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Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function

by 1,2,3, 1,2,3, 1,2,3 and 1,2,3,*
1
School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
2
Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130117, China
3
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Momcilo Markus
Water 2021, 13(11), 1445; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111445
Received: 20 April 2021 / Revised: 13 May 2021 / Accepted: 19 May 2021 / Published: 21 May 2021
Precipitation is low and drought occurs frequently in Northern Shaanxi. To study the characteristics and occurrence and development of drought events in Northern Shaanxi is beneficial to the prevention and control of drought disasters. Based on the monthly rainfall data of 10 meteorological stations in Northern Shaanxi from 1960 to 2019, the characteristic variables of drought events at each meteorological station in Northern Shaanxi were extracted by using run theory and copula function. The joint probability distribution and recurrence period were obtained by combining the duration and intensity of drought, and the relationship between drought characteristics and crop drought affected area was studied. The results show that (1) from 1960 to 2019, drought events mainly occurred in Northern Shaanxi with long duration and low severity, short duration and high severity, or short duration and low severity, among which the frequency of drought events that occurred in Yuyang and Baota districts was higher. The frequency of light drought and extreme drought was more in the south and less in the north, while the frequency of moderate drought and severe drought was more in the north and less in the south. (2) The optimal edge distribution of drought intensity and drought duration in Northern Shaanxi is generalized Pareto distribution, and the optimal fitting function is Frank copula function. The greater the duration and intensity of drought, the greater the cumulative probability and return period. (3) The actual recurrence interval and the theoretical recurrence interval of drought events in Northern Shaanxi were close, and the error was only 0.1–0.3a. The results of the joint return period can accurately reflect the actual situation, and this study can provide effective guidance for the prevention and management of agricultural dryland in Northern Shaanxi. View Full-Text
Keywords: SPI; run theory; drought; copula; Northern Shaanxi; joint return period SPI; run theory; drought; copula; Northern Shaanxi; joint return period
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MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, J.; Rong, G.; Li, K.; Zhang, J. Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function. Water 2021, 13, 1445. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111445

AMA Style

Wang J, Rong G, Li K, Zhang J. Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function. Water. 2021; 13(11):1445. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111445

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Junhui, Guangzhi Rong, Kaiwei Li, and Jiquan Zhang. 2021. "Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function" Water 13, no. 11: 1445. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111445

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