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Article

A Framework to Assess the Reliability of a Multipurpose Reservoir under Uncertainty in Land Use

Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Josue Medellin-Azuara
Water 2021, 13(3), 287; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030287
Received: 17 December 2020 / Revised: 15 January 2021 / Accepted: 19 January 2021 / Published: 25 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Management for Agricultural, Environmental and Urban Uses)
Socioeconomic development in watersheds lead to land-use changes, which can alter water and sediment inflows into reservoirs, leading to uncertainty in water supply reliability. A modelling framework coupling the Soil and Water Assessments Tool (SWAT) and the @RISK genetic algorithm optimisation tool was developed to optimise water allocation and estimate water supply reliability under uncertainty in future land-use. The multi-purpose Nuicoc reservoir in Vietnam was used as a case study. Modelling results showed that an expansion of the urban areas by 10% and conversion of 5% of the forest to agricultural areas produced the highest water releases for downstream demands of all simulated scenarios, with 5 Mcm/year greater water releases than the baseline for the case where sedimentation was not considered. However, when sedimentation was considered, it generated the greatest decrease in water releases, with 6.25 Mcm/year less than the baseline. Additionally, it was determined that spatial distribution of land-use significantly affect sediment inflows into the reservoir, highlighting the importance of targeted sediment management. This demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed framework for decision-makers in assessing the impact of possible land-use changes on the reservoir operation. View Full-Text
Keywords: reservoir operations; water reliability; genetic algorithm; land-use change; sedimentation reservoir operations; water reliability; genetic algorithm; land-use change; sedimentation
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MDPI and ACS Style

Nguyen, A.; Cochrane, T.A.; Pahlow, M. A Framework to Assess the Reliability of a Multipurpose Reservoir under Uncertainty in Land Use. Water 2021, 13, 287. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030287

AMA Style

Nguyen A, Cochrane TA, Pahlow M. A Framework to Assess the Reliability of a Multipurpose Reservoir under Uncertainty in Land Use. Water. 2021; 13(3):287. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030287

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nguyen, Anh, Thomas A. Cochrane, and Markus Pahlow. 2021. "A Framework to Assess the Reliability of a Multipurpose Reservoir under Uncertainty in Land Use" Water 13, no. 3: 287. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030287

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