Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin Based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Dataset and Monitoring Data
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Source
2.2.1. Historically Measured Climate Data
2.2.2. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Dataset
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Extreme Precipitation Index
2.3.2. RclimDex Model
2.3.3. Taylor Diagram
2.3.4. Sen+Mann–Kendall Trend Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Taylor Diagram Climate Model Evaluation
3.2. Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Indices in the Huaihe River Basin in the Historical Period
3.2.1. Temporal Variability of the Extreme Precipitation Index in the Huaihe River Basin in the Historical Period
3.2.2. Spatial Distribution of the Extreme Precipitation Index in the Huaihe River Basin in the Historical Period
3.3. Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Index in the Huaihe River Basin in the Future
3.3.1. Distributions of Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Indices in the Huaihe River Basin in the Future Period
3.3.2. Spatial Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Indices in the Huaihe River Basin in the Future Period
4. Discussion
4.1. Model Evaluation and Historical Analysis
4.2. Spatial Variation and Regional Disparities
4.3. Future Projections and Implications
4.4. Agricultural Production and Flood Safety
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Number | Model | Institution | Country | Resolution |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ACCESS-CM2 | ACCESS | Australia | 0.25° × 0.25° |
2 | ACCESS-ESM1-5 | ACCESS | Australia | 0.25° × 0.25° |
3 | BCC-CSM2-MR | BBC | China | 0.25° × 0.25° |
4 | CMCC-CM2-SR5 | CMCC | Italy | 0.25° × 0.25° |
5 | CMCC-ESM2 | CMCC | Italy | 0.25° × 0.25° |
6 | CanESM5 | CCCMA | Canada | 0.25° × 0.25° |
7 | MIROC6 | MIROC | Japan | 0.25° × 0.25° |
8 | MPI-ESM1-2-HR | MPI | Germany | 0.25° × 0.25° |
9 | MPI-ESM1-2-LR | MPI | Germany | 0.25° × 0.25° |
10 | MRI-ESM2-0 | MRI | Japan | 0.25° × 0.25° |
11 | NorESM2-LM | NCC | Norway | 0.25° × 0.25° |
12 | NorESM2-MM | NCC | Norway | 0.25° × 0.25° |
13 | TaiESM1 | RCEC | China | 0.25° × 0.25° |
Index | Abbreviation | Definition | Unit |
---|---|---|---|
Moderate rainy days | R10 | Number of days with daily precipitation ≥ 10 mm | d |
Total annual precipitation | PRCPTOT | Cumulative precipitation with daily precipitation ≥ 1 mm | mm |
Heavy precipitation | R95p | Annual cumulative precipitation with daily precipitation > 95% quantile | mm |
Very heavy precipitation | R99p | Annual cumulative precipitation with daily precipitation > 99% quantile | mm |
Maximum 1-day precipitation | RX1day | Maximum 1-day precipitation per month | mm |
Consecutive dry days | CDD | The maximum continuous number of days with daily precipitation < 1 mm | d |
Consecutive wet days | CWD | The maximum continuous number of days with daily precipitation > 1 mm | d |
Precipitation intensity | SDII | The ratio of total annual precipitation to the number of wet days |
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Tong, M.; Li, L.; Li, Z.; Tian, Z. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin Based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Dataset and Monitoring Data. Water 2023, 15, 3805. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213805
Tong M, Li L, Li Z, Tian Z. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin Based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Dataset and Monitoring Data. Water. 2023; 15(21):3805. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213805
Chicago/Turabian StyleTong, Min, Leilei Li, Zhi Li, and Zhihui Tian. 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin Based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Dataset and Monitoring Data" Water 15, no. 21: 3805. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213805