Next Article in Journal
Effect of Open Boundary Conditions and Bottom Roughness on Tidal Modeling around the West Coast of Korea
Next Article in Special Issue
Comparing Trends in Modeled and Observed Streamflows at Minimally Altered Basins in the United States
Previous Article in Journal
Prediction of Mean Wave Overtopping Discharge Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees
Previous Article in Special Issue
Evaluation of Uncertainty Intervals for Daily, Statistically Derived Streamflow Estimates at Ungaged Basins across the Continental U.S.
Article

Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States

1
U.S. Geological Survey Colorado Water Science Center, Denver, CO 80225, USA
2
Private Consultant
3
Climate Change Response Program, National Park Service, Fort Collins, CO 80525, USA
4
U.S. Geological Survey Water Mission Area, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Denver, CO 80225, USA
5
U.S. Geological Survey Water Mission Area, Rapid City, SD 57702, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(6), 1704; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061704
Received: 30 April 2020 / Revised: 4 June 2020 / Accepted: 9 June 2020 / Published: 15 June 2020
The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. More effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981–1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in air temperature (T), precipitation (p), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T by 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 °C or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 p indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in p in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases, with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence, in many NPS parks, R is projected to decrease even when p is projected to increase because of increasing T in all parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples. View Full-Text
Keywords: national parks; continental models; hydro-climatic change; water resources management national parks; continental models; hydro-climatic change; water resources management
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Battaglin, W.; Hay, L.; Lawrence, D.J.; McCabe, G.; Norton, P. Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States. Water 2020, 12, 1704. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061704

AMA Style

Battaglin W, Hay L, Lawrence DJ, McCabe G, Norton P. Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States. Water. 2020; 12(6):1704. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061704

Chicago/Turabian Style

Battaglin, William, Lauren Hay, David J. Lawrence, Greg McCabe, and Parker Norton. 2020. "Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States" Water 12, no. 6: 1704. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061704

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop