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Article

Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams

1
Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 115, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
2
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Xing Fang
Water 2021, 13(21), 3002; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213002
Received: 14 September 2021 / Revised: 3 October 2021 / Accepted: 13 October 2021 / Published: 26 October 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Quality Modeling and Monitoring)
Holistic water quality models to support decision-making in lowland catchments with competing stakeholder perspectives are still limited. To address this gap, an integrated system dynamics model for water quantity and quality (including stream temperature, dissolved oxygen, and macronutrients) was developed. Adaptable plug-n-play modules handle the complexity (sources, pathways) related to both urban and agricultural/natural land-use features. The model was applied in a data-rich catchment to uncover key insights into the dynamics governing water quality in a peri-urban stream. Performance indicators demonstrate the model successfully captured key water quantity/quality variations and interactions (with, e.g., Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency ranging from very good to satisfactory). Model simulation and sensitivity results could then highlight the influence of stream temperature variations and enhanced heterotrophic respiration in summer, causing low dissolved oxygen levels and potentially affecting ecological quality. Probabilistic uncertainty results combined with a rich dataset show high potential for ammonium uptake in the macrophyte-dominated reach. The results further suggest phosphorus remobilization from streambed sediment could become an important diffuse nutrient source should other sources (e.g., urban effluents) be mitigated. These findings are especially important for the design of green transition solutions, where single-objective management strategies may negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. View Full-Text
Keywords: system dynamics; peri-urban areas; lowland catchments; water quality model; modeling; uncertainty; green transition system dynamics; peri-urban areas; lowland catchments; water quality model; modeling; uncertainty; green transition
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MDPI and ACS Style

Lemaire, G.G.; Carnohan, S.A.; Grand, S.; Mazel, V.; Bjerg, P.L.; McKnight, U.S. Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams. Water 2021, 13, 3002. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213002

AMA Style

Lemaire GG, Carnohan SA, Grand S, Mazel V, Bjerg PL, McKnight US. Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams. Water. 2021; 13(21):3002. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213002

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lemaire, Gregory G., Shane A. Carnohan, Stanislav Grand, Victor Mazel, Poul L. Bjerg, and Ursula S. McKnight. 2021. "Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams" Water 13, no. 21: 3002. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213002

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