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Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Department of Agricultural Economics and CEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSIAAB, Avda. Puerta Hierro 2, 28040 Madrid, Spain
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Water 2019, 11(9), 1854; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091854
Received: 11 July 2019 / Revised: 31 August 2019 / Accepted: 2 September 2019 / Published: 5 September 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Water Management in Agriculture under Global Change)
Future agricultural development will be challenged by the impacts of climate change on water, which are expected to be particularly strong in southern European regions. Thus, exploring interrelations between agriculture and water under climate change is essential to frame informed policies that ensure sustainable water management while enhancing food production. Nevertheless, studies that address future agriculture development focus on climate-induced changes in crop productivity and often disregard the water dimension. In this research, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis of agricultural development to drivers of water use in Andalusia in 2050 based on outcomes from the CAPRI-Water model. The results from the analysis show that water cost is the most determinant factor in shaping agricultural land, offsetting the impact of the driver of water availability. In contrast, irrigation water use is driven not only by water cost but also by irrigation efficiency. The magnitude of the sensitivity to these drivers differs significantly across crops. Policies aimed at improving resource use efficiency can contribute to strengthening the resilience and adaptation capacity of future agricultural systems to climate change. To achieve this goal, the policies must consider crop sensitivity to irrigation costs and the potential rebound effect. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; CAPRI Water; water availability; irrigation efficiency; water cost climate change; CAPRI Water; water availability; irrigation efficiency; water cost
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Martinez, P.; Blanco, M. Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain). Water 2019, 11, 1854.

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