Risk Assessment of Water Resources and Energy Security Based on the Cloud Model: A Case Study of China in 2020
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Overview of the Study Area and Data Preparation
2.2. The Liang–Kleeman Information Flow Method
2.3. Assessment Method Based on the Normal Cloud Model
3. Results
3.1. Data Sources and Analysis
3.2. Identification and Weight Determination of Risk Factors
3.3. Prediction of Risk Factor Value
3.4. Risk Assessment Results Based on the Cloud Model and Discussion
4. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Period Types | Precipitation (mm) | Surface Water Resources (108 m3) |
---|---|---|
P = 25% (wet year) | 647.08 | 14.91 |
P = 50% (normal year) | 547.39 | 9.95 |
P = 75% (dry year) | 447.70 | 6.96 |
P = 95% (extraordinarily dry year) | 304.29 | 5.11 |
Indicator | Average Relative Error | Relative Precision | C | Level |
---|---|---|---|---|
Water consumption per 10,000-yuan GDP/d5 | 647.08 | 14.91 | 0.061 | Good |
Water supply per capita/d6 | 547.39 | 9.95 | 0.257 | Good |
Indicators | Level Ⅰ | Level Ⅱ | Level Ⅲ | Level Ⅳ | Level Ⅴ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Water consumption per 10,000-yuan GDP | 0~15 | 15~50 | 50~100 | 100~300 | 300~750 |
Water consumption per capita | ≥500 | 400~500 | 300~400 | 200~300 | 0~200 |
precipitation | ≥1000 | 750~1000 | 500~750 | 250~500 | 0~250 |
Runoff coefficient | ≥0.32 | 0.29~0.32 | 0.27~0.29 | 0.24~0.27 | 0~0.24 |
Proportion of secondary industry | 0~35 | 35~40 | 40~46 | 48~46 | ≥48 |
Population density | 0~250 | 250~300 | 300~350 | 350~400 | ≥400 |
Energy reserve rate | ≥2.0 | 1.0~2.0 | 0.6~1.0 | 0.2~0.6 | 0~0.2 |
Energy consumption per 10,000-yuan GDP | 0~250 | 250~500 | 500~750 | 750~1000 | ≥1000 |
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Yang, Y.; Wang, H.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, C. Risk Assessment of Water Resources and Energy Security Based on the Cloud Model: A Case Study of China in 2020. Water 2021, 13, 1823. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131823
Yang Y, Wang H, Zhang Y, Wang C. Risk Assessment of Water Resources and Energy Security Based on the Cloud Model: A Case Study of China in 2020. Water. 2021; 13(13):1823. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131823
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Yafeng, Hongrui Wang, Yuanyuan Zhang, and Cheng Wang. 2021. "Risk Assessment of Water Resources and Energy Security Based on the Cloud Model: A Case Study of China in 2020" Water 13, no. 13: 1823. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131823