Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Materials
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Single Land-Use Dynamic Attitude
2.4. Calculation of the Value of Ecosystem Services
2.5. Ecosystem Service Change Index
2.6. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
2.7. CA–Markov Model
3. Results and Analysis
3.1. Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Land-Use Types
3.2. Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of ESV
3.2.1. Characteristics of Changes in the Temporal Dimension of ESV
3.2.2. Characteristics of Changes in ESV Spatial Dimension
3.3. Spatial Correlation Analysis of ESV
3.3.1. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
3.3.2. Cold Hot Spot Analysis
3.4. CA–Markov Model Simulation and Prediction
4. Discussion
4.1. Methods for Valuing Ecosystem Services
4.2. Impacts of Land Use on the Value of Ecosystem Services
4.3. Ecological Conservation and Development in the Study Area
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- Unexploited land, grassland, and watershed are the land-use types that account for more than 85% of the study area. During the study period, the water area showed a continuous growth trend, while grassland, cropland, woodland, and construction land showed a fluctuating growth trend and barren land charted a continuous decline. Among these land types, construction land had the highest increase (291.04%), followed by woodland, whereas grassland had the lowest increase. Only barren land showed a decrease.
- (2)
- The ESV of the study area trended slightly downward from 1990 to 2000 and sharply upward from 2000 to 2010, and then reverted to a slight downward trend from 2010 to 2020. The overall ESV showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total increase of CNY 17.906 billion. The upward trend of watershed areas intensified the most from 2000 to 2010, with ESV increasing by CNY 39.857 billion due mainly to low-value land-use types shifting to high-value land-use types.
- (3)
- In terms of space, the value-added areas of ESV in the study area from 1990 to 2020 are mainly concentrated in the northwest and southern regions of the study area. the loss area of ESV is mainly distributed in the northern part of the study area. Based on the cold and hot spot map of ESV changes in the study area, it can be seen that the ecosystem service value of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains is increasing. According to the CA–Markov model analysis, the grassland, forest land, and water area in the study area will increase from 2020 to 2030. The growth trend of the ecosystem service value of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains is obvious in 2030, and the ecological environment will steadily improve. This is due to the conversion of unused land into grassland and forest land. We also found that the conversion of unused land into grassland has a positive impact on the ecology of the region. In the future, we will continue to research the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains, explore the driving factors of ecosystem service value, and conduct in-depth research on the impact of climate change on the ecosystem service value of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Serial Number | Land-Use Type | Land Type |
---|---|---|
1 | Cropland | Paddy fields, drylands, mountains, hills, plains, sloping land, etc. |
2 | Woodland | Woodlands, open woodlands, shrublands, and other woodlands, etc. |
3 | Grassland | High-coverage grassland, medium-coverage grassland, low-coverage grassland, etc. |
4 | Water | Rivers and canals, lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, ponds, etc. |
5 | Construction land | Urban land, rural settlements, etc. |
6 | Barren land | Sandy land, Gobi, saline land, etc. |
Ecosystem Service Function | Land-Use Type | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cropland | Woodland | Grassland | Water | Construction Land | Barren Land | |
Gas regulation | 940.91 | 6586.37 | 1505.46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Climate regulation | 1674.82 | 5080.92 | 1693.64 | 865.64 | 0 | 0 |
Water conservation | 1129.09 | 6021.83 | 1505.46 | 38,351.50 | 0 | 56.45 |
Soil formation and protection | 2747.46 | 7339.10 | 3669.55 | 18.82 | 0 | 37.64 |
Waste disposal | 3086.19 | 2465.18 | 2465.18 | 34,211.50 | 0 | 18.82 |
Biodiversity conservation | 1336.09 | 6134.74 | 2051.18 | 4685.73 | 0 | 639.82 |
Food production | 1881.82 | 188.18 | 564.55 | 188.18 | 0 | 18.82 |
Raw material production | 188.18 | 4892.73 | 94.09 | 18.82 | 0 | 0 |
Entertainment culture | 18.82 | 2408.73 | 75.27 | 8167.10 | 82.60 | 18.82 |
Total | 13,003.38 | 41,117.78 | 13,624.38 | 86,507.29 | 82.60 | 790.36 |
Land-Use Type | Cropland | Woodland | Grassland | Water | Construction Land | Barren Land | Total | Transfer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cropland | 769.44 | 0 | 119.95 | 1.36 | 2.64 | 2.11 | 895.50 | 126.06 |
Woodland | 0 | 4.33 | 0.75 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0 | 5.48 | 1.15 |
Grassland | 385.81 | 12.70 | 6251.13 | 60.32 | 1594.49 | 10.15 | 8314.59 | 2063.46 |
Water | 4.04 | 0.07 | 25.07 | 1748.17 | 241.77 | 0.36 | 2019.48 | 271.31 |
Construction land | 100.80 | 0.36 | 1929.37 | 364.82 | 29,672.65 | 2.64 | 32,070.65 | 2398.00 |
Barren land | 0.10 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 1.65 | 2.48 | 0.83 |
Total | 1260.19 | 17.46 | 8326.82 | 2174.74 | 31,512.07 | 16.91 | ||
Transfer in | 490.75 | 13.13 | 2075.69 | 426.56 | 1839.42 | 15.26 |
Land-Use Type | Cropland | Woodland | Grassland | Water | Construction Land | Barren Land | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | ESV | 112.43 | 2.12 | 1083.72 | 1644.06 | 0 | 244.11 | 3086.45 |
Proportion | 3.64% | 0.07% | 35.11% | 53.27% | 0% | 7.91% | 100% | |
2000 | ESV | 121.53 | 3.29 | 1047.68 | 1614.50 | 0 | 245.89 | 3032.90 |
Proportion | 4.01% | 0.11% | 34.54% | 53.23% | 0% | 8.11% | 100% | |
2010 | ESV | 145.45 | 4.36 | 1090.76 | 1952.11 | 0.01 | 238.78 | 3431.47 |
Proportion | 4.24% | 0.13% | 31.79% | 56.89% | 0% | 6.96% | 100% | |
2020 | ESV | 158.47 | 6.72 | 1085.42 | 1775.06 | 0.01 | 239.81 | 3265.50 |
Proportion | 4.85% | 0.21% | 33.24% | 54.36% | 0% | 7.34% | 100% | |
ESV changes from 1990 to 2020 | 46.04 | 4.59 | 1.70 | 131.00 | 0.01 | −4.29 | 179.06 | |
ESV change rate from 1990 to 2020 | 40.95% | 216.28% | 0.16% | 7.97% | 587.41% | −1.76% | 5.80% |
Type 1 | Type 2 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Regulation services | Gas regulation | 128.22 | 4.15% | 125.09 | 4.12% | 121.23 | 3.53% | 132.48 | 4.06% |
Climate regulation | 165.91 | 5.38% | 162.45 | 5.36% | 174.40 | 5.08% | 173.93 | 5.33% | |
Water conservation | 876.12 | 28.39% | 860.13 | 28.36% | 1016.28 | 29.62% | 938.75 | 28.75% | |
Waste disposal | 878.90 | 28.48% | 862.96 | 28.45% | 1009.84 | 29.43% | 942.11 | 28.85% | |
Subtotal | 2049.15 | 66.39% | 2010.62 | 66.29% | 2321.75 | 67.66% | 2187.28 | 66.98% | |
