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Open AccessArticle

Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia

by Elias Ishak 1 and Ataur Rahman 2,*
1
Penrith City Council, Penrith, NSW 2750, Australia
2
School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University, Kingswood, NSW 2750, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(8), 1734; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081734
Received: 17 July 2019 / Revised: 8 August 2019 / Accepted: 15 August 2019 / Published: 20 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Modelling: Regional Flood Estimation and GIS Based Techniques)
This study performs a simultaneous evaluation of gradual and abrupt changes in Australian annual maximum (AM) flood data using a modified Mann–Kendall and Pettitt change-point detection test. The results show that AM flood data in eastern Australia is dominated by downward trends. Depending on the significance level and study period under consideration, about 8% to 33% of stations are characterised by significant trends, where over 85% of detected significant trends are downward. Furthermore, the change-point analysis shows that the percentages of stations experiencing one abrupt change in the mean or in the direction of the trend are in the range of 8% to 33%, of which over 50% occurred in 1991, with a mode in 1995. Prominent resemblance between the monotonic trend and change-point analysis results is also noticed, in which a negative shift in the mean is observed at catchments that exhibited downward trends, and a positive shift in the mean is observed in the case of upward trends. Trend analysis of the segmented AM flood series based on their corresponding date indicates an absence of a significant trend, which may be attributed to the false detection of trends when the AM flood data are characterised by a shift in its mean. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; trend detection; Mann–Kendall test; Pettitt change-point test; annual maximum flood climate change; trend detection; Mann–Kendall test; Pettitt change-point test; annual maximum flood
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Ishak, E.; Rahman, A. Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia. Water 2019, 11, 1734.

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