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Open AccessArticle

Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models for Precipitation Analysis over Kenya, East Africa

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Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
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National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
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School of Computer and Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu, Nanjing 210044, China
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Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Clement Hill Road, Kampala P.O. Box 7025, Uganda
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Research and Development Center of Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta 10720, Indonesia
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School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
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School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment, University of the South Pacific, Laucala Campus Private Bag, Suva 61321, Fiji
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(3), 801; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030801
Received: 9 February 2020 / Revised: 10 March 2020 / Accepted: 11 March 2020 / Published: 13 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
This study uses the quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC) method to correct the bias in five regional climate models (RCMs) from the latest output of the Rossby Center Climate Regional Model (RCA4) over Kenya. The outputs were validated using various scalar metrics such as root-mean-square difference (RMSD), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias. The study found that the QMBC algorithm demonstrates varying performance among the models in the study domain. The results show that most of the models exhibit reasonable improvement after corrections at seasonal and annual timescales. Specifically, the European Community Earth-System (EC-EARTH) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) models depict remarkable improvement as compared to other models. On the contrary, the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Model CM5A-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR) model shows little improvement across the rainfall seasons (i.e., March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND)). The projections forced with bias-corrected historical simulations tallied observed values demonstrate satisfactory simulations as compared to the uncorrected RCMs output models. This study has demonstrated that using QMBC on outputs from RCA4 is an important intermediate step to improve climate data before performing any regional impact analysis. The corrected models may be used in projections of drought and flood extreme events over the study area. View Full-Text
Keywords: quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC); regional climate models (RCMs); Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4); drought; flood; Kenya quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC); regional climate models (RCMs); Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4); drought; flood; Kenya
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ayugi, B.; Tan, G.; Ruoyun, N.; Babaousmail, H.; Ojara, M.; Wido, H.; Mumo, L.; Ngoma, N.H.; Nooni, I.K.; Ongoma, V. Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models for Precipitation Analysis over Kenya, East Africa. Water 2020, 12, 801. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030801

AMA Style

Ayugi B, Tan G, Ruoyun N, Babaousmail H, Ojara M, Wido H, Mumo L, Ngoma NH, Nooni IK, Ongoma V. Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models for Precipitation Analysis over Kenya, East Africa. Water. 2020; 12(3):801. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030801

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ayugi, Brian; Tan, Guirong; Ruoyun, Niu; Babaousmail, Hassen; Ojara, Moses; Wido, Hanggoro; Mumo, Lucia; Ngoma, Nadoya H.; Nooni, Isaac K.; Ongoma, Victor. 2020. "Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models for Precipitation Analysis over Kenya, East Africa" Water 12, no. 3: 801. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030801

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