Access to reliable climate services and extension support shapes key on-farm adaptation choices, reaffirming the need for targeted, accessible services that address vulnerable populations [56,58]. Strong networks and partnerships across the agricultural sector further enable timely sharing of climate data and best practices, strengthening collective resilience to climate shocks [27].

Ethiopia’s water sector faces increasing stress from climate change, with declining rainfall in areas like the Baro River catchment intensifying competition over scarce resources [84]. Integrating climate services into water management is therefore critical for adaptation, optimizing water use, and strengthening drought preparedness, particularly in agriculture [12]. The CRGE Strategy embeds such measures, while community engagement ensures that indigenous knowledge complements scientific data for locally tailored solutions [85].

Ethiopia’s Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP), developed in 2017, provides a roadmap for building a climate-resilient health system, emphasizing the integration of climate services for early warnings, informed policies, and community resilience. Climate services play a vital role in adaptation, emergency preparedness, and response, while engaging local health workers and communities enhances context-specific strategies and resilience [58,65]. Ethiopia’s health sector has started integrating climate information into planning [66], but gaps persist due to limited technical capacity among health professionals to interpret and apply such data [66]. Building this capacity is crucial for anticipating climate-related health risks and adapting services to protect vulnerable populations [86].

The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) is leading efforts to integrate climate services into disaster risk management (DRM). Its 2023–2030 roadmap for a Multi-Hazard, Impact-Based Early Warning and Early Action System (MH-IB-EWEAS) aims to strengthen anticipatory action and preparedness across sectors [71]. By using climate forecasts and early warning systems, EDRMC supports timely disaster response strategies, as demonstrated during the 2016 floods when early warnings facilitated swift evacuations and resource mobilization, reducing impacts. Given Ethiopia’s high exposure to hazards like droughts, floods, and locusts, the National Disaster Risk Management Policy underscores the role of climate information in risk assessment, early warning, emergency response, and recovery [87]. Integrating climate services enables more accurate forecasting, real-time monitoring, and better planning and resource allocation [37].

Ethiopia is also advancing the integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) with climate change adaptation (CCA), recognizing their interconnected nature. Community initiatives such as soil and water conservation address both DRR and CCA goals while contributing to sustainable development [12,27]. Research and innovation are expanding the role of climate services in these areas, but active community engagement remains critical, particularly in drought-prone regions. Local participation in planning and response enhances the effectiveness of interventions and strengthens resilience to future climate shocks [86].

5.4. Challenges

Despite their growing importance, climate services in Ethiopia face major challenges. Access is limited in rural areas due to language barriers, low literacy, and weak communication infrastructure. Sparse observation networks, data gaps, and poor data sharing undermine reliability, while the lack of localized forecasts reduces uptake among smallholders and impacts food security.

EMI also struggles with limited technical capacity, and local governments often lack the skills to interpret and apply data [29]. At the same time, many local governments and communities lack the skills and resources to interpret and apply climate data in their specific contexts [33]. Communication gaps, overly technical formats, and weak co-production further erode trust and relevance, leaving many decisions reliant on outdated or generalized projections [35].

Institutional coordination in Ethiopia is weak, with fragmented efforts across sectors and levels of government. Siloed operations and overlapping mandates hinder cross-sectoral integration, reducing the effectiveness of climate services for adaptation [38].

The inherent uncertainty in climate projections further complicates the use of these products in climate services. Climate projections for East Africa exhibit considerable uncertainty, especially in future precipitation patterns, both in magnitude and even in sign. Unlike temperature, which consistently shows a warming trend, rainfall projections vary widely depending on the model, time horizon, and spatial scale considered. For instance, while some studies suggest an increase in Kiremt rainfall, others indicate declines in Belg rainfall, with strong seasonal and regional differences [50]. Downscaled climate projections using multiple CMIP6 models further highlight these inconsistencies: some project wetter conditions, while others suggest increased drought risk [42]. This divergence arises from the complex interaction of large-scale drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, ENSO, and regional circulation patterns, all of which influence rainfall in non-linear ways [88]. As a result, while there is agreement on greater rainfall variability and an increased likelihood of extremes, the direction and magnitude of long-term rainfall change remain uncertain, complicating adaptation planning for sectors like agriculture, water, and disaster risk management in Ethiopia and the wider region. Policymakers and practitioners often struggle to translate these uncertain model outputs into actionable decisions.

