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Open AccessArticle

Sensitivity of Surface Runoff to Drought and Climate Change: Application for Shared River Basins

1
School of Computing, Science and Engineering, The University of Salford, Salford, Greater Manchester M5 4WT, UK
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Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, Athens 15780, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2014, 6(10), 3033-3048; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103033
Received: 5 August 2014 / Revised: 8 September 2014 / Accepted: 30 September 2014 / Published: 13 October 2014
This study quantifies the sensitivity of surface runoff to drought and climate change in the Diyala watershed shared between Iraq and Iran. This was achieved through a combined use of a wide range of changes in the amount of precipitation (a decline between 0% and −40%) and in the potential evapotranspiration rate (an increase between 0% and +30%). The Medbasin-monthly rainfall-runoff model (Medbasin-M) was used for runoff simulation. The model was calibrated for twelve hydrologic years (1962−1973), and the simulation results were validated with the observed annual runoff for nine water years (1974−1982). For the calibration period, the correlation coefficient (r), the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the index of agreement (IoA) were 0.893, 2.117, 1.733 and 0.852, respectively. The corresponding values for validation were 0.762, 1.250, 1.093 and 0.863, in this order. The Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were analysed using DrinC software. Three nomographs were introduced to quantify the projected reductions in the annual runoff and the anticipated RDI and SDI values, respectively. The proposed methodology offers a simple, powerful and generic approach for predicting the rate of change (%) in annual runoff under climate change scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate alteration; transboundary watershed; river flow; Medbasin model; reconnaissance drought index; streamflow drought index; nomograph; water management; soil storage capacity; runoff curve number climate alteration; transboundary watershed; river flow; Medbasin model; reconnaissance drought index; streamflow drought index; nomograph; water management; soil storage capacity; runoff curve number
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Al-Faraj, F.A.M.; Scholz, M.; Tigkas, D. Sensitivity of Surface Runoff to Drought and Climate Change: Application for Shared River Basins. Water 2014, 6, 3033-3048.

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