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Article

Using Integrated Hydrological Models to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Discharges and Extreme Flood Events in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

by 1,2,3, 4, 4, 5 and 1,2,3,*
1
Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
2
Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
3
Institute of East China Sea, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
4
Ningbo Research Center for Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315800, China
5
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, S-22362 Lund, Sweden
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Naicheng Wu, Qinghua Cai and Wei Ouyang
Water 2021, 13(3), 299; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030299
Received: 2 January 2021 / Revised: 19 January 2021 / Accepted: 19 January 2021 / Published: 26 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Ecohydrological Models and Aquatic Ecosystem Management)
Amongst the impacts of climate change, those arising from extreme hydrological events are expected to cause the greatest impacts. To assess the changes in temperature and precipitation and their impacts on the discharge in the upper Yangtze Basin from pre-industrial to the end of 21st century, four hydrological models were integrated with four global climate models. Results indicated that mean discharge was simulated to increase slightly for all hydrological models forced by all global climate models during 1771–1800 and 1871–1900 relative to the 1971–2000 reference period, whereas the change directions in mean discharge were not consistent among the four global climate models during 2070–2099, with increases from HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, and decreases from GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR. Additionally, our results indicated that decreases in precipitation may always result in the decrease in mean discharge, but increases in precipitation did not always lead to increases in discharge due to high temperature rise. The changes in extreme flood events with different return intervals were also explored. These extreme events were projected to become more intense and frequent in the future, which could have potential devastating impacts on the society and ecosystem in this region. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; hydrologic modeling; global climate models; mean discharge; extreme floods event climate change; hydrologic modeling; global climate models; mean discharge; extreme floods event
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MDPI and ACS Style

Wu, Y.; Luo, G.; Chen, C.; Duan, Z.; Gao, C. Using Integrated Hydrological Models to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Discharges and Extreme Flood Events in the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Water 2021, 13, 299. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030299

AMA Style

Wu Y, Luo G, Chen C, Duan Z, Gao C. Using Integrated Hydrological Models to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Discharges and Extreme Flood Events in the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Water. 2021; 13(3):299. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030299

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wu, Yanjuan, Gang Luo, Cai Chen, Zheng Duan, and Chao Gao. 2021. "Using Integrated Hydrological Models to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Discharges and Extreme Flood Events in the Upper Yangtze River Basin" Water 13, no. 3: 299. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030299

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