Limited public awareness and education hinder the use of climate services in Ethiopia. Stronger outreach, education, and engagement are needed to help communities use these services for adaptation [33]. However, current systems in Ethiopia often fall short in engaging stakeholders meaningfully in adaptation planning and implementation [35].

In summary, while climate services have the potential to significantly strengthen Ethiopia’s capacity to adapt to climate change, several challenges must be addressed. These include improving access to localized climate information, building technical and institutional capacity, enhancing coordination and communication, addressing uncertainty, overcoming socio-economic barriers, and raising public awareness. Overcoming these obstacles is essential for realizing the full potential of climate services in supporting effective and equitable climate change adaptation across the country.

5.5. Analysis of Survey Results on the Use of Climate Information for Climate Change Adaptation

Some of the survey questions mentioned earlier are also used to assess the value EMI’s climate services for climate change adaptation in Ethiopia. The survey included a series of questions aimed at assessing users’ understanding and use of EMI’s data and services in the context of climate change adaptation. When asked about the most important function of EMI (Table 2), only 4% of respondents identified climate change projection, and 7% chose climate change adaptation. In contrast, the vast majority (72%) selected EMI’s traditional operational roles: climate prediction (51%), weather forecasting (21%), and observation (21%) as the institute’s primary functions. Similarly, when users were asked about the type of climate data or information they use most frequently, only 4% mentioned climate projections. This limited focus on projections is understandable, given that climate change projection is not currently a core focus area for EMI. EMI has historically concentrated on operational weather forecasting, seasonal prediction, and real-time climate monitoring, rather than long-term climate change modeling and scenario development.

However, interestingly, when respondents were asked to rate how well EMI has discharged its responsibilities related to climate change, specifically in areas like climate change assessments, trend analysis, projections, and impact studies, 80% rated EMI’s performance as either very well (33%) or well (47%). This relatively high satisfaction level may suggest that, although users are not heavily engaged with EMI’s climate projections directly, they still perceive EMI as contributing effectively to climate change-related services. It is possible that users are utilizing other types of climate information—such as historical trends, seasonal outlooks, and monitoring data—for climate change adaptation activities, rather than relying solely on formal climate projections. Supporting this interpretation, when asked how their institutions use climate data or information, 25% of respondents identified planning as a primary use, and 24% indicated risk assessment. Both of these applications are critical components of climate change adaptation. Climate risk assessments, for example, often rely on historical climate trends and current variability to identify vulnerabilities, while planning processes can incorporate seasonal forecasts and observed changes to inform adaptation strategies.

In summary, there appears to be some disconnect between user expectations and EMI’s current service offerings related to climate change projections. While direct use of climate projections remains low among EMI’s users, the institute is seen as playing a positive role in supporting climate change-related activities. By strategically positioning its existing services for adaptation and considering gradual expansion into climate change projections and impacts, EMI can better align its services with the evolving needs of its users and the country’s climate adaptation agenda. As demand for climate change services grows, EMI could gradually expand its portfolio to include climate change impact assessments, vulnerability mapping, and simplified climate projections tailored to sectors like agriculture, water resources, and health.

6. Conclusions

Ethiopia is among the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world due to its reliance on rainfed agriculture, diverse geography, and limited adaptive capacity. Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves, which have severely impacted key sectors such as agriculture, water resources, health, and disaster risk management. Ethiopia has experienced more than 30 major droughts since 1980, with the 2020–2022 drought causing widespread livestock loss and displacement. Analyses of historical climate data show that Ethiopia has experienced rising temperatures and highly variable rainfall patterns, with projections indicating continued warming and regionally uneven changes in precipitation. These climatic changes are already having serious impacts on agricultural productivity, water availability, and human health, threatening food security, energy supply, and public well-being.

