Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Description of the Study Area
2.2. Data and Model Setup
2.2.1. The SWAT Hydrological Model
2.2.2. Model Inputs
2.2.3. Calibration, Validation and Evaluation of the Model
Parameter | Calibration | Validation |
---|---|---|
R2 | 0.80 | 0.84 |
PBIAS | −1.8 | −3.3 |
NSE | 0.80 | 0.83 |
Observed mean and range (m3 s−1) | 0.18 (0.02–1.42) | 0.24 (0.02–1.20) |
2.3. Scenarios of Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration Changes
Name | Institute | GCM | RCM | Time Period |
---|---|---|---|---|
C4IRCA3 | C4I (1) | HadCM3Q16 | RCA3 | 1951–2099 |
CNRM/RM5.1 | CNRM (2) | ARPEGE RM5.1 | Aladin | 1950–2100 |
DMI/ARPEGE | DMI (3) | ARPEGE | HIRHAM | 1951–2100 |
DMI/BCM DMI | DMI (3) | BCM | DMI-HIRHAM5 | 1961–2098 |
DMI/ECHAM5-r3 | DMI (3) | ECHAM5-r3 | DMI-HIRHAM5 | 1951–2099 |
ETHZ/CLM | ETHZ (4) | HadCM3Q0 | CLM | 1951–2099 |
ICTP/RegCM3 | ICTP (5) | ECHAM5-r3 | RegCM3 | 1951–2100 |
KNMI/RACMO2 | KNMI (6) | ECHAM5-r3 | RACMO | 1950–2100 |
MPIM/REMO | MPI (7) | ECHAM5-r3 | REMO | 1951–2100 |
SMHI/BCM | SMHI (8) | BCM | RCA | 1961–2100 |
SMHI/ECHAM5-r3 | SMHI (8) | ECHAM5-r3 | RCA | 1951–2100 |
SMHI/HadCM3Q3 | SMHI (8) | HadCM3Q3 | RCA | 1951–2100 |
Scenario | Temperature (°C) | Rainfall (%) | CO2 Concentration (ppm) |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 1.1 (mean 2031–2060) | 0 | 330 |
2 | 1.7 (maximum 2031–2060) | 0 | 330 |
3 | 2.2 (mean 2069–2098) | 0 | 330 |
4 | 3.9 (maximum 2069–2098) | 0 | 330 |
5 | 0 | −6 (mean 2031–2060) | 330 |
6 | 0 | −14 (maximum 2031–2060) | 330 |
7 | 0 | −15 (mean 2069–2098) | 330 |
8 | 0 | −27 (maximum 2069–2098) | 330 |
9 | 0 | 0 | 550 |
10 | 0 | 0 | 660 |
11 | 1.1 | −6 | 550 |
12 | 1.7 | −14 | 550 |
13 | 2.2 | −15 | 660 |
14 | 3.9 | −27 | 660 |
15 | 1.1 | −6 | 330 |
16 | 2.2 | −15 | 330 |
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Vulnerability of Streamflow to Change in Temperature, Rainfall or CO2 Concentration
3.2. Vulnerability of Streamflow to Simultaneous Changes in Climate Parameters
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Arias, R.; Rodríguez-Blanco, M.L.; Taboada-Castro, M.M.; Nunes, J.P.; Keizer, J.J.; Taboada-Castro, M.T. Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain. Water 2014, 6, 3049-3067. https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103049
Arias R, Rodríguez-Blanco ML, Taboada-Castro MM, Nunes JP, Keizer JJ, Taboada-Castro MT. Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain. Water. 2014; 6(10):3049-3067. https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103049
Chicago/Turabian StyleArias, Ricardo, M. Luz Rodríguez-Blanco, M. Mercedes Taboada-Castro, Joao Pedro Nunes, Jan Jacob Keizer, and M. Teresa Taboada-Castro. 2014. "Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain" Water 6, no. 10: 3049-3067. https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103049