Spatiotemporal Distribution of Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin, China and Its Responses to Global Climatic Events
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area, Data, and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Sc-PDSI
2.3.2. EOF and REOF
2.3.3. Response of Droughts to Global Climatic Events
3. Results and Analysis
3.1. Time Scales Analysis
3.2. The Selection of EOF Modes for REOF
3.3. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drought Evolutions by REOF
3.4. Responses of Droughts to Global Climatic Change Events
3.4.1. Teleconnection
3.4.2. Contribution
4. Discussion and Conclusions
- The cumulative variance distributions of the top 10 EOFs of the annual, semi-annual, seasonal, and representative months’ Sc-PDSI variable field in the Xijiang River Basin from December 1960 to November 2015 were all greater than 80%. This indicates that they could be used for REOF’s VARIMAX rotation and could derive more accurate dry/wet conditions.
- At an annual scale, the drought intensity in the Eastern, Western, and Southern Basins exhibited a slight uptrend trend in the past 55 years. Guibei, Yuegui, Southern Guizhong, and Panjiang showed a strong downtrend trend in the past 55 years, which were significantly influenced by the three climatic events, NAO one year earlier, and PDO and NAO in the same year. Herein, the contribution of NAO one year earlier was −0.556.
- The evolution of drought intensity of the first and second half year is similar to that of the annual scale. They were both significantly influenced by NAO one year earlier, but the contributions were−0.419 and 0.597, respectively. Moreover, the droughts in the Northwestern Basin, Yuegui, and Eastern Guibei in the second half year were significantly influenced by PDO in the same year, and its contribution was 0.356.
- The winter drought intensity in Southern Panjiang, and the Eastern and Southern Basins exhibited a downtrend trend in the past 55 years, which were significantly influenced by NAO one year earlier, and the contribution was −0.447.
- The spring drought intensity in the Central and Southeastern Basins were significantly influenced by IOD in the same year, and the contribution was 0.312.
- The summer drought intensity in the Western and Eastern Basins exhibited a slight uptrend trend in the past 55 years. Southern Panjiang, and the Eastern and Southern Basins showed an uptrend trend in the past 55 years, which were significantly influenced by NAO one year earlier, and the contribution was 0.542. The Northwestern Basin, Yuegui, and Eastern Guibei were significantly influenced by PDO in the same year, and the contribution was 0.388.
- The autumn drought intensity in Southern Panjiang, and the Eastern and Southern Basins showed a downtrend trend in the past 55 years, which were significantly influenced by NAO one year earlier, and the contribution was 0.6. The drought in Yuegui, Western Guizhong, and the Northern Basin was significantly influenced by IOD in the same year, and the contribution was −0.289.
- At the representative month’s scale, NAO one year earlier influenced the droughts in Southern Panjiang, and the Eastern and Southern Basins in February (contribution: −0.327), and Northern Guibei, and Southern Guizhong (contribution: −0.43) and the Central and Eastern Basins (contribution: 0.385) in August. NAO in the same year influenced the droughts in Western Panjiang and the Central Basin in May (contribution: −0.336), as well as the Southern Panjiang and the Central Basin in August (contribution: −0.302). IOD in the same year influenced the droughts in November in Guizhong and the Eastern Basin in November, and its contribution was −0.336.
- The correlations and multiple stepwise regressions between RPCs and the climatic indices shown here were not simple teleconnections between droughts in the Xijiang River Basin and global climatic events. Generally, NAO one year earlier was the dominant factor. Others, such as IOD and PDO, at the same time influenced some droughts in some regions.
- Generally, station numbers were not sufficient for the study area. However, this problem could not be solved in recent times. In future studies, various methods of data interpolation, such as spatial interpolation, temporal interpolation, and similarity interpolation should be used for constructing the integrity and correctness of the meteorological data.
- The occurrence of droughts is somewhat unique, due to the rich source of water vapor from the oceans near the Basin. In addition, the distribution of droughts in the study area exhibited obvious spatiotemporal differences. In future research, it will also be essential to investigate the influence of local weather, climate, and landforms, such as Karst or hills, on drought occurrence and evolution from a smaller regional scale.
- The relationship between droughts in the Xijiang River Basin and global climatic events is very complex. Due to the close distance between the Basin and the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the droughts are easily influenced by the climatic events of the two oceans. However, the results in this paper have demonstrated that the influences of distant Atlantic climatic events must be considered. However, since the precise physical mechanisms are not yet thoroughly elucidated, this can constitute a major topic of future work.
