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Article

Introducing Non-Stationarity Into the Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves under a Changing Climate

1
Institute of Hydraulic Research (IPH), Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS 15029, Brazil
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London, ON N6G 1G8, Canada
3
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, ON M5C 2R9, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: David Dunkerley
Water 2021, 13(8), 1008; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081008
Received: 16 March 2021 / Revised: 28 March 2021 / Accepted: 1 April 2021 / Published: 7 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance)
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships are traditional tools in water infrastructure planning and design. IDFs are developed under a stationarity assumption which may not be realistic, neither in the present nor in the future, under a changing climatic condition. This paper introduces a framework for generating non-stationary IDFs under climate change, assuming that probability of occurrence of quantiles changes over time. Using Extreme Value Theory, eight trend combinations in Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) parameters using time as covariate are compared with a stationary GEV, to identify the best alternative. Additionally, a modified Equidistance Quantile Matching (EQMNS) method is implemented to develop IDFs for future conditions, introducing non-stationarity where justified, based on the Global Climate Models (GCM). The methodology is applied for Moncton and Shearwater gauges in Northeast Canada. From the results, it is observed that EQMNS is able to capture the trends in the present and to translate them to estimated future rainfall intensities. Comparison of present and future IDFs strongly suggest that return period can be reduced by more than 50 years in the estimates of future rainfall intensities (e.g., historical 100-yr return period extreme rainfall may have frequency smaller than 50-yr under future conditions), raising attention to emerging risks to water infrastructure systems. View Full-Text
Keywords: intensity-duration-frequency curve; non-stationarity; climate change; rainfall intensities intensity-duration-frequency curve; non-stationarity; climate change; rainfall intensities
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MDPI and ACS Style

Feitoza Silva, D.; Simonovic, S.P.; Schardong, A.; Avruch Goldenfum, J. Introducing Non-Stationarity Into the Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves under a Changing Climate. Water 2021, 13, 1008. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081008

AMA Style

Feitoza Silva D, Simonovic SP, Schardong A, Avruch Goldenfum J. Introducing Non-Stationarity Into the Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves under a Changing Climate. Water. 2021; 13(8):1008. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081008

Chicago/Turabian Style

Feitoza Silva, Daniele; Simonovic, Slobodan P.; Schardong, Andre; Avruch Goldenfum, Joel. 2021. "Introducing Non-Stationarity Into the Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves under a Changing Climate" Water 13, no. 8: 1008. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081008

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