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Open AccessArticle

Modellingof Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)

1
Laboratory of Maritime Engineering, UPC-Barcelona Tech, D1 Campus Nord, Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
2
Puertos del Estado, Área del Medio Físico, Avenida del Partenón, 10, 28042 Madrid, Spain
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UPC-Barcelona Tech, Campus Nord, Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
4
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Augusto Imperatore, 16, 73100 Lecce, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Current address: Puertos del Estado, Área del Medio Físico, Avenida del Partenon, 10, 28042 Madrid, Spain.
Water 2020, 12(2), 472; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020472
Received: 9 December 2019 / Revised: 4 February 2020 / Accepted: 6 February 2020 / Published: 10 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effect of Climate Change on Coastal Hydrodynamics)
Storm surges are one of the main drivers for extreme flooding at the coastal areas. Such events can be characterized with the maximum level in an extreme storm surge event (surge peak), as well as the duration of the event. Surge projections come from a barotropic model for the 1950–2100 period, under a severe climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) at the northeastern Spanish coast. The relationship of extreme storm surges to three large-scale climate patterns was assessed: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic Pattern (EAWR), and Scandinavian Pattern (SC). The statistical model was built using two different strategies. In Strategy #1, the joint probability density was characterized by a moving-average series of stationary Archimedean copula, whereas in Strategy #2, the joint probability density was characterized by a non-stationary probit copula. The parameters of the marginal distribution and the copula were defined with generalized additive models. The analysis showed that the mean values of surge peak and event duration were constant and were independent of the proposed climate patterns. However, the values of NAO and SC influenced the threshold and the storminess of extreme events. According to Strategy #1, the variance of the surge peak and event duration increased with a fast shift of negative SC and a positive NAO, respectively. Alternatively, Strategy #2 showed that the variance of the surge peak increased with a positive EAWR. Both strategies coincided in that the joint dependence of the maximum surge level and the duration of extreme surges ranged from low to medium degree. Its mean value was stationary, and its variability was linked to the geographical location. Finally, Strategy #2 helped determine that this dependence increased with negative NAO.
Keywords: storm surge; Mediterranean; non-stationarity; copula; generalized additive model; probit storm surge; Mediterranean; non-stationarity; copula; generalized additive model; probit
MDPI and ACS Style

Lin-Ye, J.; García-León, M.; Gràcia, V.; Ortego, M.I.; Lionello, P.; Conte, D.; Pérez-Gómez, B.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A. Modellingof Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain). Water 2020, 12, 472.

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