Revelation and Projection of Historic and Future Precipitation Characteristics in the Haihe River Basin, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Datasets in This Study
2.3. Methodology
2.3.1. Extreme Precipitation Indexes
2.3.2. Evaluation Indicators of Precipitation Performance
2.3.3. The Once-in-a-Century Precipitation Amount
2.3.4. Cross-Wavelet Transforms
3. Results
3.1. Evaluating the Precipitation Performance of CMIP6 Models
3.1.1. Evaluating the Performance of Monthly Precipitation
3.1.2. Evaluating the Performance of Extreme Precipitation
3.2. Precipitation Change Characteristics
3.2.1. Precipitation Change Trend
3.2.2. Degree of Contribution of Extreme Precipitation
3.3. Periodicity of Precipitation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Number | Code | Model | Country | Number of Grid Points |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | A | ACCESS-CM2 | Australia | 192 × 144 |
2 | B | ACCESS-ESM1-5 | Australia | 192 × 145 |
3 | C | BCC-CSM2-MR | China | 320 × 160 |
4 | D | CanESM5 | Canada | 128 × 64 |
5 | E | EC-Earth3 | Ireland | 512 × 256 |
6 | F | EC-Earth3-Veg | Ireland | 512 × 256 |
7 | G | GFDL-CM4 | USA | 288 × 180 |
8 | H | GFDL-ESM4 | USA | 288 × 180 |
9 | I | INM-CM4-8 | Russia | 180 × 120 |
10 | J | INM-CM5-0 | Russia | 180 × 120 |
11 | K | KACE-1-0-G | Korea | 192 × 96 |
12 | L | KIOST-ESM | Korea | 192 × 144 |
13 | M | MIROC6 | Japan | 256 × 128 |
14 | N | MME | ||
15 | O | MPI-ESM1-2-HR | Germany | 384 × 192 |
16 | P | MPI-ESM1-2-LR | Germany | 192 × 96 |
17 | Q | MRI-ESM2-0 | Japan | 320 × 160 |
18 | R | NESM3 | China | 192 × 96 |
19 | S | NorESM2-LM | Norway | 144 × 96 |
20 | T | NorESM2-MM | Norway | 288 × 192 |
Extreme Precipitation Index | Explanation | Unit |
---|---|---|
PRCPTOT | Annual summed precipitation (more than 1 mm) | mm |
R10mm | Daily precipitation of more than 10 cm for the same number of days in the year | day |
R20mm | Daily precipitation of more than 20 cm for the same number of days in the year | day |
R95p | The total daily precipitation of more than the 95th daily precipitation percentile annually | mm |
R99p | The total daily precipitation of more than the 99th daily precipitation percentile annually | mm |
Rx1day | The maximum total precipitation in one consecutive day annually | mm |
Rx5day | The maximum total precipitation in five consecutive days annually | mm |
SDII | Mean precipitation amount per wet day | mm/day |
Model | PRCPTOT | R10mm | R20mm | R95p | R99p | Rx1day | Rx5day | SDII |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACCESS-CM2 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 15 |
ACCESS-ESM1-5 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 10 |
BCC-CSM2-MR | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
CanESM5 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 16 |
EC-Earth3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 5 |
EC-Earth3-Veg | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 1 |
GFDL-CM4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 8 |
GFDL-ESM4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
INM-CM4-8 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 7 |
INM-CM5-0 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
KACE-1-0-G | 8 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
KIOST-ESM | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 2 |
MIROC6 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
MME | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 11 |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | 9 | 13 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 18 |
MPI-ESM1-2-LR | 16 | 19 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 12 |
MRI-ESM2-0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
NESM3 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 20 |
NorESM2-LM | 14 | 14 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 8 | 14 |
NorESM2-MM | 13 | 11 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 13 |
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Huo, L.; Sha, J.; Wang, B.; Li, G.; Ma, Q.; Ding, Y. Revelation and Projection of Historic and Future Precipitation Characteristics in the Haihe River Basin, China. Water 2023, 15, 3245. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183245
Huo L, Sha J, Wang B, Li G, Ma Q, Ding Y. Revelation and Projection of Historic and Future Precipitation Characteristics in the Haihe River Basin, China. Water. 2023; 15(18):3245. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183245
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuo, Litao, Jinxia Sha, Boxin Wang, Guangzhi Li, Qingqing Ma, and Yibo Ding. 2023. "Revelation and Projection of Historic and Future Precipitation Characteristics in the Haihe River Basin, China" Water 15, no. 18: 3245. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183245