Support services | Soil formation and protection | 328.00 | 10.63% | 320.51 | 10.57% | 337.09 | 9.82% | 338.83 | 10.38% |
Biodiversity conservation | 461.69 | 14.96% | 457.21 | 15.07% | 478.85 | 13.95% | 470.98 | 14.42% | |
Subtotal | 789.69 | 25.59% | 777.72 | 25.64% | 815.93 | 23.78% | 809.81 | 24.80% | |
Provision of services | Food production | 70.58 | 2.29% | 70.38 | 2.32% | 76.20 | 2.22% | 77.51 | 2.37% |
Raw material production | 9.72 | 0.31% | 9.74 | 0.32% | 10.58 | 0.31% | 10.97 | 0.34% | |
Subtotal | 80.30 | 2.60% | 80.12 | 2.64% | 86.78 | 2.53% | 88.49 | 20.50% | |
Cultural services | Entertainment culture | 167.30 | 5.42% | 164.44 | 5.42% | 196.48 | 5.73% | 179.93 | 5.51% |
Total | 3086.45 | 3032.90 | 3420.95 | 3265.50 |
Land-Use Type | Cropland | Woodland | Grassland | Water | Construction Land | Barren Land | Total | Transfer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cropland | 896.58 | 52.77 | 182.78 | 18.26 | 37.82 | 71.91 | 1260.12 | 363.54 |
Woodland | 0 | 2.44 | 13.20 | 0.06 | 0 | 1.55 | 17.25 | 14.81 |
Grassland | 256.98 | 195.72 | 6177.14 | 110.21 | 21.11 | 1566.64 | 8327.82 | 2150.67 |
Water | 0.71 | 0.23 | 65.52 | 1548.90 | 0.01 | 560.27 | 2175.68 | 626.74 |
Construction land | 2.27 | 2.98 | 6.89 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 0.19 | 16.79 | 13.68 |
Barren land | 31.99 | 65.21 | 6417.17 | 515.09 | 1.53 | 24,481.08 | 31,512.13 | 7030.99 |
Total | 1188.53 | 319.34 | 12,862.71 | 2193.88 | 60.66 | 26,684.56 | ||
Transfer in | 291.95 | 316.90 | 6685.57 | 644.97 | 60.47 | 2200.57 |
Type 1 | Type 2 | Land-Use Type | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cropland | Woodland | Grassland | Water | Construction Land | Barren Land | Total | ||
Regulation services | Gas regulation | 12.65 | 24.05 | 214.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 251.44 |
Climate regulation | 22.52 | 18.56 | 241.58 | 20.54 | 0 | 0 | 303.19 | |
Water conservation | 15.18 | 21.99 | 214.74 | 909.81 | 0 | 16.74 | 1178.46 | |
Waste disposal | 41.49 | 9.00 | 351.63 | 811.60 | 0 | 5.58 | 1219.30 | |
Subtotal | 91.84 | 73.61 | 1022.68 | 1741.94 | 0 | 22.32 | 2952.38 | |
Support services | Soil formation and protection | 36.94 | 26.80 | 523.42 | 0.45 | 0 | 11.16 | 598.77 |
Biodiversity conservation | 17.96 | 22.40 | 292.58 | 111.16 | 0 | 189.70 | 633.81 | |
Subtotal | 54.90 | 49.21 | 815.99 | 111.61 | 0 | 200.86 | 1232.57 | |
Provision of services | Food production | 25.30 | 0.69 | 80.53 | 4.46 | 0 | 5.58 | 116.56 |
Raw material production | 2.53 | 17.87 | 13.42 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | 34.27 | |
Subtotal | 27.83 | 18.56 | 93.95 | 4.91 | 0 | 5.58 | 150.82 | |
Cultural services | Entertainment culture | 0.25 | 8.80 | 10.74 | 193.75 | 0.06 | 5.58 | 219.17 |
Total | 174.83 | 150.17 | 1943.35 | 2052.21 | 0.06 | 234.34 | 4554.95 |
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Zhang, Z.; Wang, Y.; Tang, H.; Zhu, Z. Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use. Land 2023, 12, 2123. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122123
Zhang Z, Wang Y, Tang H, Zhu Z. Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use. Land. 2023; 12(12):2123. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122123
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Zhichao, Yang Wang, Haisheng Tang, and Zhen Zhu. 2023. "Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use" Land 12, no. 12: 2123. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12122123