Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation in China’s Pearl River Basin during 1951–2015
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.2.1. APHRODITE Data
2.2.2. Meteorological Station Data
2.2.3. Other Reanalysis Datasets
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Precipitation Indices
2.3.2. Mann–Kendall Trend Test
2.3.3. Sen’s Slope Method
3. Results
3.1. Temporal Trends
3.1.1. Annual Trends
3.1.2. Seasonal Trends
3.2. Spatial Patterns
3.2.1. Annual Distributions
3.2.2. Seasonal Distributions
3.3. The M–K Test for the Spatiotemporal Trends
4. Discussion
4.1. Uncertainty Analysis
4.2. Precipitation Changes between 2016 and 2022
4.3. Possible Causes of Precipitation Changes
4.4. Correlation between Runoff and Precipitation
4.5. The Impact of Precipitation Changes
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- At the temporal scale, the annual PRCPTOT showed a weak increasing trend. PD, R95D, and CWD decreased, but SDII, R95P, and RX1day showed an increasing trend, leading to the increased short-term flood risk. The seasonal PRCPTOT showed an increase in summer and winter and a decrease in spring and autumn, while R95P and SDII showed an increasing trend in all seasons, and the precipitation tended to be concentrated in spring and autumn.
- (2)
- At the spatial scale, the interannual variation of PRCPTOT increased from west to east. The distribution of SDII, R95P, and RX1day is spatially similar: the high value of R95D is located in the middle and lower reaches of the XRB, and the CWD increased from north to south. The spatial distributions of seasonal PRCPTOT, SDII, and R95P were also similar, showing an increase from west to east in spring and winter, and gradually increasing from north to south in summer, revealing that the BRB and the DRB have higher flood risks.
- (3)
- The M–K test results showed that the upper reaches of the XRB have become drier, especially in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. The PRD has a higher flood risk. The joint changes in EPIs have revealed the higher occurrence of extreme weather events in the PRB.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Index | Indicator Name | Definition | Units |
---|---|---|---|
PRCPTOT | Wet day precipitation | Total precipitation from days ≥1 mm in the period | mm |
SDII | Simple daily intensity index | Mean precipitation amount on wet days in the period | mm/d |
R95D | Number of very wet days | The number of days when precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of daily precipitation in the period | d |
R95P | Very wet day precipitation | The sum of precipitation on days when precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of daily precipitation in the period | mm |
RX1 day | Max 1-day precipitation | Maximum 1-day precipitation of wet days in the period | mm |
CWD | Consecutive wet days | Maximum number of consecutive wet days in the period | d |
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Cai, S.; Niu, K.; Mu, X.; Yang, X.; Pirotti, F. Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation in China’s Pearl River Basin during 1951–2015. Water 2023, 15, 2634. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142634
Cai S, Niu K, Mu X, Yang X, Pirotti F. Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation in China’s Pearl River Basin during 1951–2015. Water. 2023; 15(14):2634. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142634
Chicago/Turabian StyleCai, Shirong, Kunlong Niu, Xiaolin Mu, Xiankun Yang, and Francesco Pirotti. 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation in China’s Pearl River Basin during 1951–2015" Water 15, no. 14: 2634. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142634