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Classifications | Index Value |
---|---|
Extreme wetness | Sc-PDSI ≥ 4.0 |
Very wetness | 4.0 > Sc-PDSI ≥ 3.0 |
Moderate wetness | 3.0 > Sc-PDSI ≥ 2.0 |
Slight wetness | 2.0 > Sc-PDSI ≥ 1.0 |
Normal | 1.0 > Sc-PDSI > −1.0 |
Mild drought | −1.0 ≥ Sc-PDSI > −2.0 |
Moderate drought | −2.0 ≥ Sc-PDSI > −3.0 |
Severe drought | −3.0 ≥ Sc-PDSI > −4.0 |
Extreme drought | −4.0 ≥ Sc-PDSI |
Time Scales | Indices | RPC1 | RPC2 | RPC3 | RPC4 | RPC5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANN | PDO_0 | 0.035 | −0.346 | −0.018 | 0.000 | 0.076 |
NAO_0 | 0.230 | −0.407 | 0.219 | −0.125 | −0.209 | |
NAO_1 | 0.109 | −0.558 | 0.212 | −0.073 | −0.094 | |
D–M | PDO_0 | −0.079 | −0.271 | −0.001 | 0.116 | 0.144 |
NAO_0 | 0.225 | −0.286 | 0.104 | 0.050 | 0.080 | |
NAO_1 | 0.078 | −0.419 | 0.129 | 0.041 | 0.051 | |
J–N | PDO_0 | −0.019 | 0.301 | 0.357 | −0.009 | 0.105 |
PDO_1 | −0.076 | 0.224 | 0.353 | 0.031 | 0.067 | |
NAO_0 | 0.013 | 0.411 | 0.038 | 0.093 | 0.245 | |
NAO_1 | −0.050 | 0.607 | 0.141 | 0.052 | 0.163 | |
DJF | NAO_0 | 0.176 | −0.301 | −0.015 | −0.138 | 0.086 |
NAO_1 | 0.090 | −0.447 | −0.019 | −0.036 | 0.072 | |
MAM | IOD_0 | −0.019 | 0.118 | −0.035 | −0.101 | 0.313 |
JJA | PDO_0 | 0.018 | 0.146 | 0.389 | 0.028 | −0.087 |
PDO_1 | −0.015 | 0.113 | 0.345 | −0.050 | −0.178 | |
NAO_0 | 0.194 | 0.298 | −0.041 | −0.079 | 0.221 | |
NAO_1 | 0.036 | 0.549 | 0.130 | 0.013 | 0.109 | |
SON | PDO_0 | −0.085 | 0.358 | 0.230 | 0.130 | −0.131 |
NAO_0 | −0.255 | 0.502 | −0.014 | 0.194 | −0.002 | |
NAO_1 | −0.263 | 0.612 | 0.040 | 0.154 | 0.011 | |
IOD_0 | −0.055 | 0.022 | 0.249 | −0.289 | 0.196 | |
Feb | NAO_1 | 0.075 | −0.328 | 0.006 | 0.062 | −0.008 |
May | NAO_0 | 0.155 | −0.032 | −0.337 | 0.143 | 0.105 |
Aug | NAO_0 | 0.084 | −0.308 | −0.360 | 0.270 | −0.249 |
NAO_1 | 0.012 | −0.217 | −0.437 | 0.391 | −0.069 | |
Nov | IOD_0 | −0.052 | 0.142 | −0.101 | −0.170 | −0.336 |
Time Scales | RPCs | Entered Variables | Standardized Coefficients |
---|---|---|---|
ANN | RPC2 | NAO_1 | −0.556 |
D–M | RPC2 | NAO_1 | −0.419 |
J–N | RPC2 | NAO_1 | 0.597 |
J–N | RPC3 | PDO_0 | 0.356 |
DJF | RPC2 | NAO_1 | −0.447 |
MAM | RPC5 | IOD_0 | 0.312 |
JJA | RPC2 | NAO_1 | 0.542 |
JJA | RPC3 | PDO_0 | 0.388 |
SON | RPC2 | NAO_1 | 0.6 |
SON | RPC4 | IOD_0 | −0.289 |
February | RPC2 | NAO_1 | −0.327 |
May | RPC3 | NAO_0 | −0.336 |
August | RPC2 | NAO_0 | −0.302 |
August | RPC3 | NAO_1 | −0.43 |
August | RPC4 | NAO_1 | 0.385 |
November | RPC5 | IOD_0 | −0.336 |
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Qiu, J.; Wang, Y.; Xiao, J. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin, China and Its Responses to Global Climatic Events. Water 2017, 9, 265. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9040265
Qiu J, Wang Y, Xiao J. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin, China and Its Responses to Global Climatic Events. Water. 2017; 9(4):265. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9040265
Chicago/Turabian StyleQiu, Jizhong, Yunpeng Wang, and Jie Xiao. 2017. "Spatiotemporal Distribution of Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin, China and Its Responses to Global Climatic Events" Water 9, no. 4: 265. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9040265