Next Article in Journal
Precipitation Variations under a Changing Climate from 1961–2015 in the Source Region of the Indus River
Previous Article in Journal
Hybrid Methodology for the Estimation of Crop Coefficients Based on Satellite Imagery and Ground-Based Measurements
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle

Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

College of Water Resources Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(7), 1365;
Received: 14 May 2019 / Revised: 19 June 2019 / Accepted: 28 June 2019 / Published: 30 June 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydraulics)
PDF [5450 KB, uploaded 8 July 2019]
  |     |  


To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases. View Full-Text
Keywords: cascade dam system; flood risk analysis; dam breaking cascade dam system; flood risk analysis; dam breaking

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Cai, W.; Zhu, X.; Peng, A.; Wang, X.; Fan, Z. Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China. Water 2019, 11, 1365.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Water EISSN 2073-4441 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top