Next Article in Journal
Estimation of Heavy Metal Concentrations in the Water of Urban Lakes in the Russian Arctic (Murmansk)
Next Article in Special Issue
Impacts of Rainfall Data Aggregation Time on Pluvial Flood Hazard in Urban Watersheds
Previous Article in Journal
Advanced Modeling Strategies for Hydraulic Engineering and River Research
Previous Article in Special Issue
A Review on Rainfall Data Resolution and Its Role in the Hydrological Practice
Article

Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours

1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Perugia, via G. Duranti 93, 06125 Perugia, Italy
2
National Research Council, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ataur Rahman
Water 2021, 13(22), 3264; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223264
Received: 11 October 2021 / Revised: 9 November 2021 / Accepted: 16 November 2021 / Published: 17 November 2021
The main challenge of this paper is to demonstrate that one of the most frequently conducted analyses in the climate change field could be affected by significant errors, due to the use of rainfall data characterized by coarse time-resolution. In fact, in the scientific literature, there are many studies to verify the possible impacts of climate change on extreme rainfall, and particularly on annual maximum rainfall depths, Hd, characterized by duration d equal to 24 h, due to the significant length of the corresponding series. Typically, these studies do not specify the temporal aggregation, ta, of the rainfall data on which maxima rely, although it is well known that the use of rainfall data with coarse ta can lead to significant underestimates of Hd. The effect of ta on the estimation of trends in annual maximum depths with d = 24 h, Hd=24 h, over the last 100 years is examined. We have used a published series of Hd=24 h derived by long-term historical rainfall observations with various temporal aggregations, due to the progress of recording systems through time, at 39 representative meteorological stations located in an inland region of Central Italy. Then, by using a recently developed mathematical relation between average underestimation error and the ratio ta/d, each Hd=24 h value has been corrected. Successively, commonly used climatic trend tests based on different approaches, including least-squares linear trend analysis, Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s method, have been applied to the “uncorrected” and “corrected” series. The results show that the underestimation of Hd=24 h values with coarse ta plays a significant role in the analysis of the effects of climatic change on extreme rainfalls. Specifically, the correction of the Hd=24 h values can change the sign of the trend from positive to negative. Furthermore, it has been observed that the innovative Sen’s method (based on a graphical approach) is less sensitive to corrections of the Hd values than the least-squares linear trend and the Mann–Kendall method. In any case, the analysis of Hd series containing potentially underestimated values, especially when d = 24 h, can lead to misleading results. Therefore, before conducting any trend analysis, Hd values determined from rainfall data characterized by coarse temporal resolution should always be corrected. View Full-Text
Keywords: rainfall data measurements; rainfall time resolution; extreme rainfall; annual maximum rainfall depths; trend analysis rainfall data measurements; rainfall time resolution; extreme rainfall; annual maximum rainfall depths; trend analysis
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Morbidelli, R.; Saltalippi, C.; Dari, J.; Flammini, A. Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours. Water 2021, 13, 3264. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223264

AMA Style

Morbidelli R, Saltalippi C, Dari J, Flammini A. Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours. Water. 2021; 13(22):3264. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223264

Chicago/Turabian Style

Morbidelli, Renato, Carla Saltalippi, Jacopo Dari, and Alessia Flammini. 2021. "Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours" Water 13, no. 22: 3264. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223264

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop