Next Article in Journal
Assessment of Spatial Variation in River Water Quality of the Baiyangdian Basin (China) during Environmental Water Release Period of Upstream Reservoirs
Next Article in Special Issue
Rainfall Erosivity in Soil Erosion Processes
Previous Article in Journal
Study on the Nearshore Evolution of Regular Waves under Steady Wind
Previous Article in Special Issue
Evaluation of Hydromulches as an Erosion Control Measure Using Laboratory-Scale Experiments
Article

Estimating Current and Future Rainfall Erosivity in Greece Using Regional Climate Models and Spatial Quantile Regression Forests

Department of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(3), 687; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030687
Received: 14 February 2020 / Revised: 29 February 2020 / Accepted: 1 March 2020 / Published: 3 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rainfall Erosivity in Soil Erosion Processes)
A future variation of precipitation characteristics, due to climate change, will affect the ability of rainfall to precipitate soil loss. In this paper, the monthly and annual values of rainfall erosivity (R) in Greece are calculated, for the historical period 1971–2000, using precipitation records that suffer from a significant volume of missing values. In order to overcome the data limitations, an intermediate step is applied using the calculation of monthly erosivity density, which is more robust to the presence of missing values. Spatial Quantile Regression Forests, a data driven algorithm that imitates kriging without the need of strict statistical assumptions, was utilized and validated, in order to create maps of R and its uncertainty using error propagation. The monthly average precipitation for the historical period 1971–2000 estimated by five (5) Global Circulation Models-Regional Climatic Models were validated against observed values and the one with the best performance was used to estimate projected changes of R in Greece for the future time period 2011–2100 and two different greenhouse gases concentration scenarios. The main findings of this study are: (a) the mean annual R in Greece is 1039 MJ·mm/ha/h/y, with a range between 405.1 and 3160.2 MJ·mm/ha/h/y. The highest values are calculated at the mountain range of Pindos and the lowest at central Greece; (b) the monthly R maps adhere to the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation depth and intensities over the country; (c) the projected R values, as an average over Greece, follow the projected changes of precipitation of climatic models, but not in a spatially homogenous way. View Full-Text
Keywords: rainfall erosivity; erosivity density; climate change; regional climate models; quantile regression forests; Greece rainfall erosivity; erosivity density; climate change; regional climate models; quantile regression forests; Greece
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Vantas, K.; Sidiropoulos, E.; Loukas, A. Estimating Current and Future Rainfall Erosivity in Greece Using Regional Climate Models and Spatial Quantile Regression Forests. Water 2020, 12, 687. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030687

AMA Style

Vantas K, Sidiropoulos E, Loukas A. Estimating Current and Future Rainfall Erosivity in Greece Using Regional Climate Models and Spatial Quantile Regression Forests. Water. 2020; 12(3):687. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030687

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vantas, Konstantinos, Epaminondas Sidiropoulos, and Athanasios Loukas. 2020. "Estimating Current and Future Rainfall Erosivity in Greece Using Regional Climate Models and Spatial Quantile Regression Forests" Water 12, no. 3: 687. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030687

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop