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Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia

by 1 and 2,*
Penrith City Council, Penrith, NSW 2750, Australia
School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University, Kingswood, NSW 2750, Australia
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(8), 1734;
Received: 17 July 2019 / Revised: 8 August 2019 / Accepted: 15 August 2019 / Published: 20 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Modelling: Regional Flood Estimation and GIS Based Techniques)
This study performs a simultaneous evaluation of gradual and abrupt changes in Australian annual maximum (AM) flood data using a modified Mann–Kendall and Pettitt change-point detection test. The results show that AM flood data in eastern Australia is dominated by downward trends. Depending on the significance level and study period under consideration, about 8% to 33% of stations are characterised by significant trends, where over 85% of detected significant trends are downward. Furthermore, the change-point analysis shows that the percentages of stations experiencing one abrupt change in the mean or in the direction of the trend are in the range of 8% to 33%, of which over 50% occurred in 1991, with a mode in 1995. Prominent resemblance between the monotonic trend and change-point analysis results is also noticed, in which a negative shift in the mean is observed at catchments that exhibited downward trends, and a positive shift in the mean is observed in the case of upward trends. Trend analysis of the segmented AM flood series based on their corresponding date indicates an absence of a significant trend, which may be attributed to the false detection of trends when the AM flood data are characterised by a shift in its mean. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; trend detection; Mann–Kendall test; Pettitt change-point test; annual maximum flood climate change; trend detection; Mann–Kendall test; Pettitt change-point test; annual maximum flood
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ishak, E.; Rahman, A. Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia. Water 2019, 11, 1734.

AMA Style

Ishak E, Rahman A. Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia. Water. 2019; 11(8):1734.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ishak, Elias, and Ataur Rahman. 2019. "Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia" Water 11, no. 8: 1734.

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