In response, Ethiopia has adopted several national strategies to address these challenges, including the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Central to the success of these strategies is the availability and use of climate services. The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), through initiatives such as ENACTS and the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS), has expanded access to climate data, forecasts, and advisories.

This study explored the role of climate services in supporting climate change adaptation efforts in Ethiopia by combining reviews of relevant government documents on policy and planning, peer-reviewed papers, and survey results from users and providers of climate information. The reviews have shown that climate services have significant potential in supporting adaptation in agriculture (e.g., advising on planting dates and crop choices), water management (e.g., forecasting streamflow), health (e.g., early warnings for disease outbreaks), and disaster risk reduction (e.g., enabling early action). Survey results indicate that climate services are widely regarded as critical for informing policy, planning, and operational decisions, especially seasonal forecasts for agriculture and disaster risk management. However, significant gaps remain in technical capacity, data infrastructure, poor infrastructure, inadequate data coverage, weak institutional coordination, and a lack of localized, user-friendly information—especially for rural communities. Moreover, the inherent uncertainties in climate change projections can hinder the use of climate information in decision-making.

In conclusion, climate services play a pivotal role in enabling Ethiopia to manage climate risks and implement effective adaptation strategies. This study highlights the substantial progress made by Ethiopia in developing and delivering climate information through EMI and its partners. Nonetheless, challenges such as limited technical and human resources, infrastructural gaps, difficulties in reaching rural communities, and fragmented institutional coordination hinder the full realization of the potential of climate services.

To strengthen the value of climate services in supporting adaptation, the study recommends:

• Investing in technical capacity and modern infrastructure, including automatic weather stations, high-performance computing, and improved data dissemination systems.
• Promoting co-production of climate information by fostering closer collaboration between providers and users to ensure climate services are demand-driven and actionable.
• Enhancing integration of climate services into national and subnational planning, ensuring that climate information informs policies and plans across sectors.
• Strengthening institutional coordination to reduce duplication of efforts and enhance the collective impact of climate services on adaptation outcomes.
• Improving outreach and accessibility, particularly for rural and vulnerable communities, through tailored communication strategies and partnerships with extension services and communities.

The findings and recommendations of this study offer valuable insights not only for Ethiopia but also for other African countries facing similar climate vulnerabilities, capacity constraints, and institutional challenges. Strengthened climate services are essential for building resilient societies and achieving sustainable development in a changing climate.

While this study provides valuable insights into the role of climate services in supporting climate change adaptation in Ethiopia, several limitations should be acknowledged. First, the survey data relied on responses from policymakers, practitioners, and staff of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) who were largely accessed during climate-focused events. As such, participants may not fully represent the broader population of users. This could bias the findings toward more informed or engaged stakeholders. Second, the study’s climate trend and projection analyses were based on a limited selection of CMIP6 models. Although chosen for representativeness and feasibility, this restriction means that the full range of uncertainties in future climate scenarios was not fully captured. Another limitation lies in aggregating national level precipitation into an annual timescale, which masks Ethiopia’s strong regional contrasts in topography and rainfall seasonality. To reduce simulation and projection uncertainties, CMIP6 models should be evaluated at the scale of homogeneous rainfall zones, accounting for seasonal and topographic variations, and selecting the most skillful models for further analysis—while also considering the potential of CMIP7. Third, institutional challenges such as poor infrastructure, weak coordination, and limited technical expertise were identified, but these were not examined through in-depth organizational analysis or case studies.

Future research can address these limitations in several ways. Expanding surveys to include a broader spectrum of end-users would provide a more inclusive understanding of climate service use and barriers. Integrating a larger ensemble of climate models, coupled with finer-scale downscaling, could better capture Ethiopia’s climatic diversity and improve the reliability of local projections. Mixed-methods approaches that combine quantitative surveys with qualitative case studies or participatory assessments would also help illuminate how climate information is interpreted and applied in real-world adaptation decisions. Finally, longitudinal studies tracking the uptake and impacts of climate services over time would provide critical evidence on their effectiveness in building resilience. Co-creation workshops with stakeholders would also be very useful in generating climate information products that could be effectively used in practice.