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Open AccessArticle

Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis

1
Civil, Human and Environmental Engineering Course, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, 1-13-27, Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8551, Japan
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, 1-13-27, Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8551, Japan
3
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13 W8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8628, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(10), 2727; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102727
Received: 15 September 2020 / Revised: 26 September 2020 / Accepted: 27 September 2020 / Published: 29 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
Nonstationarity in hydrological variables has been identified throughout Japan in recent years. As a result, the reliability of designs derived from using method based on the assumption of stationary might deteriorate. Non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis is among the measures to counter this possibility. Using this method, time variations in the probable hydrological quantity can be estimated using a non-stationary extreme value distribution model with time as an explanatory variable. In this study, we build a new method for constructing the confidence interval regarding the non-stationary extreme value distribution by applying a theory of probability limit method test. Furthermore, by introducing a confidence interval based on probability limit method test into the non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis, uncertainty in design rainfall because of lack of observation information was quantified, and it is shown that assessment pertaining to both the occurrence risk of extremely heavy rainfall and changes in the trend of extreme rainfall accompanied with climate change is possible. View Full-Text
Keywords: probability limit method test; confidence interval; uncertainty; non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis; climate change probability limit method test; confidence interval; uncertainty; non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis; climate change
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Shimizu, K.; Yamada, T.; Yamada, T.J. Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis. Water 2020, 12, 2727.

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