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Estimating Peak Daily Water Demand under Different Climate Change and Vacation Scenarios

KWR Water Research Institute, Groningenhaven 7, 3433 PE Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
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Water 2019, 11(9), 1874; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091874
Received: 4 July 2019 / Revised: 29 August 2019 / Accepted: 4 September 2019 / Published: 9 September 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Use and Scarcity)
Extremes in drinking water demand are commonly quantified with a so called peaking factor, a probabilistic ratio expressing the daily water demand relative to its annual average corresponding with a once in ten year recurrence period. In this study, we present a modeling framework that allows one to quantify of the impact of climate change and variations in vacation absence on the peaking factor for specific geographic regions. The framework consists of a support vector regression model that simulates daily water demand as a function of meteorological parameters and vacation absence, coupled to an extreme value model that translates simulation results to a peaking factor. After initial model development, we simulated the effects of different climate change/vacation scenarios for 2050 on eight water supply areas in the Netherlands and Belgium. We found that on average there is a net increase in water demand of 0.8% in 2050 and a 6.5% increase in peak demand compared to the reference period. View Full-Text
Keywords: peak demand forecasting; tourism; climate change; machine learning; extreme value analysis; drinking water peak demand forecasting; tourism; climate change; machine learning; extreme value analysis; drinking water
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Vonk, E.; Cirkel, D.G.; Blokker, M. Estimating Peak Daily Water Demand under Different Climate Change and Vacation Scenarios. Water 2019, 11, 1874.

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