Hydrological Response of the Wami&ndash;Ruvu Basin to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes and Its Impacts for the Future

Ngondo, Jamila; Mango, Joseph; Nobert, Joel; Dubi, Alfonse; Li, Xiang; Cheng, Heqin

doi:10.3390/w14020184

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Hydrological Response of the Wami–Ruvu Basin to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes and Its Impacts for the Future

^1,2

^3,4

⁵,

^3,*,

⁴

and

Heqin Cheng

^1,*

State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 500 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200241, China

Department of Geography and Economics, Dar es Salaam University College of Education, Dar es Salaam P.O. Box 2329, Tanzania

Department of Transportation and Geotechnical Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam P.O. Box 35131, Tanzania

⁴

Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

⁵

Department of Water Resources Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam P.O. Box 35131, Tanzania

Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editor: Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan

Water 2022, 14(2), 184; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020184

Received: 11 December 2021 / Revised: 31 December 2021 / Accepted: 6 January 2022 / Published: 10 January 2022

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources Management and Social Issues)

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Abstract

The evaluation of the hydrological responses of river basins to land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes is crucial for sustaining water resources. We assessed the impact of LULC changes (1990–2018) on three hydrological components (water yield (WYLD), evapotranspiration (ET), and sediment yield (SYLD)) of the Wami–Ruvu Basin (WRB) in Tanzania, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The 1990 LULC imagery was used for SWAT simulation, and imagery from 2000, 2010, and 2018 was used for comparison with modelled hydrological parameters. The model was calibrated (1993–2008) and validated (2009–2018) in the SWAT-CUP after allowing three years (1990–1992) for the warm-up period. The results showed a decrease in WYLD (3.11 mm) and an increase in ET (29.71 mm) and SYLD (from 0.12 t/h to 1.5 t/h). The impact of LULC changes on WYLD, ET, and SYLD showed that the increase in agriculture and built-up areas and bushland, and the contraction of forest led to the hydrological instability of the WRB. These results were further assessed with climatic factors, which revealed a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature by 1 °C. This situation seems to look more adverse in the future, based on the LULC of the year 2036 as predicted by the CA–Markov model. Our study calls for urgent intervention by re-planning LULC and re-assessing hydrological changes timely. View Full-Text

Keywords: hydrological response; LULC change; SWAT model; SWAT-CUP; Wami–Ruvu Basin; Tanzania

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Ngondo, J.; Mango, J.; Nobert, J.; Dubi, A.; Li, X.; Cheng, H. Hydrological Response of the Wami–Ruvu Basin to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes and Its Impacts for the Future. Water 2022, 14, 184. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020184

AMA Style

Ngondo J, Mango J, Nobert J, Dubi A, Li X, Cheng H. Hydrological Response of the Wami–Ruvu Basin to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes and Its Impacts for the Future. Water. 2022; 14(2):184. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020184

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ngondo, Jamila, Joseph Mango, Joel Nobert, Alfonse Dubi, Xiang Li, and Heqin Cheng. 2022. "Hydrological Response of the Wami–Ruvu Basin to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes and Its Impacts for the Future" Water 14, no. 2: 184. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020184

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Author Biographies

Jamila Ngondo

Jamila Ngondo is a PhD student at the East China Normal University, Shanghai, and an assistant lecturer in the Department of Geography and Economics at the Dar es Salaam University College of Education, University of Dar es salaam, Tanzania. Her research interests include physical geography, spatial data modelling, and remote sensing.

Joseph Mango

Joseph Mango is a PhD student at the School of Geographic Sciences of the East China Normal University, Shanghai, and an assistant lecturer in the Department of Transportation and Geotechnical Engineering at the University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. His research interests include land surveying, temporal and spatiotemporal data modelling, and remote sensing.

Joel Nobert

Joel Nobert is a senior lecturer in the Department of Water Resources Engineering at the University of Dar es Salaam. He received a PhD degree from Yokohama National University, Japan, and Master's and Batchelor’s degrees from the University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. His research areas include geospatial modelling, hydrological modelling, and integrated water resources management. He has conducted various studies in the area of water resources management and hydrological modelling.

Alfonse Dubi

Alfonse Muhunira Dubi is a professor of Marine Technology, focusing on port planning and development and engineering as well as coastal and offshore engineering and marine renewable energy. He is a Professional Engineer registered with the Engineers Registration Board (ERB) of Tanzania and a member of the Institution of Engineers, Tanzania. He holds a Dip. Ing. Degree in Structural Engineering, obtained at Sofia in Bulgaria (1981), a graduate diploma in Marine Civil Engineering obtained at the Norwegian Institute of Technology, University of Trondheim (1989), and a Dr. Ing. degree in Marine Technology obtained at the Norwegian Institute of Technology (NTH) at the University of Trondheim, Norway (1995). He has vast teaching and research experience in port planning, development and engineering, marine environmental engineering, physical oceanography, and hydrodynamics. He has mentored students and given lectures on these topics at various local and regional Universities in Tanzania, Mauritius (University of Mauritius), Mozambique (Eduardo Mondlane University), and Namibia (University of Namibia). Prof. Dubi has published various research findings in both local and international journals.

Xiang Li

Xiang Li is a professor at the School of Geographic Sciences of the East China Normal University. His research interests include spatio-temporal modelling, spatial optimization, and spatial big data application. He has published more than 100 research articles in the above areas.

Heqin Cheng

Cheng Heqin is a professor at the State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University. She received a Ph.D from Tongji University, Shanghai, China, a Master's degree from the Geoscience University, Beijing, China, and a Bachelor's degree from the Geoscience University, Wuhan, China. Her research interests include earth system science, global changes in the estuaries and coastal zones, estuarine and coastal morphodynamics and dynamic sedimentation, elemental cycles and their interactions in estuarine and coastal ecosystems, and integrated coastal zone management. She has published more than 130 research articles and three books focusing on the influence of sea level rise on the estuary of the Yangtze River, the discontinuity of sedimentation and stratigraphy, and human action and control in the coastal system (with a focus on fisheries).

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Hydrological Response of the Wami–Ruvu Basin to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes and Its Impacts for the Future

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