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Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

1
College of Water Resources Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
3
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
4
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(7), 1365; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071365
Received: 14 May 2019 / Revised: 19 June 2019 / Accepted: 28 June 2019 / Published: 30 June 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydraulics)
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Abstract

To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases. View Full-Text
Keywords: cascade dam system; flood risk analysis; dam breaking cascade dam system; flood risk analysis; dam breaking
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Cai, W.; Zhu, X.; Peng, A.; Wang, X.; Fan, Z. Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China. Water 2019, 11, 1365.

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