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Scenario Analysis of Initial Water-Rights Allocation to Improve Regional Water Productivities

1
Institute of River and Lake Environment, Heilongjiang Provincial Hydraulic Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
2
School of Labor of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
3
Donlinks School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
4
School of Fundamental Science, Beijing Polytechnic, Beijing 100176, China
5
College of Environment Science and Engineering, University of Qingdao, Qingdao 266071, China
6
School of Environment and Municipal Engineering, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(6), 1312; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061312
Received: 16 April 2019 / Revised: 16 June 2019 / Accepted: 20 June 2019 / Published: 25 June 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

In this study, an initial water-rights allocation (IWRA) model is proposed for adjusting the traditional initial water-rights empowerment model based on previous water intake permits, with the aim of improving the productivity of water resources under population growth and economic development. A stochastic scenario with Laplace criterion mixed fuzzy programming (SSLF) is developed into an IWRA model to deal with multiple uncertainties and complexities, which includes dynamic water demand, changing water policy, adjusted tradable water rights, the precise risk attitude of policymakers, development of the economy, and their interactions. SSLF not only deals with fuzziness in probability distributions with high satisfaction degrees, but also reflects the risk attitudes of policymakers with the Laplace criterion, which can handle the probability of scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed IWRA model with the SSLF method is applied to a practical case in an alpine region of China. The results of adjusted initial water rights, optimal water-right allocation, changed industrial structure, and system benefits under various scenarios associated with risk attitudes and water productivity improvement were obtained and analyzed. It was found that the current initial water-rights allocation scheme based on previous intake water permits is not efficient, and this can be modified by the IWRA model. Based on the strategies of drinking safety and ecological security, the main tradeoff between agricultural and industrial water rights can facilitate optimization of the current initial water-rights allocation. This can assist policymakers in producing an effective plan to promote water productivity and water resource management in a robust and reliable manner. View Full-Text
Keywords: water rights; stochastic scenario analysis; fuzzy credibility programming; optimization; alpine region water rights; stochastic scenario analysis; fuzzy credibility programming; optimization; alpine region
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Li, T.; Zeng, X.; Chen, C.; Kong, X.; Zhang, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhang, F.; Dong, H. Scenario Analysis of Initial Water-Rights Allocation to Improve Regional Water Productivities. Water 2019, 11, 1312.

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