Next Article in Journal
To What Extent Can a Sediment Yield Model Be Trusted? A Case Study from the Passaúna Catchment, Brazil
Previous Article in Journal
Solution Selection from a Pareto Optimal Set of Multi-Objective Reservoir Operation via Clustering Operation Processes and Objective Values
Previous Article in Special Issue
A New Approach in Determining the Decadal Common Trends in the Groundwater Table of the Watershed of Lake “Neusiedlersee”
Article

Comparison of Various Growth Curve Models in Characterizing and Predicting Water Table Change after Intensive Mine Dewatering Is Discontinued in an East Central European Karstic Area

1
Department of Geology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter Sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary
2
HYDROSYS Ltd., Mester u. 34, H-1095 Budapest, Hungary
3
Department of Methodology for Business Analyses, Budapest Business School, Alkotmány u. 9-11., H-1054 Budapest, Hungary
4
Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd Research Network (ELKH), Budaörsi út 45., H-1112 Budapest, Hungary
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Timothy D. Scheibe
Water 2021, 13(8), 1047; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081047
Received: 18 January 2021 / Revised: 26 March 2021 / Accepted: 6 April 2021 / Published: 10 April 2021
The modeling of karst water level fluctuations is a crucial task in the water resource management of vulnerable karstic areas. In the Transdanubian Range (East Central Europe, Hungary), from 1950 to 1990, coal and bauxite mining were carried out, with large amounts of karst water being extracted, thus lowering the water table by amounts ranging between 10 and 100 m. Since the cessation of mining activities in the early 1990s, the volume of natural recharge has exceeded the amount of dewatering, and the system has begun to return to its original undisturbed state. This apparently welcome development does, however, bring economic and technical engineering problems. The estimation and prediction of such water level changes is often tackled via the use of deterministic approaches, however, in the present case, it is also addressed with an alternative approach using trend estimation to monthly water level data from 107 karst water wells over the period 1990–2017. To approximate the change in karst water levels, (i) growth curve models were fitted to the monthly data, allowing the estimation of karst water levels, at least as far as 2030. Similarly, this was also done with (ii) deterministic modelling in order to describe the recovery process up to 2030. Specifically, measured and predicted values for karst water level were used to derive interpolated (kriged) maps to compare the forecasting power of the two approaches. Comparing the results of the trend analysis with those of the traditional deterministic modelling results, it is apparent that the two approaches predict similar spatial distribution of water levels, but slightly different future water level values. View Full-Text
Keywords: mining; aquifer recovery; growth curves; trend estimation; forecasting; variography mining; aquifer recovery; growth curves; trend estimation; forecasting; variography
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Modrovits, K.; Csepregi, A.; Kovácsné Székely, I.; Hatvani, I.G.; Kovács, J. Comparison of Various Growth Curve Models in Characterizing and Predicting Water Table Change after Intensive Mine Dewatering Is Discontinued in an East Central European Karstic Area. Water 2021, 13, 1047. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081047

AMA Style

Modrovits K, Csepregi A, Kovácsné Székely I, Hatvani IG, Kovács J. Comparison of Various Growth Curve Models in Characterizing and Predicting Water Table Change after Intensive Mine Dewatering Is Discontinued in an East Central European Karstic Area. Water. 2021; 13(8):1047. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081047

Chicago/Turabian Style

Modrovits, Kamilla; Csepregi, András; Kovácsné Székely, Ilona; Hatvani, István G.; Kovács, József. 2021. "Comparison of Various Growth Curve Models in Characterizing and Predicting Water Table Change after Intensive Mine Dewatering Is Discontinued in an East Central European Karstic Area" Water 13, no. 8: 1047. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081047

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop