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Article

Uncertain Analysis of Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Zanhuang County, North China Plain

1
Faculty of Architecture, Civil and Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
2
Hebei Institute of Water Science, Shijiazhuang 050051, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Carmen Teodosiu
Water 2021, 13(20), 2804; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202804
Received: 31 August 2021 / Revised: 4 October 2021 / Accepted: 7 October 2021 / Published: 9 October 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue River Ecological Restoration and Groundwater Artificial Recharge)
The scientific and accurate evaluation of water resources carrying capacity has good social, environmental and resource benefits. Reasonable selection of evaluation parameters is the key step to realize efficient and sustainable development of water resources. Taking Zanhuang County in the North China Plain as the research area, this study selected fuzzy comprehensive evaluation models with different weights in the established evaluation index framework to explore the sources of uncertainty affecting the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity. By using the sensitivity analysis method of index weight, the index with the biggest influence factor on the evaluation result is selected to reduce the uncertainty problems such as index redundancy and small correlation degree. The results show that the correlation and reliable of comprehensive evaluation value obtained by different weight methods is different. The evaluation result obtained by using the analytic hierarchy process is more relevant than the entropy weight method, and it is more consistent with the actual load-bearing situation. The study of sensitivity index shows that water area index is the biggest factor affecting the change of evaluation results, and water resources subsystem and socio-economic subsystem play a dominant role in the whole evaluation framework. The results show that strengthening the data quality control of index assignment and weight method is helpful to reduce the error of water resources carrying capacity evaluation. It can also provide scientific basis for the improvement of fuzzy evaluation model. View Full-Text
Keywords: water resources carrying capacity; uncertainty analysis; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model; weight sensitivity analysis water resources carrying capacity; uncertainty analysis; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model; weight sensitivity analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ge, Y.; Wu, J.; Zhang, D.; Jia, R.; Yang, H. Uncertain Analysis of Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Zanhuang County, North China Plain. Water 2021, 13, 2804. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202804

AMA Style

Ge Y, Wu J, Zhang D, Jia R, Yang H. Uncertain Analysis of Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Zanhuang County, North China Plain. Water. 2021; 13(20):2804. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202804

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ge, Yinxin, Jin Wu, Dasheng Zhang, Ruitao Jia, and Haotian Yang. 2021. "Uncertain Analysis of Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Zanhuang County, North China Plain" Water 13, no. 20: 2804. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202804

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