Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Case Study and Numerical Model
2.1. Model Set Up
2.2. Hydrodynamic Model
2.2.1. Roughness Coefficient
2.2.2. Levee Breaches
3. Uncertainty Assessment Methodology
3.1. Uncertainty Quantification
3.1.1. Flood Inundation Scenarios
3.1.2. Uncertain Parameter Characterization
- Roughness coefficient quantification:
- Dike breach controlling coefficient quantification:
3.2. Uncertainty Propagation
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis
3.3.1. Permutation Feature Importance
3.3.2. Borgonovo Sensitivity Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Global Statistical Analysis
4.1.1. Uncertainty Propagation
4.1.2. Sensitivity Analysis
4.2. Local Statistical Analysis
4.2.1. Uncertainty Propagation
4.2.2. Sensitivity Analysis
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions and Perspectives
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Land Cover Class | Variation Interval (m1/3s−1) | Probability Distribution |
---|---|---|
Areas with dense urbanization | [5, 8] | Uniform |
Areas with low urbanization | [8, 10] | |
Areas of shrubs, undergrowth | [8, 12] | |
Low-height agricultural areas | [10, 15] | |
High-height agricultural areas | [15, 20] |
Name | (m NGF N) | (m) | (m) | (m) | Dike Material |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fusible du déversoir | 120.80 | [−0.25, 0.3] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 850] | clay-dominated |
Les ormes | 119.72 | [0.05, 0.6] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | sandy-loamy |
Embouchure de la Sange | 118.82 | [0.05, 0.6] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | sandy-loamy |
Saint-Père | 116.66 | [0.05, 0.6] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | clay-dominated |
Prouteaux | 115.60 | [−0.25, 0.3] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | sandy-loamy |
Bouteille | 114.46 | [−0.25, 0.3] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | sandy-loamy |
Les Boutrons | 112.08 | [0.05, 0.6] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | sandy-loamy |
Sigloy | 111.54 | [0.05, 0.6] | [0.3, 1.5] | [50, 950] | sandy-loamy |
Control Points | Sully-Sur-Loire | Les Places | Les Boutrons | Le Mesnil |
---|---|---|---|---|
100-years flood scenario | ||||
200-years flood scenario | ||||
500-years flood scenario | ||||
1000-years flood scenario |
Methods | Borgonovo Indices | Permutation Importance |
---|---|---|
100-years flood scenario | Saint-Père overtopping level: 0.22 ± 0.011 | Fusible du déversoir overtopping level: 0.73 ± 0.028 |
Fusible du déversoir overtopping level: 0.20 ± 0.011 | Saint-Père overtopping level: 0.72 ± 0.024 | |
PK403-414: 0.12 ± 7.2 × 10−3 | PK403-414: 0.33 ± 0.02 | |
Saint-Père breach width: 0.10 ± 4.2 × 10−3 | PK414-420: 0.099 ± 6 × 10−3 | |
Fusible du déversoir breach width: 0.091 ± 3.9 × 10−3 | Saint-Père breach width: 0.018 ± 1.4 × 10−3 | |
FR-64977: 0.09 ± 4.3 × 10−3 | FR-64977: 0.0083 ± 6.9 × 10−4 | |
200-years flood scenario | Saint-Père breach width: 0.22 ± 9.9 × 10−3 | Saint-Père overtopping level: 0.91 ± 0.039 |
Saint-Père overtopping level: 0.21 ± 0.011 | PK403-414: 0.57 ± 0.028 | |
PK403-414: 0.13 ± 8.29 × 10−3 | Saint-Père breach width: 0.24 ± 9.7 × 10−3 | |
Prouteaux overtopping level: 0.097 ± 6 × 10−3 | FR-64977: 0.081 ± 5.6 × 10−3 | |
FR-64977: 0.083 ± 7.8 × 10−3 | Fusible du déversoir breach width: 0.045 ± 4 × 10−3 | |
Fusible du déversoir breach width: 0.078 ± 7 × 10−3 | Prouteaux overtopping level: 0.01 ± 1 × 10−3 | |
500-years flood scenario | Saint-Père breach width: 0.32 ± 0.011 | Saint-Père breach width: 1.12 ± 0.042 |
FR-65537: 0.1 ± 0.01 | FR-65537: 0.30 ± 0.018 | |
Les Ormes overtopping level: 0.085 ± 7.02 × 10−3 | Prouteaux overtopping level: 0.14 ± 0.011 | |
Prouteaux overtopping level: 0.081 ± 9.1 × 10−3 | Les Ormes overtopping level: 0.12 ± 0.01 | |
PK403-414: 0.071 ± 7.65 × 10−3 | PK403-414: 0.048 ± 4.4 × 10−3 | |
Les Ormes breach width: 0.058 ± 9 × 10−3 | Prouteaux breach width: 0.047 ± 5.8 × 10−3 | |
1000-years flood scenario | FR-65537: 0.22 ± 0.014 | FR-65537: 0.68 ± 0.028 |
Saint-Père breach width: 0.19 ± 9.84 × 10−3 | Saint-Père breach width: 0.63 ± 0.023 | |
Prouteaux overtopping level: 0.10 ± 0.012 | Prouteaux overtopping level: 0.23 ± 0.011 | |
PK403-414: 0.098 ± 0.011 | PK403-414: 0.14 ± 6.2 × 10−3 | |
Prouteaux breach width: 0.062 ± 9.55 × 10−3 | Prouteaux breach width: 0.10 ± 8.4 × 10−3 | |
Les Ormes breach width: 0.054 ± 7.1 × 10−3 | Les Ormes breach width: 0.08 ± 8.9 × 10−3 |
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Goeury, C.; Bacchi, V.; Zaoui, F.; Bacchi, S.; Pavan, S.; El kadi Abderrezzak, K. Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water 2022, 14, 3815. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233815
Goeury C, Bacchi V, Zaoui F, Bacchi S, Pavan S, El kadi Abderrezzak K. Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water. 2022; 14(23):3815. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233815
Chicago/Turabian StyleGoeury, Cédric, Vito Bacchi, Fabrice Zaoui, Sophie Bacchi, Sara Pavan, and Kamal El kadi Abderrezzak. 2022. "Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching" Water 14, no. 23: 3815. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233815
APA StyleGoeury, C., Bacchi, V., Zaoui, F., Bacchi, S., Pavan, S., & El kadi Abderrezzak, K. (2022). Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water, 14(23), 3815. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233815