Next Article in Journal
The Phenomenological Theory of Turbulence and the Scour Evolution Downstream of Grade-Control Structures under Steady Discharges
Previous Article in Journal
Developing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus for Food and Energy Scenarios with the World Trade Model
Previous Article in Special Issue
Regional and Seasonal Precipitation and Drought Trends in Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin
Article

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

1
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3
Organization of African Academic Doctors (OAAD), Off Kamiti Road Nairobi, Nairobi P.O. Box 25305-00100, Kenya
4
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
5
Energy, Climate, and Environment Science Group, Imo State Polytechnic Umuagwo, Ohaji, Owerri 1472, Imo State, Nigeria
6
Department of Geosciences, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
7
Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Wuxi 214105, China
8
Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Private Bag 16, Palapye Plot 10071, Botswana
9
International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Chang Huang
Water 2021, 13(17), 2358; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172358
Received: 17 July 2021 / Revised: 22 August 2021 / Accepted: 23 August 2021 / Published: 27 August 2021
This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies. View Full-Text
Keywords: CMIP6; extreme precipitation; projections; scenarios; East Africa CMIP6; extreme precipitation; projections; scenarios; East Africa
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Ayugi, B.; Dike, V.; Ngoma, H.; Babaousmail, H.; Mumo, R.; Ongoma, V. Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models. Water 2021, 13, 2358. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172358

AMA Style

Ayugi B, Dike V, Ngoma H, Babaousmail H, Mumo R, Ongoma V. Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models. Water. 2021; 13(17):2358. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172358

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ayugi, Brian, Victor Dike, Hamida Ngoma, Hassen Babaousmail, Richard Mumo, and Victor Ongoma. 2021. "Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models" Water 13, no. 17: 2358. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172358

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop